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  • Current Events & Politics Moderators: deficiT | tryptakid | Foreigner

Covid-19 Outbreak of new SARS-like coronavirus (Covid-19)

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I’m not talking nuclear weapons or Stalin, Hitler or any of those assholes. What kinda bothered me was @novaveritas saying “The Coronavirus isn’t anything special.” So I gave a very real and recent article talking about how immunity isn’t guaranteed. This virus does not behave like others where the antibodies and immunity protects you. I just wanted to make that clear.

All the anger at one another isn’t necessary, us regular folks are all in this together.

WHO warning: No evidence that antibody tests can show coronavirus immunity

"Nobody is sure whether someone with antibodies is fully protected against having the disease or being exposed again," he said.

"Plus some of the tests have issues with sensitivity," he added. "They may give a false negative result."

Earlier this week, WHO officials said not all people who recover from the coronavirus have the antibodies to fight a second infection, raising concern that patients may not develop immunity after surviving Covid-19.

"With regards to recovery and then reinfection, I believe we do not have the answers to that. That is an unknown," Ryan said Monday.

———————————————
Saying “the Coronavirus is nothing special” is not being realistic at all. Doctors haven’t figured it out yet. Immunity is not guaranteed.

The rest of the article is here:
 
I concur with C2C about the anger/hostility, can we tone it down? It's really not helpful to anything, especially this conversation.

Corona virus vaccine might be impossible some people have now been reinfected 3 times and its showing no signs of giving them immunity. the immunity fades within a week this virus is going to get really bad. Is it possible we might see a repeat of the mass scale deaths of the spanish flu when the second wave comes?

This is simply untrue. It is possible some people have been reinfected once, though the jury is out. I have seen no evidence of 3 times. The evidence of twice is a very small percentage of people who tested positive after being infected once. However the sources that claim this, to my knowledge, also say that the people who tested positive had no symptoms if they had already been infected. The tests we currently have are notoriously unreliable, and often give false positives and false negatives. Stating that people are being infected 4 times and that immunity lasts a week is fearmongering, I get that you believe it so you think you're spreading good information, but people are already overwhelmed with fear and adding this falsehood does not help anyone.
 
I concur with C2C about the anger/hostility, can we tone it down? It's really not helpful to anything, especially this conversation.



This is simply untrue. It is possible some people have been reinfected once, though the jury is out. I have seen no evidence of 3 times. The evidence of twice is a very small percentage of people who tested positive after being infected once. However the sources that claim this, to my knowledge, also say that the people who tested positive had no symptoms if they had already been infected. The tests we currently have are notoriously unreliable, and often give false positives and false negatives. Stating that people are being infected 4 times and that immunity lasts a week is fearmongering, I get that you believe it so you think you're spreading good information, but people are already overwhelmed with fear and adding this falsehood does not help anyone.

I think he was trying to say people are being reinfected. That’s true. I don’t know about “3 times”, but reinfection happens. I think that was the gist of it.

“Earlier this week, WHO officials said not all people who recover from the coronavirus have the antibodies to fight a second infection, raising concern that patients may not develop immunity after surviving Covid-19”

All we can do is wait until they figure this shit out.
 
GENERAL WARNING ON PERSONAL ATTACKS/INSULTS

If you can't post without getting personal or name calling, please just don't bother. If you see a post that crosses that line , please report it instead of retaliating. This crap takes up way too much time. I don't care what your politics are, you will get points from now on . This has been an ongoing issue for way too long.
 
I'm deranged - says the guy who feels the need to hurl insults. Bit of projection there buddy?

Deffo! :D

My apologies for resorting to calling you deranged. I was rather offended by your insinuation that I was a Russophobe and reacted in a way that was based in anger.
Though I see it is an insinuation that you're stubbornly continuing with, but I'll let it pass because you don't know me from a hole in the wall and your insinuations in this regard are laughable.

Good day. :)
 
Anyway.....back to tripping out about the fact that I'm now reading that there is no proof that people who have recovered are now immune to the virus. If this were proven to be true, how shit would that be?

Is there precedent with other viruses? By which I mean, are there other viruses that have been shown to not effect an immune response that would convey immunity post-infection?
 
^ look at post 1588. Of course we don't know yet, but the scariest possible potential is that these initial deaths are just the tip of the iceberg, people who could not handle the initial infection or were mega exsposed. Look at how HIV works, the timeline. (scary similarities and possibilities) I am not saying that covid will work like this, but im saying its got the possibility. I'm staying calm though as what else you going to do?
 
