Covid-19 Outbreak of new SARS-like coronavirus (Covid-19)

[JessFR]

CFR for ordinary coronaviruses, the ordinary human ones that cause the common cold is up to 6% in certain circumstances.

In certain circumstances? Wtf is that supposed to mean.

 

[Painful One]

You know, I believe there is a bad virus out there that does kill people but I cannot shake the feeling in my very DNA and soul that tells me something else is going on here.

We need to figure out what that “something else” is and quickly.

Our freedoms and Liberty are being taken away day by day.
We will soon be in a position where there is no return.

 

[Wilson Wilson]

Except it was ALSO widely reported at the time that those numbers would likely change as time went on.

That people don't pay any notice to that disclaimer is their fault. It's the unavoidable consequence of data taking a while to become more accurate.

We really don't seem to know just yet what the true mortality rate is. Or more accurately, there probably isn't one because your mortality rate is dependent on various factors, probably including the state of the health care you get. Hence the numbers being all over the place.

All that matters is, was there good reason to believe it was substantially more deadly than the common flu? Yes. Is there still? Yes.

I'm not saying it's less deadly than the flu. Someone else said that.

What I'm saying is the media looks at the data, picks the highest estimate possible because scaring people gets clicks and makes revenue, and they run with it.

The people who trust the MSM are fed these exaggerations and fabrications of doom and gloom because they trust things if they're on TV. This is ignorant, yes, but that doesn't absolve the MSM of blame for exploiting that ignorance to generate fear just so they can make more money.

If the media actually reported the truth with no sensationalism they'd sell fewer papers, get fewer clicks, and make less money. Can't have that now can we?

 

[Xorkoth]

The asteroid thing, by the way, is click-fear-bait... NASA said it will come within 3.9 million miles of Earth. That is a far cry from impact, though in celestial terms it is indeed close. Please don't worry about an asteroid hitting us in April, there is plenty to worry about in the world without believing clickbait articles that are just trying to get advertising dollars by preying on frightened people like fucking parasites. ❤

 

[JessFR]

I'm not saying it's less deadly than the flu. Someone else said that.

What I'm saying is the media looks at the data, picks the highest estimate possible because scaring people gets clicks and makes revenue, and they run with it.

The people who trust the MSM are fed these exaggerations and fabrications of doom and gloom because they trust things if they're on TV. This is ignorant, yes, but that doesn't absolve the MSM of blame for exploiting that ignorance to generate fear just so they can make more money.

If the media actually reported the truth with no sensationalism they'd sell fewer papers, get fewer clicks, and make less money. Can't have that now can we?

Well I can't attest to what the abstract concept of "the mainstream media" said. I can say that I personally don't recall seeing any news articles about the 2-4% mortality rate that didn't also explain that that was based on the current numbers that were likely inaccurate, and didn't include remarks that in time they'd likely drop.

So I certainly don't feel mislead in that regard, but perhaps I'm not getting my news from the same sources.

You know, I believe there is a bad virus out there that does kill people but I cannot shake the feeling in my very DNA and soul that tells me something else is going on here.

We need to figure out what that “something else” is and quickly.

Our freedoms and Liberty are being taken away day by day.
We will soon be in a position where there is no return.

You need to figure it out perhaps. Personally I feel nothing. It all seems exactly what I'd have expected to me.

But then I might be somewhat biased, I've thought it was likely I'd live to see something like this happen for a long time. Since around h5n1 when I first learned that pandemics are natural events and we were bound to experience another one on human timescales.

Also I've read about the kinda stuff societies had to do for Spanish flu, so a lot of the actions happening today don't feel unprecedented to me. It's certainly not 1918 anymore and this isn't an influenza virus. There are differences, but not so much that it all doesn't feel pretty expected IMO.

 

[novaveritas]

0.66% mortality is NOT less than the flu. It's substantially higher.

God this thread is a cesspool of bullshit.

indeed Jess Indeed

 

[novaveritas]

In certain circumstances? Wtf is that supposed to mean.

like in vulnerable populations, don't be facetious Jess, you know full fucking well what that means. it means it is not a general case, the statement has limited universality and is accurate within certain bounds, Stop playing games it is very tiresome.
I want to hear different opinions and perspectives, you have one I value but you are not communicating it very well to me, which is a shame because I think you may be able to contribute ideas that I otherwise have to find elsewhere.

so truce? I will not blow you up if you don't antagonize me. That scenaro looks like a non-zero sum outcome.

