Saturday 23rd February
Fulham v Stoke 12:45
PREVIEW
Fulham continue to very gradually edge away from the relegation zone, now 6 points clear of the drop zone and they should just about be ok. 9 points from the last 8 games – not spectacular, but it will be enough if it continues from the 12 remaining games. Not nearly as strong at home as previous seasons, recently beating West Ham (3-1), drawing with Southampton (1-1) and Wigan (1-1) and losing to Swansea (1-2) and Man Utd (0-1) last time at home. They got a point in a forgettable game at Norwich (0-0) last time out so it looks like they will simply determined not to lose any game and that will be their starting point – entertainment very much 2nd.
Stoke look comfortable in mid table for another season just a few more points to confirm yet another EPL season, they beat Reading (2-1) at home last time out but away it’s all been a bit grim recently and nothing at all away since a point at Spurs (0-0) on 22/12/12. Since then consecutive away defats at Man City (3-0), Swansea (3-1) and Arsenal (1-0) last time away. The away defeat at Arsenal was a considerable improvement upon the Man City and Swansea trips and also their home demolition by Chelsea (0-4), so maybe they are now over that nasty little run of conceding lots of goals and looking devoid of their usual spirit.
Stoke won at Fulham (0-1) three season ago but since have lost 2-0 and 2-1 last season
GA VERDICT
Probably not the greatest of choices to announce the return of the EPL with this lunch time kick off. Just 1 away win for Stoke this season at West Brom on December 1st – saying that Fulham’s home record is nothing to rave about W5 D3 L5 – and just 1 win in their last 5 home games. Their only wins this season have come against 14th Norwich, 9th placed West Brom, 16th placed Newcastle, 17th placed Villa and 11th placed West Ham – so Stoke are definitely the type of team they’ll fancy their chances against.
2 stats that completely oppose each other has to be when Fulham score at home and Stoke concede away, below is a breakdown in which halves Stoke have conceded their away goals in;
0/1, 0/3, 1/2, 0/0, 0/0, 0/0, 0/1, 1/0, 2/2, 0/0, 0/1, 1/1, 0/1
Fulham do tend to have goals in them scoring in 11/13 home games but clean sheets in just 23% of their home games has hampered their home points tally. Clean sheets in just 15% of their games (4/26) this season and would you trust this Fulham side to keep a clean sheet when they have failed in their last 13 consecutive games – but this is Stoke a side that has scored in just 1 of their last 5 away games and just 46% of their away games this season.
Can’t see too many goals, 2 teams whose first concern will be not losing rather than winning the game. Fulham have only scored 2+ goals in 2 of their last 11 home games. 9/13 of Stokes away games have seen under 2.5 goals with Stoke not scoring 2+ goal away in 8 away games and only in 2/13 away games this season. That leads me to getting involved with the 19/2 available at Bet Victor for no goal scorer – a decent price but a market I’d never back.
Under 2.5 goals 3/4
Both teams to score ‘no’ 5/6
For those of you wanting the result market I can see either 1/2nil Fulham or a draw (21/10)
West Brom v Sunderland 15:00
PREVIEW
West Brom withstood 80 mins of pressure to somehow come away with the points at Liverpool (0-2) last time out but the fact remains that after a good start to the season they now have little to play for on 37 points in 9th place. Recently at home a draw with Villa (2-2) and defeats to both Fulham (1-2) and Spurs (0-1) last time at home. In fact they have lost 8 of the last 13 only taking 11 points in that period. Having said that Sunderland don’t like this fixture at all going down 3-0, 1-0 and 4-0 last season and in addition West Brom triumphed ta the Stadium of light 2-4 earlier in the season.
Sunderland should by ok on 29 points but they have lost the last 2 at Reading (2-1) and at home to Arsenal (0-1) last time out. Prior to the away Reading defeat wins at Southampton (0-1) and Wigan (2-3) and a defeat at Liverpool (3-0), so it tends to be 1 thing or the other away from home.