GENERAL WARNING ON PERSONAL ATTACKS/INSULTS

If you can't post without getting personal or name calling, please just don't bother. If you see a post that crosses that line , please report it instead of retaliating. This crap takes up way too much time. I don't care what your politics are, you will get points from now on . This has been an ongoing issue for way too long.


I'm going to apologise to everyone here for my needlessly aggravated reaction.

Sincere apologies, carry on. :)
 
it is easy to call employees "essential" when at home in quarantine, that's what the owners are doing. I would like to see the daughter of one these callers doing essential jobs, such as cleaning hospitals, streets, etc.
 
Is this virus not significantly different from HIV? In structure and function?

Its certainly different, but shares structural similarities that allow it to attack some types of our T cells. These cells are the very hunters responsible for a huge portion of combating viral infections. They don't appear to effect the T Cells in the same way, but may gain access in the same way. A worry is that infection with the virus may lead to a symptomless period where the virus weakens our immune system leading to a condition like AIDS. That's just a possibility and I guess time and research will tell.
 
GENERAL WARNING ON PERSONAL ATTACKS/INSULTS

If you can't post without getting personal or name calling, please just don't bother. If you see a post that crosses that line , please report it instead of retaliating. This crap takes up way too much time. I don't care what your politics are, you will get points from now on . This has been an ongoing issue for way too long.
omg ! i love that sign. umma goin ta steal it !
 
Its certainly different, but shares structural similarities that allow it to attack some types of our T cells. These cells are the very hunters responsible for a huge portion of combating viral infections. They don't appear to effect the T Cells in the same way, but may gain access in the same way. A worry is that infection with the virus may lead to a symptomless period where the virus weakens our immune system leading to a condition like AIDS. That's just a possibility and I guess time and research will tell.

Ah, I see. You're worried about longer term immune systme deficiency caused by initial infection.

I don't know how HIV works exactly. Does it continue to attack T cells indefinitely?
 
Ah, I see. You're worried about longer term immune systme deficiency caused by initial infection.

I don't know how HIV works exactly. Does it continue to attack T cells indefinitely?

Yes, it attacks the human immune system, not just the T cells until it weakens it enough to cause AIDS or Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome. This eventually weakens the immune system so much it looses to another threat. From the early work they published about the virus it reacts much differently once it gains access to the T cell which hopefully is good news. The fact that its able to kill some types of T cells is unnerving. But there is so much they don't yet know about it so hopefully we get good news as they figure this all out.
 
I concur with C2C about the anger/hostility, can we tone it down? It's really not helpful to anything, especially this conversation.



This is simply untrue. It is possible some people have been reinfected once, though the jury is out. I have seen no evidence of 3 times. The evidence of twice is a very small percentage of people who tested positive after being infected once. However the sources that claim this, to my knowledge, also say that the people who tested positive had no symptoms if they had already been infected. The tests we currently have are notoriously unreliable, and often give false positives and false negatives. Stating that people are being infected 4 times and that immunity lasts a week is fearmongering, I get that you believe it so you think you're spreading good information, but people are already overwhelmed with fear and adding this falsehood does not help anyone.
A south korean man was reinfected 3 times it was on the news and aljaazrea.
 
I think we are in a pretty damned situation: I think we weren't at all prepared for this pandemic. I understand the pressure to reopen the economy, and how it could cost even more American (or whathaveyou) jobs, livelihoods, lives, if the closure is allowed to continue as it has, possibly even more than if we had just let the disease run it's "course" (which may mean many people die). But I didn't start thinking this -- I started this crisis with the lack of understanding why "money" is such a big thing - why we can't just in an emergency such as this, freeze things for a month, or two- Keep producing what we absolutely need to, keep moving groceries and things around, but make it so rent is waived, make it so people don't need to worry about money, at all... I still wish we had such a robust system, with ability to do this, and still think this crisis makes it all clearer that we do need some form of universal basic income, or at least that available in an emergency... I still don't know how that would be accomplished. In the beginning, I thought we were doing too much for actually doing too little. I didn't think we were shutting things down enough. My idea was - at first, how we can starve/contain the virus, completely, to eliminate it before it spreads farther. I still think that - if we were prepared and able, this would have been the better option (even now, although it'd be a great big undertaking, we could plan a shut-down period that could, theoretically, if the human world could just cooperate, eliminate the virus from our pool). But then there is always the possibility of re-infection; Your country does the right things, the ones you trade with, however, don't, and then you're pressured to open your economy, and open it to them, while they also reopen it - while China reopens theirs. Where the people that traded with you, in your absence, might trade with them.

