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  • LAVA Moderator: Shinji Ikari

the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

Thank you. I was on a trading desk in the Dot Com Era. I was a young Cowboy, and it was a wild ride, till the end. The crash urt a lot of people who had no business in that market, but that is how it always plays out.
Bring the sheep in to Slaughter , and take your profit and run, before the music stops.
Was the same game last time in the great Recession, we all knew those loans would not be paid. The real News Big Lie, was that we are selling them all to the Chinese and they will take the loss!! That did not work out to well??
 
Russia currently has a Debt to GDP ratio of ~18%, MUCH better than the rest of the world. So, I'm thinking about buying some Russian ETFs while they're down. I don't think a war will last long. They'll take and divide up Ukraine and the currently incompetent U.S. won't do shit. Europe won't do shit. China won't either.
 
Russian market was down 45%, closed -33%. I just bought some shares of RUSL 2x etf as a high risk gamble that it bounces back some.

Here's the Russian MOEX index:

Russia Stock Market Index MOEX CFD - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News

The main stock market index in Russia (MOEX) increased 35 points or 1.23% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from Russia. Russia Stock Market Index MOEX CFD - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated...
tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com
 
Electrum1 said:
Russian market was down 45%, closed -33%. I just bought some shares of RUSL 2x etf as a high risk gamble that it bounces back some.

Here's the Russian MOEX index:

Russia Stock Market Index MOEX CFD - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News

The main stock market index in Russia (MOEX) increased 35 points or 1.23% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from Russia. Russia Stock Market Index MOEX CFD - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated...
tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com
Click to expand...
Just sold for +11% gain, nice.
 
Xorkoth said:
I suspect you're right.
Click to expand...
I was wrong. It worked for a quick trade, +11%, but the U.S. listed Russian stocks and even ETFs are now halted by FINRA. I don't have much in them, but I do have some. If they get un-halted then I'm buying $NILSY because nickel has gone up. Wanted Lukoil and Gazprom (oil), but if I'm allowed to buy again then I'm buying NILSY.
 
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GL w the Russia stuff. Tempting, but I was late to really consider it -- and the current global dynamic is a shitshow and I have no real confidence about where/when it'll end up now. But I figure the door to retail will reopen only once the big players are repositioned.

Noting the Crescat graphic. I'm usually on the Friday call.
 
I'm having a hard time figuring out whether to back U.S. big cap or small cap in 2022.

It's clear that the stars have aligned for rate normalization to finally happen, which has already cut massively overvalued tech down a notch. The problem is that the top of the S&P 500 = top of NASDAQ, so if tech continues to slump then it's going to be an anchor on the rest for a while.

As far as small cap goes, well... Russell 2000 companies seem like the type that would profit if we do see a "Roaring 20s" style recover. Sin stocks galore! OTOH, those are exactly the type of companies that probably would not mesh very well with the notion of ESG investing...

Thoughts?
 
thujone said:
I'm having a hard time figuring out whether to back U.S. big cap or small cap in 2022.

It's clear that the stars have aligned for rate normalization to finally happen, which has already cut massively overvalued tech down a notch. The problem is that the top of the S&P 500 = top of NASDAQ, so if tech continues to slump then it's going to be an anchor on the rest for a while.

As far as small cap goes, well... Russell 2000 companies seem like the type that would profit if we do see a "Roaring 20s" style recover. Sin stocks galore! OTOH, those are exactly the type of companies that probably would not mesh very well with the notion of ESG investing...

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
I'm going to wait for a recession before I buy more mid to long term holds. I want a bigger discount. I'm holding some stuff like VKTX that could put out surprise clinical data, but I'm waiting until after the November elections to see if the fed causes a recession to combat inflation before I put a lot in. For now I'm just trading ETFs for quick trades and penny stock custodianship/reverse mergers that don't really care what the larger markets do. It's been working.

Would be nice if they lifted the Russian stock ban so I could buy NILSY at a massively discounted price. Same for Lukoil and Gazprom, but who knows how that'll go, wouldn't be surprised to get put on the no-fly list for buying Russian stocks, lol.

I did buy a small cap recently (POWW) because they're expanding production capacity to 1B rounds a year, and have a lower valuation than peers. I like your small cap idea if you can find good ones. I'm sure POWW doesn't have the most favorable ESG score tho, lol.
 
This is for a sheltered account so I'm looking for stable growth more than riskier stuff. I might just keep plowing into dividend equities since those are stable, it'd be nice to keep cash-like stability in case an opportunity comes along to deploy that money elsewhere
 
Well this was definitely unexpected. Maybe we get gold and silver advertisements before AMC movies now, lol

FN4x24OWUAE2X-c


HYMC stock is +90% right now pre-market
 
I'm actually pretty focused on mining, because PMs provide strong signals about the strength and direction of the economy. FWIW, the relative strength of copper futures is why I don't believe there is a recession on the horizon.
 
Bought YARIY today. Figure I may as well play the fertilizer shortage since it doesn't seem like it's going away. Going to buy MOS too on the next pullback. Hope I didn't buy in at the top.
 
never heard of YARIY, did you buy that through a european exchange? i don't know really anything about the fertilizer industry except that some is made out of natural gas and potash, both of which canada is a top producer of.

it's a good time for resources, which means it's a good time for canadian equities, hopefully the government doesn't ruin what remains of the industrial base :\
 
thujone said:
never heard of YARIY, did you buy that through a european exchange? i don't know really anything about the fertilizer industry except that some is made out of natural gas and potash, both of which canada is a top producer of.

it's a good time for resources, which means it's a good time for canadian equities, hopefully the government doesn't ruin what remains of the industrial base :\
Click to expand...
I bought it through my normal brokerage account. Its on the OTC so I had to pay a 6.95 fee to buy it. Hasn't moved much compared to others like IPI, MOS, NTR and CF. I figured it was a safer fertilizer play in Europe since Norway pumps a bunch of oil and may not suffer as much with rising energy costs, we'll see tho.

One Canadian resource related stock I bought some of recently is CCJ, since the world may start reopening nuclear plants, especially Europe.
 
Electrum1 said:
Well this was definitely unexpected. Maybe we get gold and silver advertisements before AMC movies now, lol

FN4x24OWUAE2X-c


HYMC stock is +90% right now pre-market
Click to expand...
HYMC just raised another $139M

Definitely going up tomorrow. I may buy some of the warrants that expire in 2025 HYMCL. They have W and Z warrants too, but iirc they expire earlier.

 
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