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  • Current Events & Politics Moderators: deficiT | tryptakid | Foreigner

2024 US Presidential Election

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It's too early to make this political. Thoughts and prayers.

My previous post about "soft targets" was the quote from JD Vance with "schools" replaced by "Mar-a-Lago and "children" replaced with "Donald Trump".

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This shooter not only seems to have been incompetent about the mechanics of the shooting, but also about the political impact. This will do nothing but help Trump at a time when many swing voters are seeing through him. Even had he succeeded, the Republican party would have thrown up a new and better Trump rather quickly rather than doing the soul searching they need to do.

And, it sure seems to be perfect timing.

*****

Just first impressions since I have no filter here. Having been given time to ponder, we need (as liberal, snowflake, bedwetters) to condemn any political violence of course. We might need to work in how it's never acceptable... even if you lose an election.
 
Shots (almost) fired at trump, world sips coffee.

Really gives you a sense of the temperature, donnit?

Play stupid games, Donnie... win stupid prizes. Glad no one was harmed. I hope this guy gets some mental health treatment because he seems like he needs it.

P.S.

Let's keep this discussion polite whenever possible. My view is that this failed attempt at assassinating the former reality television show guy playing golf comes from the utter lack of decorum that has become the norm across politics. Insults lead to hurt feelings, lead to misunderstandings, lead to contempt, lead to fear/anger/paranoia, lead to violence.

May not be a causal relationship, but we can all do our part to not muddy the already brackish water by being open and curious about one another's views, and noting when someone's views become concerning. Reading through this dude's x.com posts is a whole lot of red flags that should have precluded gun access and should have included human connection.

Hope y'all have a good start to your week <3
 
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I've had time to think and I have a theory. @Quasimoto listen up.
You can call this a "conspiracy" theory if you like. The difference would be that I'm not claiming it to be true. I am saying that this is plausible. See if you can arrive in the same place before I make it obvious.

1. It's not hard at all to radicalize and influence a fringe individual. You can pretty much get a specific idea in their heads and even set them on the path to fairly specific plans. Government covert agencies definitely have the resources and tools to do such things.

2. The entire Republican party seems to have turned against the war in Ukraine. Whether Donald Trump or another Republican gets in does not matter. A Republican will likely end support for Ukraine.

3. This attempt has already blown Trump's debate debacle out of the news cycle. It will solidify his base hugely and garner some support from swing voters. It helps Trump as it played out. Had it been successful, any other Republican would fair better in the election.

4. So, this shooting, successful or not, will increase the likelihood of a Republican being elected and thus that the US will withdraw support from Ukraine.


Believe that covert Russian government agencies would plausibly engage in such nefarious activities or don't, I guess. If you believe they would, it's quite plausible. For both shootings
 
That doesn't make much sense. They're not going to go to all that trouble, of recruiting a random yahoo etc, when Putin is already on favourable terms with Trump. They know the score with Trump, as opposed to another Republican candidate. Not to mention that if Trump were actually assassinated it would cause tremendous upheaval in America, not just politically either. Which is the last thing Russia would want.. when you're in a war time scenario you don't like unknown variables, and try to avoid introducing them where possible, because it makes strategizing more difficult than it needs to be.

I think you have it backwards. If anything it would be elements within the American establishment trying to pull this off. And even then, it could just be a genuinely disturbed individual operating on his own. There is a tremendous fervour in the anti-Trump camp, it doesn't seem surprising to me that one or two weaker minds would do something as stupid as this.
 
My read is this:

Too much internet

Too much political tension/hype

Not enough legitimate discourse

Not enough problem solving

Access to firearms

Poor mental health crisis prevention.

Politicians playing dumb games, and manipulating the unwell to their cause with guns as one of the carrots.... People who think you've got their back and then think you've betrayed them catch feelings. People terminally online, with access to guns, and limited human connection/mental health support turn those feelings into violence.
 
brokedownpalace10 said:
C'mon.
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What? America is in a proxy war with Russia via Ukraine. If America were suddenly plunged into a period of uncertainty and instability, that could render it more likely that pressure would increase towards prolonging the Ukraine situation owing to raised tensions in Washington (emergency situations don't facilitate cooler heads).

As it stands Trump has a solid chance of winning, which Russia would rather have than a Democrat victory that might see continued funding and Nato pressure.

That's no more ridiculous than the conspiracy theory that Russia potentially organised some random American yahoo to try a pot shot at Trump.
 
tryptakid said:
My read is this:

Too much internet

Too much political tension/hype

Not enough legitimate discourse

Not enough problem solving

Access to firearms

Poor mental health crisis prevention.

Politicians playing dumb games, and manipulating the unwell to their cause with guns as one of the carrots.... People who think you've got their back and then think you've betrayed them catch feelings. People terminally online, with access to guns, and limited human connection/mental health support turn those feelings into violence.
Click to expand...
Lethal, Jesus. Fully agree though.

and difficult to see any kind of ok outcome in the present paradigm
 
-=SS=- said:
What? America is in a proxy war with Russia via Ukraine. If America were suddenly plunged into a period of uncertainty and instability, that could render it more likely that pressure would increase towards prolonging the Ukraine situation owing to raised tensions in Washington (emergency situations don't facilitate cooler heads).

As it stands Trump has a solid chance of winning, which Russia would rather have than a Democrat victory that might see continued funding and Nato pressure.

That's no more ridiculous than the conspiracy theory that Russia potentially organised some random American yahoo to try a pot shot at Trump.
Click to expand...
It's well known that Russia has a disinformation campaign who's root purpose is to sow division in the US. Trump sows division as well, it's a set.