 

[Wilson Wilson]

Well I can't attest to what the abstract concept of "the mainstream media" said. I can say that I personally don't recall seeing any news articles about the 2-4% mortality rate that didn't also explain that that was based on the current numbers that were likely inaccurate, and didn't include remarks that in time they'd likely drop.

So I certainly don't feel mislead in that regard, but perhaps I'm not getting my news from the same sources.

Five seconds on DDG...

The latest coronavirus death rate is 3.4% — higher than earlier figures. Older patients face the highest risk.

Experts have predicted that the fatality rate of the disease will decrease as the number of confirmed cases continues to rise.

www.businessinsider.com

China's coronavirus could have same death rate as Spanish flu outbreak in the UK

The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 was “the deadliest in history”, infecting around 500m worldwide and killing 20-to-50m.

uk.style.yahoo.com

15 MILLION people 'will die in best-case coronavirus scenario'

In the most disastrous scenario, the death toll could reach a staggering 68million including hundreds of thousands of deaths in Britain and the United States (file photo).

www.dailymail.co.uk

Chilling coronavirus chart shows UK death rate is outpacing every country including Italy

THE coronavirus death rate in the UK is outstripping every other country suffering from the pandemic at the same stage, including Italy, where patients died at a rate of one every two minutes over the weekend.

www.express.co.uk

 

[JessFR]

Five seconds on DDG...

The latest coronavirus death rate is 3.4% — higher than earlier figures. Older patients face the highest risk.

Experts have predicted that the fatality rate of the disease will decrease as the number of confirmed cases continues to rise.

www.businessinsider.com

China's coronavirus could have same death rate as Spanish flu outbreak in the UK

The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 was “the deadliest in history”, infecting around 500m worldwide and killing 20-to-50m.

uk.style.yahoo.com

15 MILLION people 'will die in best-case coronavirus scenario'

In the most disastrous scenario, the death toll could reach a staggering 68million including hundreds of thousands of deaths in Britain and the United States (file photo).

www.dailymail.co.uk

Chilling coronavirus chart shows UK death rate is outpacing every country including Italy

THE coronavirus death rate in the UK is outstripping every other country suffering from the pandemic at the same stage, including Italy, where patients died at a rate of one every two minutes over the weekend.

www.express.co.uk

Right yeah, I don't read news from sensationalist tabloids.

Although strictly speaking your first link includes the kinda disclaimer I've seen.

"Though the latest numbers mark an increase in mortality, experts have predicted that the fatality rate of COVID-19 could decrease as the number of confirmed cases rises"

That's the kinda remark I was talking about that I've seen in lots of places.

But not all mainstream media is all the worst of sensationalist crap.

 

[atara]

Correct it's higher than the seasonal flu which is 0.1%

The death rate from the seasonal flu is 0.02%, not 0.1%.

the death rate that is easy to measure is the CFR however the CFR is increased by catching and throwing in died with not of COVD-19.

Nobody is inflating COVID death counts by including patients who died of other causes. Autopsies are more reliable than diagnoses in almost every situation.

More people will die from the damage being done to the economy than the virus itself. Calling it now.

Meanwhile, in real life, mortality rates decrease during recessions.

How the next recession could save lives

Death rates have dropped during past economic downturns, even as many health trends have worsened. Researchers are scrambling to decipher lessons before the next big recession.

www.nature.com

We've crippled the world economy based on MODELS.

This has gotta be the funniest bullshit I've seen in a while. The entire world economy is run on models. Ever heard of the Black-Scholes equation? If "models" weren't reliable things would have fallen apart a long, long time ago.

there is no chance that the flavor of COVID-19 circulating in Italy is 5 times more lethal than the virus circulating in Germany. ZERO chance, so you have to think harder what these numbers mean.

The simple explanation that Germany has tested a higher fraction of infected than Italy has, of course, must be ignored, because it wouldn't allow you to feel like you're smarter than the experts.

 

[Wilson Wilson]

Right yeah, I don't read news from sensationalist tabloids.

Although strictly speaking your first link includes the kinda disclaimer I've seen.

"Though the latest numbers mark an increase in mortality, experts have predicted that the fatality rate of COVID-19 could decrease as the number of confirmed cases rises"

That's the kinda remark I was talking about that I've seen in lots of places.

But not all mainstream media is all the worst of sensationalist crap.

It's about what gets the most hits though as I've been saying.

If you look you can find more sensible coverage - although the FT's graphs were exaggerated to all hell too and they're certainly not a tabloid - but what gets more hits? Outrage porn.

