2016-2017 NCAA Basketball thread v. QUACK... QUACK...

[China Rider]

Georgia is the best fucking 15-12 team I have seen in my entire life.

i watched the 2nd half of that uk/uga game and you're right, i knew they were solid but they kept bringing up the games they got gophed in(it's what i call blowing games you should win) and they are very solid(hopefully they're young i like to see football schools in SEC play good hoops)

great guards go a long way and fraser looked as good as any BT PG and there's 3 really good ones in melo trimble(md), nate mason(gophs) and derek walton jr(mich)

also a scott drew baylor team are usually choke jokes in NCAAs

and re:WVU
i love them, when i went to morgantown(to see music only) back when i was in college back in like '08, getting lost in WV was a weird/awesome experience

i still remember pittsnogle and beilen's kid taking WVU to at least elite 8 back in like '04? and it was awesome

 

[mal3volent]

Can I just add... What the hell is nc state thinking firing their coach? That guys in maybe the toughest conference in the country. He took his team to the tournament 4/5 years hes been there. They made it to the sweet sixteen in 2/4 of those trips. They lost their best players. You fire the guy? You don't even wait til after the ACC tournament? Really?

 

[China Rider]

^coaching changes are not always over Ws and Ls, there could be shit behind the scenes...athletic directors can be a real pain in the ass, asking coaches to spend too much of their time fund raising and doing other bullshit, can drive a coach mad

in the 16+ years i've been following this team the gophs, one consistent was always blowing leads....they do still it, but win 'em

richard pitino has officially changed the culture tonight after beating michigan in OT(their 5th OT game in conference, 3-2)
pending a bad ending to NW's season, pitino will probably be robbed for conf coach of the year....despite beating NW in their own gym

gophers reach 20 wins quicker than any MN team since the '97 final four team

it's about 99% official, this team is going to NCAAs for the first time since '13 and first time under pitino, who is about to make a shit load of money....they won 8 games last year, this turn around is fucking historic and the future looks significantly better than what they've accomplished this year

 

[mal3volent]

congrats man

 

[China Rider]

congrats man

thanks bud

i'm glad we were able to patch things up we started this thread on an ugly road

gophers @ maryland tonight, a win and i'm convinced they can make a run to the final four

gophs would have won their first meeting(their last loss was vs MD, capped up a 5 game losing streak) but MD had two freshman drain 5 3s a piece

they've proven they can win on the road (@purdue(they have 1 loss @Mackey arena and avg margin of victory is like 20), @NW, and @ILL(RPI is up to 56)

the younger players on minnesota are getting better every game, freshman eric curry is becoming one of my favorite players, doing all the small things and clearly has potential to be a 6'9 F that can shoot and can live in the paint....his mom is my favorite twitter follower, we always talk gopher hoops

 

[China Rider]

gophers @ maryland tonight, a win and i'm convinced they can make a run to the final four

89-75 final

NSFW:

GOPHERS WIN RICHARD PITINO FOR NATIONAL COACH OF THE YEAR!

 

[China Rider]

on 2/23, a day before my birthday, the gophers have the best RPI in the big ten, the win @maryland took them from 23--->16, purdue is 17, Maryland 21, Wisconsin 23...they weren't in the top 16 by the committee because of lack of quality wins, which if that's what they're looking for that gophers should bode very well come selection sunday

right now i'm trying to find a team with better RPI top 60 road wins than minnesota
@purdue
@northwestern
@maryland
@illinois (RPI 58 but has a favorable 4 games to end season and might sneak into NCAAs)
vs vandy (neutral)

they really don't have any big home wins(nor do they have a chance to get one, last two are vs PSU/Nebraska they blew it in OT vs wisconsin and MSU....3 best home wins are arkansas, UT arlington(RPI 35) and Michigan

they lost to MSU twice, if MSU doesn't have those wins they would be on the thin line of the bubble, instead as of now the consensus is about a 10 seed

if gophers can win out with a finale road W at wisconsin than they're looking at a 4 seed at worst...watch they'll win out, win B1G tourney and run out of gas and lose to a 14 seed in the first round

if they can make the sweet 16 to me that's practically winning the championship, they were predicted to finish 13th in the big ten, if they win the final 3 games they will have tripled their win total from a year ago.... i remember a favorite team of mine went from worst to first...'99 rams baby