If you re-read my post you will see that I said that I wasn't claiming it to be true.but that it was plausible. I also said you could call it a conspiracy theory if you like. Have at it.

One of the most persuasive data point for the possibility is the proven track record of Russia sowing discord in the US. And, yes, Trump's part of that. Mueller said that he couldn't find enough evidence of actual conspiracy but that they were obviously cooperating.
 
brokedownpalace10 said:
It's well known that Russia has a disinformation campaign who's root purpose is to sow division in the US. Trump sows division as well, it's a set.
Click to expand...
Would you like to offer some proof for that statement? Not that I discount the possibility, or that the reverse is also true (or other countries also meddling in each others domestic affairs), but in light of the past few years where we had the false dossier produced by Steele and the American establishment.. well, I'm not inclined to just accept wholesale the notion that Russia can be blamed for everything as the media is apt to do right now.
 
-=SS=- said:
Would you like to offer some proof for that statement? Not that I discount the possibility, or that the reverse is also true (or other countries also meddling in each others domestic affairs), but in light of the past few years where we had the false dossier produced by Steele and the American establishment.. well, I'm not inclined to just accept wholesale the notion that Russia can be blamed for everything as the media is apt to do right now.
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Sheesh. The sowing of discord was well known back at the time of the Steele Dossier (only part of which was brought into question), it's never been argued, just connections to Trump were never well enough proven (although cooperation was).

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Mueller Report - Lottsa good stuff in here. Stuff about Trump "coordinating" but not enough proof of "conspiracy" ("collusion" is not a legal term) and more on Russia sowing discord.

Really. Just skim volume one. The actual report which I've linked. The Barr deception was the object of an investigation IIRC.

" The first form of Russian election influence came principally from the Internet Research Agency, LLC (IRA), a Russian organization funded by Yevgeniy Viktorovich Prigozhin and companies he controlled, including Concord Management and Consulting LLC and Concord Catering (collectively "Concord").2 The IRA conducted social media operations targeted at large U.S. audiences with the goal of sowing discord in the U.S. political system."

www.nbcnews.com

Read the text of the Mueller report

The Mueller report, with some redactions, was released on Thursday.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com

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More recently.

"The report illustrated that Russia poses the most active foreign influence threat to the elections as it encourages divisive rhetoric and influence election outcomes. In addition, the country allegedly uses US-sanctioned organisations and targeted online influence operations to stoke domestic divisions and push for preferred election outcomes."


www.defenceconnect.com.au

Russia, Iran to sow discord in upcoming US election while China looks at local level

Russia and Iran are leading a multi-pronged approach to sow discord and undermine confidence in the upcoming US presidential election, according to evaluations made by US government agencies.
www.defenceconnect.com.au www.defenceconnect.com.au

“The Russian government has long sought to sow discord and chaos in the United States through propaganda and foreign malign influence campaigns,”

www.justice.gov

Two RT Employees Indicted for Covertly Funding and Directing U.S. Company that Published Thousands of Videos in Furtherance of Russian Interests

An indictment charging Russian nationals Kostiantyn Kalashnikov, 31, also known as Kostya, and Elena Afanasyeva, 27, also known as Lena, with conspiracy to violate the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) and conspiracy to commit money laundering was unsealed today in the Southern District of...
www.justice.gov www.justice.gov

C'mon.
Most of this was a cursory Google search with a preference for looking into govt type websites taking just a little bit of time.
(yawn) I'm going back to sleep now, I was up late.
 
'Sowing discord' sounds utterly nebulous to my mind. It's like the demoralization stuff by Yuri Bezminov, that lays the majority of blame for cultural degradation at the hands of the KGB.

More to the point, it makes no difference in a two party political system. You're either voting red or blue, or not at all. So what difference does 'discord' make? And moreover, what difference does it make when the system itself is generating feelings of discord in the population by being so utterly shite and openly corrupt anyway? What need is there for any outside sowing of discord. Seems like a waste of time to me.

It's also a bit condescending to the Russians, and I think reveals through it's own arrogance that it is actually domestic propaganda. The American's (CIA) don't bother targeting the public of countries they wish to oppress, hoping to sway them to vote for 'their' guy. No, their methods are far more brutal and to the point, they don't fuck around with hoping to win hearts and minds. And we're led to believe the Russian's hope to infiltrate the American system by targeting voter intentions? Come on. It's like bad movie plot, I think the Russian's are a bit more sophisticated than that.
 
-=SS=- said:
'Sowing discord' sounds utterly nebulous to my mind. It's like the demoralization stuff by Yuri Bezminov, that lays the majority of blame for cultural degradation at the hands of the KGB.

More to the point, it makes no difference in a two party political system. You're either voting red or blue, or not at all. So what difference does 'discord' make? And moreover, what difference does it make when the system itself is generating feelings of discord in the population by being so utterly shite and openly corrupt anyway? What need is there for any outside sowing of discord. Seems like a waste of time to me.

It's also a bit condescending to the Russians, and I think reveals through it's own arrogance that it is actually domestic propaganda. The American's (CIA) don't bother targeting the public of countries they wish to oppress, hoping to sway them to vote for 'their' guy. No, their methods are far more brutal and to the point, they don't fuck around with hoping to win hearts and minds. And we're led to believe the Russian's hope to infiltrate the American system by targeting voter intentions? Come on. It's like bad movie plot, I think the Russian's are a bit more sophisticated than that.
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