The Daily Mail is the most popular newspaper in the UK and the Mail Online got about 200 million monthly unique hits as of 2014, which I'm sure is only higher now, and is very popular worldwide including the US and Australia.

It's also notorious for fake news and scaremongering. But it is still ridiculously popular.

It proves my point, that the coverage which gets the most attention is sensationalist at best and downright false at worst. That's what people read and share. So it's what the biggest media outlets in the world largely pump out.

Appealing to the lowest common denominator is a good business strategy. Tabloids do this very well.

 

[JessFR]

It's about what gets the most hits though as I've been saying.

If you look you can find more sensible coverage - although the FT's graphs were exaggerated to all hell too and they're certainly not a tabloid - but what gets more hits? Outrage porn.

The Daily Mail is the most popular newspaper in the UK and the Mail Online got about 200 million monthly unique hits as of 2014, which I'm sure is only higher now, and is very popular worldwide including the US and Australia.

It's also notorious for fake news and scaremongering. But it is still ridiculously popular.

It proves my point, that the coverage which gets the most attention is sensationalist at best and downright false at worst. That's what people read and share. So it's what the biggest media outlets in the world largely pump out.

Appealing to the lowest common denominator is a good business strategy. Tabloids do this very well.

Well yeah that's probably true. But if you deliberately look for shit news, you'll get shit news. The existence of shit news doesn't mean though that all news coverage is shit. Or at least not equally shit.

The point in making is that there obviously is media, and personally I'd argue it's part of the mainstream, that isn't nearly as exclusively sensationalist crap.

 

[Branggen]

I have to go in to the pharmacy for daily pickup and have to wait like 10-15 mins even if their isn't a line because they are so slow these days. If I catch this shit itll definitely be from there. I think they are gonna relax carry rules soon but for now its getting a bit dumb especially when the only reason I cant get full carries is supposedly because of the street value of the meds. Anyone else want some extra carries right now?

 

[atara]

Well I can't attest to what the abstract concept of "the mainstream media" said. I can say that I personally don't recall seeing any news articles about the 2-4% mortality rate that didn't also explain that that was based on the current numbers that were likely inaccurate, and didn't include remarks that in time they'd likely drop.

Five seconds on DDG...

The latest coronavirus death rate is 3.4% — higher than earlier figures. Older patients face the highest risk.

Experts have predicted that the fatality rate of the disease will decrease as the number of confirmed cases continues to rise.

www.businessinsider.com

Should I be surprised that you didn't read the articles you posted? From your link:

"The death rate is likely to change further as more cases are confirmed, though experts predict that the percentage of deaths will decrease in the longer term since milder cases of COVID-19 are probably going undiagnosed. "

Roughly the level of intellectual honesty I've learned to expect from conspiracy theorists.

 

[Wilson Wilson]

The death rate from the seasonal flu is 0.02%, not 0.1%.

Eh?

"The USA’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) does publish estimates of the number of flu cases annually, including estimates for the number of hospitalisations and the number of deaths. The number of cases has ranged from nine million to 45 million a year, and the number of deaths ranged from 12,000 to 61,000. These figures suggest that over the past decade in the United States, the percentage of flu cases that resulted in hospitalisation has consistently been between 1% and 2%, and the percentage of cases that resulted in death has been between 0.1% and 0.2%."

How does the new coronavirus compare to influenza? - Full Fact

The World Health Organisation says the Covid-19 coronavirus spreads slower than the flu, but appears to have a higher mortality rate.

fullfact.org

Where did you get 0.02% from? Because the CDC says 0.1-0.2% for seasonal flu.

Meanwhile, in real life, mortality rates decrease during recessions.

Tell you what, I will bet you 1 BTC that during this lockdown/quarantine, where everyone is locked in their homes, many in small apartments and on very limited money, either unemployed or unsure if they will have a job next month, unable to go outside, stuck with screaming kids and their partners on top of the financial stress and being unable to work, and the stress from the fear of the pandemic itself, that there will be an increase in suicides, domestic violence, alcohol abuse, mental illness, and all sorts of other horrible things that are caused not by the virus but purely by the government's reaction to the virus crippling the economy, personal freedom, and forcing people out of work.

In fact the stats show that domestic violence is up already.

You can't really compare this situation to any normal recession because it's nothing like a normal recession.

Should I be surprised that you didn't read the articles you posted? From your link:

"The death rate is likely to change further as more cases are confirmed, though experts predict that the percentage of deaths will decrease in the longer term since milder cases of COVID-19 are probably going undiagnosed. "

Roughly the level of intellectual honesty I've learned to expect from conspiracy theorists.