gophers have had huge years with years ending in a 7, 1977(24-3, but ineligible for NCAA tourney due to academic BS) 1997 reached final four(but season is wiped clean, you guessed it, academic scandal) and 2017(17 is the number i wore in HS baseball) they will be a single seed in NCAAs since being a 9 in '05

since i've been an intense fan i've only watched them lose in NCAAs('05 vs Iowa st is 8/9, '09 vs texas in 7/10 and '10 vs xavier in 7/10)...can't count '97, i was aware they were final 4 but i really didn't watch, i was 10...also can't count '99 where the '97 academic scandal kicked in and 4 players were suspended and they lost to gonzaga, the year gonzaga went to sweet 16 or elite 8...the next year thier coach dan monson would be named gopher HC, enter mark few)

they have only one won NCAA game back in '13 they beat shabazz mohammad's ucla by 20 before losing to florida...tubby smith was fired(UCLA's ben howland also fired), sounded crazy but that team was a huge underachiever and there were some player's on that team that were shit, tubby caught lightning in a bottle when he won it with UK....this year's team isn't deep, they only play 8 guys, and the 8th only plays 5-8 minutes and is strictly defense...he was a starter last year lol...but the 6th and 7th man are very good young players, their 6th man dupree mcbrayer was on fire vs maryland and led team with 18 points

SHIM were you at man? i want you to tell me that big ten sucks and none of gophers wins matter and that they'll be lucky to get past first round

and M3, i'm looking at kentucky's resume and sorry bro, i know it's not a competition but it pales in comparison to the gophers...only quality win on the road is @vandy? and only really strong victory is vs UNC. when i was watching UK/UGA they were saying UK has a hard time with pick and roll offenses, well guess what bud that's exactly Gophs offense...i'd love to see ya'll in the second round in either the 3/6 or 5/4 game

btw the best place for bracketolgy is www.bracketmatrix.com, it uses projections from over 100 sources
of those 100 sources my favorite blog is https://dailybracket.wordpress.com/ because it's updated daily and as of 2/23 they have gophers in as a 4 seed...and after doing research they totally deserve it, their resume is top 10 IMO...if the tournament started today gophers would def be a 3 or a 4 seed, i swear i'm not being biased...biased is the awful coaches and AP poll who actually thinks wichita state, whose best win is vs illinois state, is a better team than minnesota

 

[subotai]

China Rider, Bob Huggins took West Virginia to the Final Four?

It was my senior year of high school, I remember that like it was yesterday. Butler fucked my whole bracket up

Minnesota will get in fo sho.

Congratulations, seriously.

Dillon Brooks with another dagger over Cal. I like how Oregon came back in that game when they could have easily mailed it in

FTR:

Kansas road wins that are kind of a big dill.

@ Iowa St
@ Kentucky
@ Kansas St
@ Baylor
They beat Duke on a neutral court if I wanted to be a dick about it

nbdjs

My new favorite future 76er: Jonathan Isaac

FSU to the Elite 8

SAY SOMETHIN

 

[subotai]

Scott Drew Baylor teams are a joke in the tournament?

is this real life?

Or are you so narrowly focusing on your team beating Maryland on the road (sweet dude btw), that you've forgotten the past 10 years or so?

Elite 8 in 2010 and 2012
Sweet sixteen in 2014

They are a legit team this year.

 

[subotai]

I'd say I know how it feels to see my team scrape out an at-large bid but both of them have been in the tournament comfortably since Christmas

The last time Kansas didn't win the Big 12 I was playing World of Warcraft on a 56k modem. Actually no, WoW didn't even come out yet.

Big 10 produces shitty NBA players by and large

now I'm starting to remember why I shoot you down, you have so many hot takes that are just horribly false

 

[mal3volent]

China rider, you can cherry pick stats to back up just about any argument. I could say UK beat MSU by 20 and Minnesota lost to them by 20, therefore UK is better than Minnesota. I could say that every year UK gets judged on the same scale that most teams have three or four years to work up to. Or you could take out one outlier for each team then look at the average point differential. A couple of years ago, UK was undefeated for 38 games in a row, then all of a sudden they weren't. It was one game at one point in time. Similar thing happened to the Carolina Panthers in the 15-16 season. Stats make sense until they don't. Everybody's got a plan until they get punched in the face...or however the saying goes.