This virus required a near whole world shut down, with people cooperating, and governments able to coordinate the right people to do the right labor to keep things afloat, for everyone to do a reset, so to speak, start back up in "safe mode" and then run one of those long anti-virus scans. But they did too little, too late, and probably weren't even prepared and able to in this "world economy". If we were more isolated, our economies not as intertangled/intertwined perhaps we could have done this, and controlled it better.

My brother gave me an insightful story about WWII, and I think it applies to what is going on: It was that after WWII, the U.S. became the sole world superpower, right off, because we were about the only ones involved, the biggest actor that didn't get bombed on constantly, that didn't lose their ability to produce. So after WWII, in the vacancy of things, the U.S. was able to fill that vacancy, to "help" and be an ally. This is one of the reasons for our becoming a superpower, as we were/have-been.

Now- China may be in that position. For one, their response was, as bad as it was to start, they were more "totalitarian". They did perhaps a better job at containing it than we have to that region where it started. In the west we have bum-tards that shout "civil rights" in such a circumstance as this, protesting based on that idea. They seem to not realize that what they propose may actually be against civilization, and cannot be seen as a right. It's not right, even if you believe it to be so, to do something that harms what you (or civilization) require to function. Certain right supersedes these other, so-called 'rights', or, those rights exist for those other "rights" (at least, that's how I've independently interpreted what a right actually really is, when it wasn't clear to me).

But I know I haven't explained my not fully thought out thoughts... But I think this is what we are going through right now, with the pressure to reopen. I think people are rightly worried about the economy, and our place in the world- Everyone's trying to reopen, to basically maintain standing/footing. And standing does matter. More people may die, more life might be destroyed, our way of life might suffer greatly, if we don't. We may have to pay for it with lives, if a vaccine doesn't work (some are doubtful), and I've also heard that many people who have got it have got reinfected, more than twice, some... And it may be something that continues on and on, until, well, 500 years from now the virus has shaped the genome, and (I don't know) the people left have some sort of natural immunity to it. Not that it's going to be such a black and/or white picture. Still most people survive... but the idea that we can become reinfected, that immunity probably doesn't last very long(?) if we even get it, just increased the chances and time for it to "work" in the population - to make an impact.
 
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Governors: Trump's comments on testing and restrictions ‘delusional’

by Richard Luscombe and Edward Helmore | The Guardian | 19 April 2020

State leaders say they cannot embark on Trump’s three-phase program to ease stay-at-home orders without widespread testing.

US governors have accused Donald Trump of making “delusional” and “dangerous” statements amid mounting tensions between the president and state leaders over coronavirus testing and pressure to roll back stay-at-home measures.

The United States has by far the world’s largest number of confirmed coronavirus cases, with more than 730,000 infections and over 39,600 deaths.

Many state leaders have said they cannot embark on Trump’s recommended three-phrase programme to ease stay-at-home restrictions without a robust and widespread system of testing in place.

Researchers at Harvard University have suggested the US should conduct more than three times the number of coronavirus tests it is currently administering over the course of the next month, the New York Times reported.

Democratic governor Ralph Northam of Virginia told CNN on Sunday that "claims by Trump and Vice-President Mike Pence that states have plenty of tests are just delusional.”

“We have been fighting for testing,”
he said on CNN’s State of the Union. “We don’t even have enough swabs, believe it or not. For the national level to say that we have what we need, and really to have no guidance to the state levels, is just irresponsible, because we’re not there yet.”

Maryland, Virginia and Washington DC are still seeing increasing cases even as the center of the US outbreak, New York, has started to see some declines. Boston and Chicago are also emerging hot spots with recent surges in cases and deaths.

Maryland, Virginia and Washington DC are still seeing increasing cases even as the center of the US outbreak, New York, has started to see some declines. Boston and Chicago are also emerging hot spots with recent surges in cases and deaths.

“The administration I think is trying to ramp up testing, they are doing some things with respect to private labs,” said Republican governor Larry Hogan of Maryland during a CNN interview. “But to try to push this off, to say the governors have plenty of testing and they should just get to work on testing, somehow we aren’t doing our jobs, is just absolutely false.”

Several states, including Ohio, Texas and Florida, have said they aim to reopen parts of their economies, perhaps by 1 May or even sooner, but appeared to be staying cautious.