One article has a disclaimer buried inside it. Well done. What about the rest?

And where is the conspiracy? Do you really think it's a conspiracy to simply point out that the media makes more money from scary headlines? Seems more like common sense, but you do you.

Well yeah that's probably true. But if you deliberately look for shit news, you'll get shit news. The existence of shit news doesn't mean though that all news coverage is shit. Or at least not equally shit.

The point in making is that there obviously is media, and personally I'd argue it's part of the mainstream, that isn't nearly as exclusively sensationalist crap.

My point is simply that sensationalist crap is what the majority of people read or watch. One need only look at the popularity of the Daily Mail and Fox News for evidence.

 

[novaveritas]

The death rate from the seasonal flu is 0.02%, not 0.1%.

Nobody is inflating COVID death counts by including patients who died of other causes. Autopsies are more reliable than diagnoses in almost every situation.

Bullshit, ILI concurrent covid, cardio concurrent covid = COD COVID 19 paths are doing this right now in the real world. Wake the fuck up.

Meanwhile, in real life, mortality rates decrease during recessions.

This has gotta be the funniest bullshit I've seen in a while. The entire world economy is run on models. Ever heard of the Black-Scholes equation? If "models" weren't reliable things would have fallen apart a long, long time ago.

you do know the story of LTCM, an model based company...
You do know what the creators of Black-Scholes said about the model and what it should NOT be used for...
I used to pull apart financial models for a living.
So to call out the very model that killed LTCM as a good example of modelling in the real world shows a large degree of ignorance on your part.
You are a model believer, that is fine it is what you are, that is your religion. I am an experimentalist that is what my credo is. I am quite content to ignore your models or use them in the way they should be used as guidance for testable hypotheses. You may want to sit in your academic ivory tower with a model that says experimentalists with an experimantal bulldozer can't knock your tower over, they can and they will. Likewise in finance people who understand the limitations of models take positions based on that knowledge, and the put their money where their mouths are. They can and do win more often than they should.
Unlike your field forelock tugging and worshipping the annointed experts is not required, making money is. the results speak for themselves.

The real world is not a model, when the real world diverges from the model it is not because the real world is wrong OK end of discussion.

I don't want to have remind you yet again over about the true definition of science and what makes it different to religion.

The simple explanation that Germany has tested a higher fraction of infected than Italy has, of course, must be ignored, because it wouldn't allow you to feel like you're smarter than the experts.

OK way to totally miss the point. which is the raw numbers are meaningless without knowing what those numbers mean.

 

[Captain.Heroin]

0.66% mortality is NOT less than the flu. It's substantially higher.

God this thread is a cesspool of bullshit.

Could you post %ages?

If 0.66% of the world dies of COVID-19 (and I don't know this # is accurate) it would be more people than have ever died of HIV.

 

[Shady's Fox]

You know, I believe there is a bad virus out there that does kill people but I cannot shake the feeling in my very DNA and soul that tells me something else is going on here.

We need to figure out what that “something else” is and quickly.

Our freedoms and Liberty are being taken away day by day.
We will soon be in a position where there is no return.

We already there. This something else is this virus. This is just a distraction. Circus with no clowns.

 

[Blowmonkey]

Boris not doing so good.

Boris Johnson admitted to hospital with coronavirus

Move follows rumours that prime minister’s condition had been worsening

www.theguardian.com

 

[TheLoveBandit]

I don't know how much international news the rest of y'all read on a regular basis, but I tend to go through papers/sites from a whole load of countries around the world. And the lead stories in pretty much all of them are roughly the same: national leaders failing to respond quickly enough, a lack of PPE for health workers and face masks for the populace, a terrifying shortage of desperately needed ventilators, and massive contention and discontent about which scientific advice to follow or the validity/wisdom/folly of temporarily suspending national economies for the sake of social distancing, self-isolation and "flattening the curve".

Which is not to excuse any of the stupidity and shortsightedness that's being uncovered along the way, but does suggest that the issue is perhaps a little more systemic and fundamental to broader international economic and political structures than the behaviour individual personalities within it (much though I may loathe to admit it myself...)

Great point, and one too many are losing sight of these days. Regardless of political views, or for Americans the need to finger point, the reality is gov'ts around the world have proven unprepared for this regardless of what social or economic model they operate by. Worldwide failure in this case, equal opportunity f'kup.