It's all about who gets matched up with who. Who gets seeded where. Which team plays harder.

 

[China Rider]

Minnesota will get in fo sho.

Congratulations, seriously.



FSU to the Elite 8

SAY SOMETHIN

thanks, jeans but i don't need assurance that they're going to get in. they have officially qualified with worst case scenario being a 10 seed, i would say safest bet is they get a 6 seed

once ya get into the 5 seed they're all pretty much the same. if they can end season 2-1(11-7 conf record 23-8 overall) and win two games in big ten tournament they will be a 5, maybe 4 seed. if they win out it will cap off a 12 game win streak, earning them a 2 seed

about a month ago i told a bud that i think FSU is going to win it all, since then i'm in your boat and think elite 8 sounds about right. not sure how their back court is but know they have some horses in the front court. they would make a great match up vs purdue in the sweet 16

ohio state is about to head to locker room with a double digit lead over wisconsin, these guys from ESPN are very disinterested, they're not even calling the game

i love seeing bucky struggle down the stretch and would love nothing more than for gophs to end season with a win at kohl center and bumping wisconsin out of the top 4 in conf(top 4 teams get automatic bye into quarter finals of B1G tourney)

 

[China Rider]

does every pac 12 game feature an absence of defense, passion and fundamentals or is it just sun devils and bruins?

it's like watching poor high school players trying to play NBA style

did the GS warriors ruin west coast youth basketball?

thank god for bill walton to save these obscene pac 12 minis

 

[subotai]

Florida St has a really tall and athletic team and they are hard to score on. When their two best players in Dwayne Bacon and Jonathan Isaac hit 3 pointers there's few teams who can beat them.

they don't put up a lot of individual stats though, everyone contributes here and there.

I'd rather have Markelle Fultz or Malik Monk than Isaac although I think Isaac has the most potential. I just don't know if he'd really find any minutes on the sixers whereas Fultz could come in right away and get a lot of minutes.

Oregon is actually pretty good at defense, but most of the Pac 12 is lacking in that department.

I'd be pretty bummed if Villanova repeated as champions. Not sure when the last time a team won back to back titles. I'd have to guess Duke when Christian Laettner played there maybe?

Oh yeah I forgot about those Florida teams. Such a random squad

I started really following college basketball right after that year.

 

[China Rider]

i've been obsessed with looking at tournament resumes...when you're team plays well the entire league sucks you in

so i'm going to start posting a somewhat daily at large projections...you guys should too, all ya need is the RPI in front of your face and you can go nuts checking out each teams resume http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi

it's a lot of fun...make sure you have 36 at large bids, should end up with 14 conf winners in teams occupying 1-12seeds
i would say picks are based on 65% current position, 20% predicted finishes an 15% heart

1:Gonzaga, UNC, Kansas, Villanova
2: Duke, Butler, Baylor, Oregon
3:Kentucky, FSU, Louisville, Florida
4:UCLA, Arizona, Purdue, Minnesota
5:Notre Dame, Virginia, Cincy, Maryland
6: Creighton, Wisconsin, WVU, SMU
7:Virginia Tech. Xavier, Oklahoma State,St Mary
8:Miami, Iowa State, Dayton, South Carolina
9:Michigan State, Michigan, VCU, Arkansas
10: Kansas State, Seton Hall, Northwestern,UT Arlington
11:, Providence, Marquette, Vanderbilt^, Wichita State USC^
12,Syracuse#, Cal#, Nevada,Middle Tennessee State UNC-Wilmington
,
^,#Opens tournament with play in game
bold teams are projected conference champs (14 in total seeded at 12 seed at better, 36 at large teams in regular font)

Next 4 out/remaining schedule: Cal(Ore St, @Utah, @Colo), Syracuse(@Lou, GT), USC (@ASU, UW, WSU), Vandy (Miss st, @ KU, Fla)
First 4 out: Georgia, Tennessee, Wake Forest, Illinois St
Next 4 out Ohio State, Illinois, Pitt, Georgia Tech

sorry but USC and Cal's resumes are not good but will have enough top 100 wins to get in

 

[subotai]

USC has a win over UCLA at home

thats pretty much it. Loathsome team, shouldn't get in, probably still will.

they load up on shitty teams early in the year to finish with like 24 wins a year and lose to everyone better
than them.