GA VERDICT
Who knows what to expect from the Hawthorns this Saturday as both at times can appear either world beaters or completely useless. The last few games between the sides would suggest that there are goals here – it always helps when teams are safe from relegation and can play with less weight and pressure on their shoulders.
I’m not sure why but this fixture seems to produce goals, 23 in the last 6 meetings, with West Brom scoring 2+ past Sunderland in 5 of these. Sometimes you just have those fixtures when you believe you can beat a certain team.
Sunderland have scored just 14 goals in 13 away games – surprisingly scoring in 9 of their 13 away games. 8/13 teams they have faced have scored 2+ goals past them on their travels. They have only kept the home side out in just 23% of their away games. West Brom are a funny team, just 1 win in their last 7 games (against all the odds and expectations at Anfield) and just 3 wins from their last 13 games. Since their bad form hit they have collected just 11 points from a possible 33 – relegation form which equates to 0.84 points per game from their last 11 games. They have scored 2+ goals in 7 home games.
Goal scored in both halves 5/6 – Ladbrokes – this has already landed in 8/13 of the Baggies home games while in 9/13 of Sunderland’s away games
West Brom +1.5 goals 23/20
I will be going in-play on +2.5 goals – pre price is generous at +2.5 goals – the bookies are expecting many goals here.
QPR v Man Utd 15:00
PREVIEW
QPR are surely down now, their decent little run of 5 games unbeaten producing 7 points coming crashing to an end at Swansea (4-1) last time out. What they really needed now was a nice home team against a mid-table side with nothing to play for, but not a ruthless Utd side. Last 3 at home, Spurs (0-0), Man City (0-0) and Norwich (0-0). Draws are no longer enough as they currently have 17 points and they need 20 points from their remaining 12 games which is simply not going to happen.
Man Utd have been active in the cup competitions recently beating Reading (2-1) in the FA Cup on Monday and getting a superb draw at Madrid (1-1) in the CL last week. In the EPL they are unbeaten since mid-November and have taken 38/42 points since then, just dropping away points at Swansea (1-1) and Spurs (1-1). Recently away they beat Wigan (0-4) and drew at Spurs (1-1) and then last time away won at Fulham (0-1). Only 3 goals conceded in their last 7 EPL games and it is this aspect of their game that has changed dramatically since earlier in the season.
A comfortable 0-2 win for Utd last season and equally comfortable home wins 2-0 and 3-1 in the last 2 seasons.
GA VERDICT
It’s come to a point in the season where Harry must stick or twist – I think QPR will need another 20-22 points to confirm a another miserable year for their fans in the EPL, which means picking up an average of 1.69 points per their remaining games. To put that into perspective they have taken so far this season an average of 0.65 points per game and under Redknapp this is a little higher at 1 point per game. The problem is Harry’s team, whilst they have mastered the art of defending at home this has come at the cost of forgetting where the other end of the goal is. 4 consecutive home games without a QPR goal the last time was 26-12-12 (6 all season)!! On the plus side they have kept clean sheets to Man City, Spurs and Norwich in their last 3 home games.
Man Utd are too short to bet on in my eyes 1/2. This is a QPR side that has stifled Chelsea, Man City and Spurs at Loftus Rd. I can’t see Redknapp changing his philosophy here and he will want to keep it tight for as long as possible as QPR know they won’t be able to cope if Utd a) score 1st and b) if Utd score early on – QPR won’t have another game plan.
The key for QPR is when if when the concede 1st goal. Below is at Loftus road is which minute they have conceded, away team scoring 1st or 2nd and the final result.
DNC, DNC, DNC, 10th (1st) (L), 29th (1st) (L), 88th (2nd) (W), 8th (1st) (D), 23rd (1st) (L), 16th (1st) (D), 33rd (2nd) (D), 3rd (1st) (L), DNC, 8th (1st) (L)
No wonder QPR have only won 1 home game – they have scored the 1st goal at home in just 2 of their 13 games. While in the games QPR have conceded at home they have conceded the 1st goal in 78% (7/9).
