Anything could happen, but I honestly believe that there is value in Bitcoin and I also think that the market being developed underground will support its use regardless of how it fluctuates during its immature phase.
I have a personal price target for Bitcoin at a little less than a dollar. How long will it take to get there? 6 months. I could be short, but I think that is about right given Bitcoin's tendency to bounce in the direction its going to go fairly quickly.
The reason I put the price at a little less than a dollar (but not much less) is that i assume that if Bitcoin will be around at all, then it will become safer and more reliable thanks to consolidation of money among a few powerful exchanges. When people feel safe enough to keep large amounts of money in Bitcoins and even run businesses month in-month out without major problems, then the fundamental problem with Bitcoin will reveal itself: quick, clean conversion to cash. Lets be honest: Bitcoin exists for the purpose of circumventing a handful of laws. For a small fee, third parties will offer to buy bitcoins. The cost of running a consistent business with Bitcoin will be decided by this market for conversion, and it will not be free although it will be cheap.
The value of Bitcoin's anonymity would normally cause the Bitcoin to be worth more than a dollar, as it does currently, but consider this: customers are the ones buying INTO anonymity when they transfer cash into bitcoins. Vendors are the ones buying OUT when they need to convert in order to buy more inventory with cash. Which party is doing more transactions consistently and with larger volume? the vendors, of course. These are the guys whose cost of doing business will decide the price of bitcoins. Customers' concerns will not affect the price as much, as they are discrete units with limited funds, similar to the random guy who has an online brokerage account and whose individual trades have zero effect on stock prices. Vendors are collecting all the Bitcoins and consistently looking for ways to cash out, and unless they are buying inventory with Bitcoin on a regular basis then the scale will always tip in that direction. So, it follows that compared to any other business they could be in, the cost of doing business with Bitcoins will always be slightly more due to the need to hire a third party to consistently deliver cash. In an efficient market with reliable cash people, the fees will be low. So I think it's fair to price the Bitcoin at about a dollar but less exactly how much it costs to convert them to dollars. Maybe the balance will be tipped by the size of European transactions, but I think the best market for Bitcoin-related goods is here in the U.S.
So yeah, I'll go ahead and put my good name n the line and say that by the end of April 2012, expect for Bitcoins to be worth between 90 and 95 cents.