Terrelle Pryor is vastly overrated
Buckeyes QB has elite numbers, but they tend to come against weaker foes
By KC Joyner
In looking over the Heisman candidacy of Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Terrelle Pryor, I cannot help but think back to when Andre Dawson won the 1987 National League MVP award.
Dawson certainly had a good season in some respects. He belted 49 home runs and batted in 137 runs, both of which were league-leading totals. The majority of the voters figured power numbers of that caliber were enough to vault Dawson to the top of their ballot, but Bill James had a different viewpoint in his 1987 Baseball Abstract. He figured those statistics were the numerical equivalent of empty calories.
He started by pointing out that Dawson's overall statistics weren't really that impressive. His .287 batting average was just below the median mark among NL outfielders, as were most of his other offensive stats. James also showed how Dawson's numbers were inflated in large part because he played in Wrigley Field.
After poking a hole in the statistical balloon, James proceeded to rant against what he saw as the real reasons behind the nomination. Quoting the Abstract:
"So why did he win the MVP award? I know what some people will say. It wasn't Dawson's statistics, it was his leadership and throwing arm. People will say that, but you know it isn't. You don't give an MVP for 'leadership' on a last-place team. Half the time, the MVP award goes to the league leader in RBIs. That's not leadership; that's statistics. And if they really understood his statistics, they wouldn't have done it."
One could make an almost identical argument regarding the Heisman case for Pryor.
His numbers may look gaudy at first glance, but a closer look at them and the real reasons he is among the front-runners for the award show that Pryor may be the most overrated player in college football.
Let's start with the aforementioned gaudy numbers. Pryor is ranked sixth in FBS in passer rating, tied for seventh in touchdown passes, 14th in completion percentage and 13th in yards per pass attempt.
Those are all elite totals, yes -- but Pryor's performance is also skewed by favorable circumstances. Four of his games have come against the Marshall Thundering Herd (1-4 Conference USA team), Eastern Michigan Eagles (0-6 MAC team), Ohio Bobcats (3-3 MAC team with wins against Wofford and Eastern Michigan) and Indiana Hoosiers (possibly the worst team in the Big Ten).
Pryor completed 83 of 110 passes for 1,040 yards, 12 touchdowns and two interceptions in these contests. That equates to a phenomenal 187.24 passer rating when facing subpar opponents.
Now look at how Pryor did when the competition level was turned up. In the games against the Miami Hurricanes and Illinois Fighting Illini, he completed 21 of 43 passes for 309 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Put those into the quarterback calculator and it comes up with a passer rating of 127.52, a total that would rank 63rd in FBS this year.
It might be easy to give Pryor a pass for these stats if they were a two-game anomaly, but his 2009 numbers provide a similar showing.
When facing strong foes last season (strong defined as the USC Trojans, Illinois, Wisconsin Badgers, Purdue Boilermakers, Minnesota Golden Gophers, Penn State Nittany Lions, Iowa Hawkeyes, Michigan Wolverines and Oregon Ducks), Pryor posted 108 completions in 195 attempts for 1,357 yards, 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Pryor's overall passer rating for those games was 123.58, or just about equal to his 2010 mark against tough opponents.
That shows Pryor doesn't have the statistical history to back up the idea that he is a great quarterback. But, as was the case with Dawson, his nomination may not really be based on his overall performance but rather on a much smaller set of metrics.
The Heisman Predictor, a fantastic tool developed by Ryan McCrystal of the ESPN Stats and Information department, uses a combination of historical voting patterns and statistics to predict who the voters are going to select as the winner of this prestigious award. It currently has Pryor ranked second with 111 points, but 70 of his points come from non-performance related areas (20 for being a Big Ten player, 25 for being an offensive player, 25 for being a quarterback). He also gets nine points for team victories, so 79 of his points could be said to come from being the quarterback of a successful Big Ten team.
This shows that, if history is any indicator, voters are likely to ignore Pryor's passing numbers as long as the Buckeyes keep winning. If that happens and Pryor plays as poorly in big games as he has the past season and a half, it would mean the Heisman didn't go to the best player in college football. It would instead be going to the highest profile player on the best team.
And it would be just as much of a misguided nomination as Dawson's MVP award was.