So to summarise just can’t see goals or Utd conceding. Utd have scored in 11/13 away games ,the only games they lost were to 1-0 score lines (Everton, Norwich). I do like the fact that Utd tend to start away games well on the front foot, having scored in the 1st half in 9/11 f the away games they have scored in.
Utd to score in 1st half – only 8/15 instead take;
Both teams to score – ‘No’ – evens
Under 2.5 goals 5/4
Arsenal v Villa 15:00
PREVIEW
It is likely that Bayern would be too good for the vast majority of EPL sides so there is no shame in Arsenal going down to them at home in the CL (1-3) on Wednesday. However, the valid criticism of Arsenal must be of their dismal form in the domestic cups, competitions they could win, being knocked out by lower league opposition and of course the lack of top quality investment by one of the richest clubs in the UK. 4th place in the EPL is Wenger’s priority and that looks a long way away as they are currently in 5th place, 4 points behind Spurs who they are away to in a couple of weeks. Morale and confidence must be at rock bottom, so the visit of a team like Villa could be heaven sent as Arsenal have a habit of exposing poor teams at the Emirates, last time at home beating Stoke (1-0) and prior to that West Ham (5-1).
Villa are just 1 point and 1 place above the drop zone and they are currently picking up a few points including a last time home victory over West Ham (2-1). Interestingly , away recently 3 hard earned draws in a row at Swansea (2-2), West Brom (2-2) and Everton (3-3) last time away. They may be limited in terms of ability but not in so far as guts and commitment is concerned which cannot always be said for all the Arsenal players.
GA VERDICT
Who in their right mind would back this Arsenal team especially at 4/11. Think Blackburn not Bayern. It may well be an Arsenal win this and possibly winning it well but I have absolutely no faith in them especially against a Villa side fighting for their lives and doing fairly well away of late.
Everyone knows Arsenal can turn it on against bottom half teams at the Emirates, the stats don’t lie. Against Grade C/D teams at home this season Arsenal have W5 D2 and last season against the same grade teams W7 D2 L1. While that’s all good it has to be a worry that 69% (9/13) teams have scored at the Emirates this season and this is a Villa side that has scored in 8/13 away games and more impressively 2+ goals away in 4 of their last 5 ( all to Grade A/B sides)
I don’t think Arsenal will give Villa a hiding but I do expect lots of Arsenal chances and of course an obligatory Villa goal.
Key point in this game is when the 1st goal comes;
Villa away game minutes
2nd (scored 1st), 12th (scored 1st), 9th (scored 2nd), 3rd (did not score), 29th (scored 1st), 8th (scored 1st), 43rd (did not score), 57th (scored 1st), 84th (did not score), 58th (did not score), 36th (scored 1st), 22nd (scored 1st), 40th (did not score). – Aston Villa to score before the 79th min is 11/10 and this has landed in 8/13 Villa’s away games – every away game they have played. While in 9/13 home games Arsenal have conceded in 5th, 18th, 21st, 43rd, 88th, 10th, 29th, 20th, and 45th – so away teams have scored their goal before the 79th min in 8/9 games in which Arsenal have conceded.
So in 10 of Villa’s 13 away games goals scored in the 1st half. You tend to find with Arsenal if they don’t score in the 1st half they run out of ideas – the games in which they scored 6,3,5,7,5 and 2 their first goal in these games were scored before the 28th minute.
Aston Villa to score before 79th minute 11/10
Arsenal to win and over 2.5 goals is only 17/20 – I’d rather go in-play on +2.5 goals – but expecting an early goal
Reading v Wigan 15:00
PREVIEW
Reading are back in the relegation zone in 18th place on 23 points and it looks like it will be them, Wigan or Villa for the final 2 relegation places on the basis QPR are already doomed. They did lose at Stoke (2-1) last time in the EPL and then went out of the FA Cup at Man Utd (2-1), but in both games they showed tremendous fight and spirit. Prior to the Stoke game they had only lost 1 in 7 taking 14 points and at home beating West Ham (1-0), West Brom (3-2) and Sunderland (2-1), drawing with Swansea (0-0) and Chelsea (2-2), so it’s clear that their strength lies at home.