The White House guidelines released late last week on reopening the economy recommend a state record 14 days of declining case numbers before gradually lifting restrictions. Yet in a series of tweets from Trump on Friday, the president called for the “liberation” of Minnesota, Michigan and Virginia, Democratic-led states with strict stay-at-home orders, and appeared to be the catalyst for protests backed by rightwing groups in several places, including Texas, Maryland and Ohio.

In his tweet on Friday the president claimed without evidence that Virginia citizens’ second amendment rights were “under siege” after Northam signed into law tighter firearms restrictions a week earlier.

In Austin, the Texas state capital, protesters called on Trump to fire Dr Anthony Fauci, the leading US expert on infectious diseases, from his task force tackling the pandemic crisis.

Washington governor Jay Inslee, a Democrat who on Friday blasted Trump’s tweets as “unhinged rantings,” and one of the most vocal critics of the president, reinforced his position on Sunday.

“I don’t know any other way to characterize it,” Inslee told host George Stephanopoulos on ABC’s This Week. “To have an American president encourage people to violate the law, I can’t remember any time during my time in America where we have seen such a thing. And it is dangerous because it can inspire people to ignore things that actually can save their lives."

“It is doubly frustrating to us governors because this is such a schizophrenia. The president is basically asking people,
‘Please ignore Dr Fauci and Dr Birx, please ignore my own guidelines that I set forth,’ because those guidelines make very clear… that you cannot open up Michigan today, or Virginia, under those guidelines. You need to see a decline in the infections and fatalities. And that simply has not happened yet.”

Pence insisted in an interview aired on NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday that the country had “sufficient capacity” for any state to go to the phase one level.

But Hogan and others said the issue is not as straightforward as presented by Pence.

“Every governor in America has been pushing and fighting and clawing to get more tests, not only from the federal government, but from every private lab in America and from all across the world. It’s not accurate to say there’s plenty of testing out there, and the governors should just get it done.”

Hogan said he was sympathetic to the protesters. “I’m frustrated also,” he said. “But I don’t think it’s helpful to encourage demonstrations. To encourage people to go protest the plan that you just made recommendations on, it just doesn’t make any sense. We’re sending completely conflicting messages out to the governors and to the people, as if we should ignore federal policy and federal recommendations.”

Gretchen Whitmer, the Democratic governor of Michigan, where some of the earliest protests took place last week, once again strongly defended strict lockdown restrictions in her state, the 10th largest by population but third highest in the nation in terms of Covid-19 deaths.

“My stay-home order is one of the nation’s more conservative. but the fact of the matter is, it’s working. We are seeing the curve start to flatten and that means we’re saving lives,” she said.

“But we could double or even triple the number of tests if we had the swabs and reagents. That’s precisely why it would really be incredibly helpful if the federal government would use the Defense Production Act to start making these swabs and reagents, so we can improve testing.”

 
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After Repeated Failures, It’s Time To Permanently Dump Epidemic Models

Since the AIDS epidemic, people have been pumping out such models with often incredible figures. For AIDS, the Public Health Service announced (without documenting) there would be 450,000 cases by the end of 1993, with 100,000 in that year alone. The media faithfully parroted it. There were 17,325 by the end of that year, with about 5,000 in 1993. SARS (2002-2003) was supposed to kill perhaps “millions,” based on analyses. It killed 744 before disappearing.

Later, avian flu strain A/H5N1, “even in the best-case scenarios” was to “cause 2 (million) to 7 million deaths” worldwide. A British professor named Neil Ferguson scaled that up to 200 million. It killed 440. This same Ferguson in 2002 had projected 50-50,000 deaths from so-called “Mad Cow Disease.” On its face, what possible good is a spread that large? (We shall return to this.) But the final toll was slightly over 200.

In the current crisis the most alarming model, nay probably the most influential in the implementation of the draconian quarantines worldwide, projected a maximum of 2.2 million American deaths and 550,000 United Kingdom deaths unless there were severe restrictions for 18 months or until a vaccine was developed. The primary author: Neil Ferguson. Right, Mad Cow/Avian Flu Fergie.

Then a funny thing happened. A mere nine days after announcing his model, Ferguson said a better number for the U.K. would be only 20,000. The equivalent would be fewer than 80,000 American deaths. Technically, that U.K. number was buried in a table in the report under what might be called “a fantastic case scenario.” But could that reduction possibly reflect a mere nine days of restrictions? No.

Personally, I still believe in using models, they just need to be improving in how they use early data. Hell, every year we have Hurricane models and hardly any of them match the true path. But with repitition comes the opportunity for improvement. I'm not seeing this year's pandemic projections, or reactions, as improvement.

Oh, and stop listening this Ferguson fella.
 
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