I think Syracuse will get in if they win @Lousiville. That almost is their play-in game

and you know there is going to be some random ass conference champion who crashes the party like Marquette winning the Big East or something. Doesn't really affect the top teams really but that could bounce someone like USC out of the tournament

oh you have Marquette as an 11 seed.

Ok someone like Memphis winning the American then

I think Houston could win the American too. One of their players, Damyean Dotson, got kicked off of Oregon like 2 years ago for allegedly raping a girl with two other players (one being Dominic Artis of UTEP) and it never even got brought to court.

yeah they had a lot of evidence though...

if Houston or UTEP gets in I'd feel vindicated.

UTEP is 10-5 against C-USA and 12-15 overall. How does that even happen? Might be because their best scorer in Omega Harris has only played in the past 16 games.

watch UTEP win conference usa

I thought BPI was a more relevant measuring stick for a team because a lot of teams will manipulate their schedule to bump their RPI up

 

[China Rider]

USC has a win over UCLA at home

thats pretty much it. Loathsome team, shouldn't get in, probably still will.

they load up on shitty teams early in the year to finish with like 24 wins a year and lose to everyone better
than them.

I think Syracuse will get in if they win @Lousiville. That almost is their play-in game

and you know there is going to be some random ass conference champion who crashes the party like Marquette winning the Big East or something. Doesn't really affect the top teams really but that could bounce someone like USC out of the tournament

oh you have Marquette as an 11 seed.

Ok someone like Memphis winning the American then

reasons i'm hoping chump teams dont fuck it up:
i'd love to see big ten get an 8th team in the tourney, illinois has best chance, last 3 games are winnable, they're playing well and would end 9-9 in conf with quality wins in NW(X2)...this would be only road win, VCU at neutral court, and vs MSU plus they don't have any losses outside RPI 100, they win 2 in BTT and finish 20-13 and they're in...which could potentially be minnesota's 5th road win vs NCAA at large bid

also would like to see another SEC school get in, whether it be UGA, Tenn or Vandy

but i really don't want to see a team with only 6/7 conf wins in the NCAA...looking at pitt, clemson and GT
syrcacuse has a 74 RPI and i don't quite get it, sure their only road wins are vs NC state and clemson, but wins vs duke, FSU, miami, wake, virginia and pitt is a pretty solid resume...losing by 30 to RPI +100 st johns doesn't help, nor does losing by 15 to RPI 215 BC

my cuse fan of a brother insists that the committee isn't going to stress on RPI has they have in the past and care more about big wins more than anything, which they do, and is also a major factor in the RPI formula

i'm totally considering going to big ten tourney final if minnesota makes it, DC is only about a 4 hour drive and i have childhood friend who's also a gopher fan(because i was a fucking trend setter :D) who only live an hour outside DC. but he's married and doesn;t seem up to it, i just might have to roll solo and just meet gophfriends at the game....if minnesota makes finals tickets will be much cheaper on the streets just as long as they don't draw MD

i think wichita state needs to win MVC to get in, the conf is garbage this year, their best win is vs MVC brothers in too high of RPI Illinois state

gophers play at PSU tomorrow, a team with three really good philly area freshman, and a team that stole a 52-50 game from gophs earlier this year at brice jordan center..despite leading enitre fucking game until the 9 second mark, god damn, oh well this is a whole new team, the 7 significant players have all gone through hoopatitis A B & C during some period of season and all now test negative

 

[China Rider]

U

I thought BPI was a more relevant measuring stick for a team because a lot of teams will manipulate their schedule to bump their RPI up

that could very well be true

i wouldn't know because when gophs were last relevant i don''t think it was even a measuring stick and i subscribe to a little something called confirmation bias it's why im always harping over RPI, it makes gophs look the best....if they win vs PSU they fucking better end up in both polls, they'll be coming off a 7 game win streak and will be somewhere around 13-17 in RPI....22-7(10-6 conf)

i only care because i think if add a number in front of them it will give them a solid chance to sell out arena for senior day vs nebraska (a fiesty group but i think HC tim miles is on estrogen)

when roy williams or coach K hang it up i have a feeling little pitino will be getting the offer, but something tells me he wants to be like bo ryan and build his own legacy and become a campus legend that they name the court after, plus don't think he would want to coach vs pops twice a year....or vice versa, when SR comes to games gophs winning % is like 90% and he acts like a 14 year old in the crowds, it's pretty cool

 

[subotai]

I put more stock into wins that teams have over any bad losses they might have.