Wigan are 2 points behind Reading in 19th and the worry must be that they are not in any sort of EPL form and are running out of games. They won well at Huddersfield (1-4) in the FA Cup on Sunday and I wonder if their cup run has distracted them. Away recently draws at Fulham (1-1) and Stoke (2-2) and a thumping defeat last time away at Chelsea (4-1).
Wigan edged the reverse fixture 3-2 earlier in the season and you have to suspect there will be goals again here.
GA VERDICT
Its Reading’s home form that’s going to decide which division they are going to be plying their trade in next season. And their home form is rather impressive – unbeaten in 77% of their home games (10/13) – comparing that to their relegation compatriot’s unbeaten home form – Wigan 46%, Villa 54% and QPR 61%. Only Man Utd, Spurs and Arsenal have taken all 3 points away from the Mad Stad both scored 3+ goals past Reading.
10/13 home games have finished +2.5 goals/ 7 of these +3.5 goals
9/13 Wigan’s away games finished +2.5 goals/ 3 of these +3.5 goals
62% of the teams Wigan away have faced have scored 2+ goals past them. Wigan may be unpredictable but 1 market that has been profitable of late for whatever reason – Scoring 12 of their 13 away goals in the 2nd period – Surprised to see Wigan have only been behind at HT in 6/13 away games. Taking this into consideration and the fact that Reading are notoriously late scorers; Reading have seen +1.5 goals in the 2nd half of their home games in 7/13 games while Wigan have seen +1.5 goals in the 2nd half in the games in which they have conceded in in 8/10 away games.
A must win for both teams – momentum is with Reading. Expect to see goals as both have poor defences – Reading have conceded an average of 1.85 goals per home (24) game whilst Wigan have conceded the same amount away.
Both teams have scored in 10/13 Reading’s home games whilst surprised to see only BTS in 6/13 of Wigan’s away games but they have scored in 70% of these games (9/13).
Reading +1.5 goals 23/20
2nd goals – +1.5 goals – bear in mind score at HT – Wigan winning 0-1 will only accelerate goals with home side pushing more and more forward and if still 0-0 or 1-0 take – pre markets even should be around 6/5 inplay at HT
+2.5 goals 5/6 pre – take in-play around 6/5-11/8
Norwich v Everton 15:00
PREVIEW
Norwich are another team who are 6 points ahead of the drop zone and have seemingly decided to grind their way out of trouble by picking up a minimum of 1 point each game. 4 draws and a defeat in the last 5 games and prior to that 4 defeats in a row – hardly inspiring. Recently at home Newcastle (0-0), Spurs (1-1), Fulham (0-0). If you combine with these games with recent away performances at Liverpool (5-0) and QPR (0-0) and you start to see the pattern, a team desperately out of form grinding out points when they can, especially at home.
It may be that Everton’s fight for 4th place is beginning to tail off, currently 6 points behind Spurs in 4th , but this still remains an highly impressive season and they will want to finish well in both the EPL and FA CUP. They went down at Man Utd (2-0) last time out when they were never really given a look in by the highly impressive home team. Prior to that unbeaten in 5 away drawing at Man City (1-1), Stoke (1-1) and Southampton (0-0) and winning at West Ham (1-2) and Newcastle (1-2) – very decent performances at some very difficult grounds, although they have now failed to score in their last 2 away games at Southampton and Man Utd.
GA VERDICT
I’ve just about worked Everton’s plan this season away, outscoring the opposition but that has its consequences with just 2 away clean sheets all season and just 2 in their last 21 league games – Everton are just 11/10 for the win here and that’s too risky in my opinion. 9/13 of Norwich’s home games have finished under 2.5 goals including 4 of their last 5 – so under 2.5 goals here does look like the bet. Norwich have scored 2+ in just 1 of their last 9 home games. Norwich are without a win in their last 9 league games and taken 15% of points available from a possible 27 so don’t back Norwich even if you are a passionate Canaries fan.
