I appreciate ANT's charts, but the are too short, or too long in timespan for what I was seeking. Additionally, they show the U-3 (unemployment definition used in reporting labor statisctics) which is what CH complains is not accounting for underemployment numbers. Some work, which means not being as lazy as I prefer, but from the
Bureau of Labor Statistics for the US Gov't the following is available (note, these are not seasonally adjusted, I believe):
U-1, persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force;
U-2, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force;
U-3, total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate);
U-4, total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers;
U-5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers; and
U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.
The site can provide numbers for 2003-2017, which still isn't a big enough set for what I was after. My intent was to look at U-3 and (for underemployment I suppose I'll use) U-6. I wanted to know if U-3 and the delta to U-6 grew-shrank at the same rate since the 70's, and how it looks recently. I say 'delta' because U6 includes U3 but by definition is also picking up a lot of the underemployed - the group we're talking about. I still hold that presidents (despite their bluster and bravado) have little to no effect on unemployment (as evidenced in ANT's charts). But I can still try to look at this for the years provided.
I'll need some tutoring from CFC on better table and chart presentations in vb but for now, bear with me, please.
Year / U3 / U6 / delta / President
2003 / 6 / 10.1 / 4.1 / Bush
2004 / 5.5 / 9.6 / 4.1 / Bush
2005 / 5.1 / 8.9 / 3.8 / Bush
2006 / 4.6 / 8.2 / 3.6 / Bush
2007 / 4.6 / 8.3 / 3.7 / Bush
2008 / 5.8 / 10.5 / 4.7 / Obama
2009 / 9.3 / 16.2 / 6.9 / Obama
2010 / 9.6 / 16.7 / 7.1 / Obama
2011 / 8.9 / 15.9 / 7 / Obama
2012 / 8.1 / 14.7 / 6.6 / Obama
2013 / 7.4 / 13.8 / 6.4 / Obama
2014 / 6.2 / 12 / 5.8 / Obama
2015 / 5.3 / 10.4 / 5.1 / Obama
2016 / 4.9 / 9.6 / 4.7 / Trump
2017 / 4.4 / 8.5 / 4.1 / Trump
Like ANT's statistics, there's a general downward trend on unemployment (and underemployment), influenced by a jillion factors beyond a president. Whatever influence a president has, I do not hold it against Obama that his spiked so damn high - he had no control over the recession occurring, and despite what either side of the political spectrum says, little control if any over the recovery, IMO. What the numbers bear out is that the underemployment CH points to as getting worse...is, in fact, getting better.
If anyone feels my interpretation of U6-U3 is an incorrect representation of the underemployed, I would appreciate better data to work from.
If mods want to split some of the last few replies into an 'unemployment statistics' thread, that's cool too...unless someone can actually show how presidents DO influence unemployment, and specifically how Trump is effecting it.
![:\](https://bluelight.org/xf/BL_Images/Orig_Emoji/wrygrin.gif "wry grin :\")