I want to see that they are capable of beating teams that are better than them, not that they beat who they are supposed to beat and lose to who they are supposed to

I'd put a 17 win team with 5 top 25 wins over a 24 win team with 1 or 2, but that's just me

 

[China Rider]

I'd put a 17 win team with 5 top 25 wins over a 24 win team with 1 or 2, but that's just me

yeah that's why syacuse gets in, their RPI blows but they have way too many quality wins to be left out

i feel asleep 5 mins before gophs beat PSU and woke up 10 minutes after it was over, oh well they kicked ass(i stayed up to watch the early AM replay), the big ten network can't stop blowing them, fans that were around during '97 final four run think this year is even more fun due to the turn around/youth

if gophs beat nebraska and @wisconsin and purdue loses their last two games(vs IU and @NW) will give gophs the regular season BT title

here's my updated bracket projections(complete with remaining schedule/results from previous game) with bubble team assessments

enjoy and talk some shit

NSFW:

1:Gonzaga, UNC, Kansas, Villanova

2: FSU (@Clem(W),@Duke, Mia)
Butler (@Xavier(W), Seton Hall)
Baylor (@ISU(L),WVU, @Tex)
UCLA (@AZ(W),Wash, WSU)

3:Oregon (@Stan (W), @Ore St)
Kentucky (FLA(W)Vandy, @TEXAM)
Louisville (Cuse(W),@Wake, ND)
Duke (@Mia(L),FSU,@UNC)

4:Florida (@UK(L), Ark, @Vandy)
Arizona (UCLA(L),@ASU)
Purdue (Mich(L),IU,@NW)
Minnesota (PSU(W) Neb, @Wisc)

5:Notre Dame (GT(W),BC, @Lou)
Virginia (@NCST(W),UNC,Pitt)
WVU (@TCU(W),@Baylor, ISU)
Creighton(@Nova(L),St.Johns, @Marq)

6: Miami (Duke(W),@VT, @FSU)
Wisconsin(@OSU(L),Iowa, Minn)
SMU (@UCONN(W),Tulsa, Memp)
Maryland (Iowa(L),@Rut, MSU)

7:Cincy (@UCF(L),Hou, @UCONN
Iowa State (Baylor(W), Ok St,@WVU),
St Mary's (Reg Season Complete)
Michigan (Pur(W),@NW, @Neb)

8:Oklahoma State (Tex tech(W),@ISU, KU)
Michigan State (Wisc(W)@Ill, @MD)
Virginia Tech (@BC (W), Miami, Wake)
Arkansas (@Aub(W),@Fla, UGA)

9avier (Butler(L), Marq, @Depaul)
Dayton (@Davidson(W),VCU, @GW)
Providence (Marq(W),DePaul, @St.Johns)
South Carolina (Ten(W), Mis St, @MS)

10: UT Arlington
VCU (@RI(L),@Day, Geo Mas)
Seton Hall (DePaul (W),George, @Butler)
Northwestern (@IU(L), Mich, Pur)

11: Wichita State
USC (ASU(L),WSU,Wash)
California (Ore St(W),@Utah, @Colo St)
Vanderbilt (Miss St(W),@UK,Fla),
Syracuse (@Lou(L),GT)

12,Marquette (@Prov(L), @Xav, Creighton
Kansas State^ (OU(L),@TCU, Tex Tech)
Nevada (UNLV(W),San Jose, @Colo St)
Middle Tennessee State (UAB(W), Fla Intl, Fla Atlantic)
UNC-Wilmington (Season Complete)
Illinois^(NEB (W) MSU, @Rut)


Last 4 in: USC, Kansas State,Illinois, Cal

USC: 21-8(8-8 Pac12)
ScheduleASU(L),WSU,Wash
Q wins: SMU, UCLA
Worst Losses: @Arizona State, @Utah
How to stay in: To finish with an impressive above .500 Pac 12 record they must avoid a home loss vs Wazzou or Washington. Despite their 21-8 record and 38 RPI the Trojans lack a signature road win and only have 5 wins vs RPI top 100(UCLA, SMU, @Tex AM, BYU(neutral court) and Stanford. Finish the regular season strong and with a victory ovefr Arizona, UCLA or Oregon in Pac12 tournament and I give USC an 85% chance to earn at large bid. With just a single win in Pac12 tournament w/o big win I give them a 50% chance for an at large bid.