If you need more convincing that this will be a tight game, only 1 of Norwich 13 home games has seen a swing of more than 1 goal either way (Liverpool 2-5) while just 4 of Everton’s away games have seen a margin of 2 goals or more between the 2 sides.
Draw in 46% of Everton’s away games and 39% of Norwich’s home games. There is never much between these 2 teams drawing this fixture 2-2 last season and both recent games at Goodison ending 1-1.
Score Draw 16/5
BTS 4/5
Sunday 24th February
Man City v Chelsea 13:30
PREVIEW
Man City have had a traumatic season and it is clear from their demolition of Leeds (4-0) in the FA Cup on Sunday that they view this as their only chance of silverware this season. The EPL is long gone, 12 points behind Utd with 12 games to play. City were absolutely spineless going down last time in the EPL at Southampton (3-1) and at home they continue to look strangely vulnerable against the better teams, being fortunate to escape with a point last time at home to Liverpool (2-2). Similarly, earlier in the season they were held at home and were fortunate against both Arsenal (1-1) and Everton (1-1) before losing their much vaunted home record to Man Utd (2-3).
Chelsea need to start accumulating EPL points to cement 3rd place as they are only a point ahead of Spurs in 4th who in turn are only 4 points ahead of Arsenal. In their last couple of away games they have given away points at Reading (2-2) – 2 late Reading goals, going down at Newcastle (3-2) last time away. They bounced back to beat Wigan (4-1) last time out – but what does that tell you??
Only 1 of the last 6 fixtures has seem more than a single goal between the teams, always tight and usually going in favour of the home side although it finished 0-0 at Stamford Bridge earlier in the Benitez era.
GA VERDICT
Man City are currently priced around evens for this game – I personally in games against other top team don’t like backing a winner. Chelsea man for man in my opinion probably just about have the better team. Man City aren’t the same team they were last year when you could guarantee them winning every game even against Top 6 teams – last year they took 55/57 points at home, this year 30 from a possible 39 so far. An even more alarming stat is that these dropped points have come to 6th placed Everton, 5th placed Arsenal, 1st placed Man Utd and 7th placed Liverpool. Their only win against a Top 7 side has come against Spurs (2-1). Man City’s last 18 home games read W13 D4 L1 and against Grade A sides W1 D1 L1.
I expect this game to be very tight and if a team emerges victorious it only to be by a 1 goal margin. Don’t back markets like HT/FT (landed in just 6/13 Man City home games). They have scored 2+ in 9/13 home games.
Chelsea’s away record of late has been impressive even by their high standards– 7/8 games have finished +2.5 goals – including dropping points from 4/5 away games. I think everyone is agreed on goals here- Chelsea need all 3 points here to close the gap to 1 point on Man City and widen the gap between them and Spurs. Problem is their defence, just 3 clean sheets in their last 12 games – Man City have scored in ALL 13 of their home games – Chelsea in 12/13 away games – both teams to score look generous at 8/11 but maybe a tad short as a single. I think the Chelsea double chance 1.79 is very favourable considering what that have done away against other top 6 teams this season, Arsenal (1-2), Spurs (2-4), and Everton (1-2).
Chelsea to score before the 64th minute – just look at their away games in which minute they have scored in; 55th, 45th, 45th, 42nd, 38th, 11th, 13th, 39th, 61st, 17th, 20th and 2nd. This bet would have landed in 12/13 of Chelsea away games – the other being QPR which they failed to score in. In the 7 games Man City have conceded in they have conceded in the 29th, 16th, 33rd, 21st, 82nd, 59th, 59th.
Man City to score +1.5 goals – evens I think we will get this around 11/8-6/4 given Man City’s tendency to strike late and take 25 mins to even look as if they are in the game. Chelsea’s defence just doesn’t fill me with confidence
I think this game will finish all square – but wouldn’t bet on it.
