I've had time to think and I have a theory.
@Quasimoto listen up.
You can call this a "conspiracy" theory if you like. The difference would be that I'm not claiming it to be true. I
am saying that this is plausible. See if you can arrive in the same place before I make it obvious.
1. It's not hard at all to radicalize and influence a fringe individual. You can pretty much get a specific idea in their heads and even set them on the path to fairly specific plans. Government covert agencies definitely have the resources and tools to do such things.
2. The entire Republican party seems to have turned against the war in Ukraine. Whether Donald Trump or another Republican gets in does not matter. A Republican will likely end support for Ukraine.
3. This attempt has already blown Trump's debate debacle out of the news cycle. It will solidify his base hugely and garner some support from swing voters. It helps Trump as it played out. Had it been successful, any other Republican would fair better in the election.
4. So, this shooting, successful or not, will increase the likelihood of a Republican being elected and thus that the US will withdraw support from Ukraine.
Believe that covert Russian government agencies would plausibly engage in such nefarious activities or don't, I guess. If you believe they would, it's quite plausible. For both shootings