Kansas State 17-12 (6-10 Big12)
RPI 67
Schedule: OU(L),@TCU, Tex Tech
Q WinsOkla State, WVU, @Baylor
Worst losses: Oklahoma, @Texas Tech
How to stay in: Latest loss to conference bottom dweller Oklahoma might be ultimately prevent Wildcat's from gaining birth to NCAA. I think if KSU can take care of TCU/TT to end season and avoid immediate exit in Big12 Tournament I give them an about 50% chance to get in.

Illinois 16-12(7-9 Big 10)
RPI 57
Schedule: @Neb(W), Michigan State, @Rutgers
Q Wins: @Northwestern, VCU, Michigan, Northwestern
Worst Losses: Winthrop, PSU, @PSU, @Indiana
How to stay in: The Wintrhop loss is not as bad as it looks. The Eagles are 23-6 and have earned the #1 seed in Big South Tournament over consensus favorite UNC-Wilmington. The Illini's easiest route to NCAA tournament is to win final two games of the season and win at least one game in Big 10 Tournament. I think if Illinois can get to 20 over all wins they are a sure thing. 19 wins will likely keep them outside looking in.

California 19-9 (10-6 Pac12)
RPI 51
Schedule: Ore St(W),@Utah, @Colo St
Q WinsUSC, Princeton (Neutral Court) Stanford, Utah
Worst Losses: San Diego St(Neutral Court), @Stanford, Seton Hall(Neutral Court)
How to stay in: Cal has a solid record, strong in confererence record, at least one top 50 RPI road win. But this team played a very boring scedule outside of the Pac12 elites. The played Oregon and Arizona down to the wire in Berkeley and have no home losses outside the top 50 RPI. Going into final two games they are 4-8 vs RPI top 100. I think California is a talented team but outside of hosting UVA and playing bubble team Seton Hall at a neutral court, have been shafted by their Athletic Department scheduling a very obsolete out of conference schedule. If California doesn't want a let down on selection Sunday they need at least 22 total wins on the year. Which is too bad because I think California has talent of a top 40 team

Potential at large bid stealing Mid Majors/most threatening team:

Illinois State or Wichita State
UT-Arlington (Arkansas State)
Middle Tennessee State (Louisiana Tech)

Outside looking in:

NSFW:

Georgia Tech 15-13 (7-9 ACC)
RPI: 96
Q Wins: @VCU, UNC, FSU,Notre Dame, Syracuse
Worst losses: Ohio, NC State, @PSU
Schedule: @ND (L), Pitt, @Cuse
What they need: Their RPI is alarmingly high despite 4 very quality wins including a signature road win. They havn't exactly lost to anybody bad outside of Ohio(17-9 107 RPI) I think they need to win @Cuse, a team firmly on the bubble and avoid a first game exit in the ACC tournament and they'll receive an at large bid.

Ohio State 16-13 (6-10 Big Ten)
RPI 73
Q Wins: Minnesota, @Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Providence
Worst Losses:FLA Atlantic, @Iowa, Nebraska
Schedule: @PSU, Indiana
What they need: Winning final two games is a must, it will likely earn them a bye in Big Ten Tournament, where they would need 2 wins for consideration


Georgia 16-12 (8-8 SEC)
RPI: 56
Q Wins: Vandy, @Georgia Tech, @ Miss @Tenn @Aud
Worst losses: @Oakland, Vs Alabama @Tex AM
Schedule:LSU (W),Auburn, @Ark
What they need: Win final 2 games(@Ark would be huge bump to their resume that's heavily relying on road wins vs RPI 50-100)and win 2 SEC conference tournament wins will put them in position to get in or be one of final 2 teams left out

Wake Forest 16-12 (7-9 ACC)
RPI: 47
Q Wins: Miami, @Charleston, Pitt
Worst Loses: Clemson, @Clemson, @Syracuse
Schedule: Pitt(W),Louis, @VT
What they need: If they can get two badly needed signature wins to end vs Louisville and @VA Tech I believe they are in

Illinois St 24-5
RPI:33
Q Wins: Wichita State, New Mexico, Tulsa
Worst LossesMurray St, @Tulsa,San Francisco
What they need: I believe they need to win MVC Tourney, but due to current RPI of 33 I wouldn't be surprised if they receive at large bid w/loss to Wichita State in MVC championship. I wouldn't be shocked to see both Wichita State and Illinois State reach the dance. But it were up to me it would be one of the other. Both teams have lots of wins but were hardly challenged.