Newcastle v Southampton 13:30
PREVIEW
Newcastle’s recent revival when they won 2 in a row beating Villa (1-2) away and Chelsea (3-2) last time at home ended when they went down at Spurs (2-1) last time out but to be fair to them they were impressive and the only real different between the teams was Gareth Bale. They remain just 4 points outside the relegation zone but they should start easing themselves up the table if they continue playing as they have been in the last few games.
Southampton were terrific between Man City (3-1) last time out at home but they remain locked with Newcastle on 27 points, still in danger of being dragged into the relegation battle. I was surprised at how well they have been doing lately away, winning at Villa (0-1), good points at Fulham (1-1), Stoke (3-3), Chelsea (2-2) and Wigan (2-2), only going down in that recent period at Man Utd (2-1) in a close game. So that’s 7 points from the last 6 away games and if you throw in some home wins they should stay up.
GA VERDICT
Importantly, don’t forget that before this game will be played Newcastle face Metalist Kharkiv in the Europa Thursday Cup and remember what that meant after playing in the Europa Cup their following game on the weekend in the EPL was dire; they lost away at Chelsea (0-2), drew at home to Villa (1-1), beat Norwich at home (1-0), lost to Man Utd at home (0-3) last minute winner against West Brom (2-1) and lost at home to West Ham (0-1). So mixed to say the least. Playing midweek games in Europe is a skill, even Man City haven’t conquered it.
This Southampton side is starting to impress me especially away – I feel that they are capable of scoring every time they step onto the pitch (10/13 away games) and scoring in 21 of their 26 league games. They are unbeaten in just 46% of their away games but in their last 5 away games they are unbeaten in 80% of these. They face a Newcastle side with just 4 clean sheets all season and that has conceded in 77% of their games at St James Park. 2 bets I fancy here bearing in mind Newcastle’s Europa Cup game and Southampton 8/9 game unbeaten run.
Intriguing to see how many shots on goal/shots on target/goals scored at home/away. For a team scrapping at the bottom Southampton don’t half have lots of shots on goal;
Southampton away shots/on target and goals
V Wigan 15/7 (2), v Man Utd 21/10 (1), v Chelsea 7/3 (2), v Villa 11/4 (1), v Stoke 8/7 (3), v Fulham 7/3 (1), v Liverpool 8/4 (0), v QPR 21/15 (3), v West Brom 9/5 (0), v West Ham 8/2 (1), Everton 9/4 (1), Arsenal 9/6 (1), Man City 9/6 (2)
Newcastle shots conceded/ shots on target conceded and goals conceded at St James Park
Chelsea 12/6 (2), Reading 6/2 (2), Everton 7/6 (2), QPR 5/4 (0), Man City 16/10 (3), Wigan 9/4 (0), Swansea 15/9 (2), West Ham 10/5 (1), West Brom 8/4 (1), Man Utd 12/9 (3), Norwich 8/3 (0), Villa 13/9 (1), Spurs 12/6 (1).
5/7 of the last 7 teams have scored 2+ past Newcastle at home
Southampton double chance
Southampton +1.5 goals
Monday 25th February
West Ham v Spurs 20:00
PREVIEW
West Ham must be so glad for points accumulated at the beginning of the season as they are increasingly hard to come by now, only 8 points from the last 11 games including 7 defeats. Anything that does happen for them tends to happen at home as they are absolutely awful away going down at Villa (2-1) last time out. At home recently they have done ok, drawing with QPR (1-1) and beating Norwich (2-1) and Swansea (1-0) last time at home. Unfortunately for them they now take a step up in class and face a Spurs side fighting it out with Arsenal for 4th place.
Spurs are unbeaten since 9-12-12 and that 10 game unbeaten run has produced 22 points including a last time away win at West Brom (0-1), then beating Newcastle (2-1) last time out. Signs of a slowdown recently with just 5 goals scored in the last 5 games – 3 of which were drawn and quite frankly the 2 most recent victories totally down to Gareth Bale. In fact very tight away recently drawing at QPR (0-0) and Norwich (1-1) and winning at West Brom (0-1).
