I’d say for those who try crack or meth there is a 99% chance it will happen again - only 1% never touch it again after that first use.
That’s my take
Honestly, this question was partially out of simple curiosity on what people here have experienced and partly as a personal inquiry. The personal aspect mainly pertained to cocaine (and to a lesser extent, meth.) I've never used any "hard drugs", closest I've come is pretty mild - daily amphetamine prescription where I've almost always either undershot the allowance or followed it to a T, occasional MDMA and ketamine use - but cocaine mildly intrigues me and there is something about methamphetamine that I find equal parts fascinating and horrifying. I have no interest in ever trying crack, pyros, or opioids (closest I've come to the latter is taking low doses of kratom for a couple 1-3 day periods to treat pain from mild running injuries), but in all likelihood I will end up trying methamphetamine, mephedrone, and probably cocaine at least once each in my lifetime.
Several months ago, I bought $20 worth of coke off a random dealer in a parking lot after a rave while somewhat drunk and off a lot of Phenibut (Yes, I know that combining downers and alcohol is a horrible decision.) but was thankfully smart enough not to do it with alcohol in my system and without getting it tested. A couple chicks I'm friends with got a bunch of free coke from the dude because he didn't know that they had boyfriends and was trying to fuck them, and they told me that it was really good shit (One of them is pretty experienced with coke, not sure about the other.) I've never done coke and when I sobered up I realized that I probably shouldn't start, so that tiny bag has just been sitting there since. A friend of mine has been doing a ton of coke lately and told me that he won't tell me to take or not take it but he described what it feels like. It sounded pretty interesting, but I don't think I'll end up liking it enough to do it more than once given the addiction potential.
In a similar situation a few months prior involving far more alcohol and no Phenibut, I bought a "speed pill" for $10 off this drug dealer chick I know at a party. It tested positive for caffeine and meth. I don't love the fact that it contains caffeine (iirc a lowish % but I'll probably end up orally taking a quarter or half of it next time I need to really bust my ass writing essays. I've known both people who have only done meth once or twice (accidentally and intentionally) and people who became addicts, but I'm really curious as to how different it really is from adderall and at the end of the day, nothing has been able to kill that curiosity over the years.
I think that as long as I can hold myself to the limit never buying another dose of either chemical after I use up the $30 worth I already have, I should be okay. But the way that I phrased that obviously sounds much easier than it would ever be in reality.