Pitt 15-14 (4-12 ACC)
RPI: 63
Q WinsMaryland, UVA, FSU
Worst Losses:Duquesne, @NC ST, Clemson
Schedule: @UNC(L)@GT, @UVA
What they need: A win at UVA and 3 wins between @GT and ACC tournament

Clemson 14-14 (4-12 ACC)
RPI: 66
Q WinsSouth Carolina, UNC Wilmington, @ Wake, Wake, @Pitt, Georgia
Worst Losses: Oklaholma(Neutral court), @ Georgia Tech, Syracuse
Schedule: FSU(L), NC State, Boston College
What they need: Of all bubble teams they have the strongest worst losses. Still believe must win final 2 games vs ACC bottom feeders and win 2 in ACC tournament
Tennessee(@south car(L)
Ole Miss(@Mizzou(W), @Alabama, South Car)

Rhode Island 19-9 (11-5 Atlantic 10)
RPI:44
Q Wins: Cincinnati(Neutral Court). Xavier, Belmont
Worst Losses:Fordham, La Salle, @Richmond
Schedule: VCU(W), @St. Joes, Davidson
What they need: I think their 0-4 road record vs RPI 50-100 will come back to haunt them. They need to win out regular season and secure a #3/#4 seed in A10 tournament and beat VCU or Dayton in the Atlantic 10 tournament semi-finals for a chance at an at large bid.

TCU 16-12 (6-10 Big 12)
RPI:60
Q Wins:Illinois State, Iowa State, @ Kansas State
Worst Losses: @ Texas Tech, Auburn
Schedule: WVU(L), Kansas State, @Oklahoma
What they need: They need to take care of business to end season vs another Big 12 bubble team and avoid losing to Oklahoma to end season with a very impressive worst losses resume. I don't think a let down vs KSU is enough to be kiss of death. If they can avoid a loss vs Oklahoma and win two games in conference tournament highlighted by a win versus Baylor, Kansas or WVU to add a legit signature win to their resume I think they get an at large bid.

Mississippi: 18-11 (9-7 SEC)
RPI:70
Q Wins: @Vanderbilt, Tennesee, @ Auburn
Worst Losses: Texas A&M
Schedule: Mizzou(W), @ Alabama, South Carolina
What they need: They end season vs two top 100 RPI squads including a South Carolina team who has all but locked a bid. If Mississippi can finish the regular season 20-11(11-7 SEC) and pick up a pair of Ws in the SEC tournament it wouldn't be too hard to see them to steal bids away from conference foes Vanderbilt and Georgia. The absence of a true disaster loss accompanied with wins @Vandy, South Carolina and an RPI top 60 win in SEC tournament would give them a 75% chance at an at large bid despite not having any RPI top 35 wins.

Tennessee: 14-14 (7-9 SEC)
RPI: 68
Q Wins Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Kansas St, @East Tennessee St, Mississippi, Georgia Tech
Worst Losses:Chattanooga, @ Miss St
Schedule: @South Carolina(L) @LSU, Alabama
What they need: Their resume is an RPI top 25 win from being very good. Winning their final two games vs teams teams outside the RPI top 85 is a must. Just having these teams scheduled to end season brings down Vols a notch. I think Vols need to find a way to get to reach the SEC championship game if they want any chance to play in the NCAA tournament.

NOT GONNA MAKE IT

NSFW:

Utah - 1 win vs RPI top 100 as of 2/27, can end season with 3 wins in RPI top 100 if they win home games vs Cal and Stanford. Even with 20 regular season wins, a home win vs USC is wiped out by loss at RPI 290 Oregon State, 20 mostly below average wins is not enough to pass out any teams listed
above.
Georgetown
Bottom half of SEC teams: Texas AM, Alabama, and Auburn can only earn an automatic bid.
Houston
Indiana
BYU
Boise State