GA VERDICT
We all know that Spurs could and should win this game convincingly but look at their recent away form and factoring in that they are away in the Thursday Cup and suddenly it has the feel of the away game at QPR a few weeks ago where the home team starts with a point and is determined to finish with a point at least.
I am definitely not underestimating this West Ham side, they have scored in 93% of their home games (12/13) – Man City the only team they failed against. Their home scoring breaks down to 1,3,1,1,4,0,1,3,2,1,2,1, and 1 – crucially failing to score a 2nd goal in 62% of these home games. I do feel uncomfortable in backing a West Ham side with just 2 wins in their last 11 games, just 2 clean sheets in their last 15 games and just 3 wins in their last 8 home games BUT this is a West Ham side that at home are a match for anyone unbeaten in 77% (10/13) just ask Chelsea and Man City..
Not sure how much longer Spurs can rely on the brilliance of Gareth Bale, he has to have a quiet game sooner of later – and I imagine Nolan will already be planning were to leave his studs on him. Last 3 away games under 2.5 goals but they have scored in 12/13 away games. I will certainly not be advising goals here – Spurs scoring just 7 in their last 5
Both teams to score 4/5 /Under 2.5 goals evens/West Ham double chance 1.70
BANKER
Watford to beat Derby at 5/6
Watford anytime correct score 1-0 3/5
Watford win + 2.5 goals just 8/5
The Hornets have been flying of late and they should be able to see off away-day strugglers Derby. The Rams have plenty of injuries to contend with and have an away record which reads PL 16 W 3 D4 L9. Derby have just 2 away clean sheets all season, conceding 2+ in 10/16 away games. Watford have scored 2+ goals in 10/11 games and in 10/16 home games – (Watford +1.5 goals 8/11)
Peterborough v Birmingham
+2.5 goals 4/6 – take in-play , +3.5 goals 13/8
BTS add to your accum – too low for my liking at 4/7
Surprised given Birmingham’s away record W4 D6 L6 that they have scored in 13/16 away games but not surprised to see clean sheets in just 12 of these games (2/16).
Peterborough unbeaten in their last 5 home games W4 D1 – in fact they are probably in the best patch of their season with 6 wins from their last 10 games – (20points from 30 available). At home they have just 1 clean sheet all season at home – failing to score in 2 of their home games – so its no surprise when I tell you that they have seen +2.5 goals in 81% of their home games (13/16) with +3.5 goals in 6/16
Bristol City v Barnsley
Barnsley to score +1.5 goals 13/10
Take +2.5 goals in-play 3/4 pre
Hard to pick a winner – just 6 points separating each other. 4 home wins in their last 5 games for Bristol while Barnsley have won their last 4 league games and are correctly unbeaten in their last 8 games in all competitions with impressive away victories at Boro (2-3), Blackpool (1-2), MK Dons (1-3) and Millwall (1-2). 2 away clean sheets all season. Bristol City failed to score in 3 at home whilst just 2 home clean sheets in 16 attempts which has come in their last 2 home games. A must win for Bristol.
Score Draw
Blackburn v Leeds
Asian Handicap Blackburn -0.0, -0.5 1.75
Rhodes anytime 5/6
Leeds are unbackable away just 1 point from their last 18 available on the road and 7 defeats in their last 9 away games in fact they just have 1 away win in their last 12 games. Got to fancy this Blackburn side to score against a Leeds side that has conceded in their last 19 away games. Not sure I’d back goals here Blackburn have scored in 14/16 of their home games and clean sheets in 38% of their home games. I am not one to normally back goals but can see Jordan Rhodes causing the Leeds backline all sorts of problems he has scored 9 of Blackburn’s 19 home goals – he’s 5/6 anytime and 7/2 FGS
Charlton v Forest
Both teams to score 4/5
Match to end as a Draw 11/5
We have to go all the way back some 14 league games ago since Charlton last kept a clean sheet in the league. Saying that they’ve only kept 2 home clean sheets all season and conceded a whopping 1.7 goals per home game and they play a Forest side are unbeaten in Billy Davies 2nd coming and that put 6 past Huddersfield in their last game
