Droppersneck
Bluelighter
An objective comparison of Ohio State 2012/2013 to recent undefeated mid-majors
First of all, let me preface this by saying that I think Ohio State has a very good football team and program. I'm going to objectively compare Ohio State's 2012 season (and possible 2013 season) with recent undefeated mid-majors... namely Utah 2004, Boise State 2006, Utah 2008, and Boise State 2009. After the analysis, I'll write a few thoughts and welcome other people's thoughts on the subject
I'll be using the final 2012 AP rankings for Ohio State's 2012/2013 seasons just because it's the best data we have to go on. I'll be using final AP rankings for the mid-major seasons.
Let's dive in, shall we?
First, let's just be honest about Ohio State's 2012 season; They did not beat (or lose to) a top 20 opponent. They did not beat a top 25 team on the road or at a neutral site. They had a few close calls against some pretty mediocre competition, but also soundly beat some decent teams. After the dust settled, here were the best wins for Ohio State
#24 Michigan (26-21)
#25 Nebraska (63-38)
They also defeated Wisconsin on the road, 21-14 (in overtime). Though Wisconsin finished the year 8-6, I feel like they were probably a little bit better than their record indicated so I feel this win is worth mentioning. Ohio State's not so hot moments have been well-documented here... their escape against Purdue, their defense surrendering 49 points to Indiana (though they were never really in serious danger of losing this game).
Basically, what we have is a team that seems to be a little bit better than teams ranked in the 20-40 range; They didn't wow anybody, but despite their close calls, they didn't lose any games. It also needs to be noted that if they had played in the Big 10 championship game, they would have faced Nebraska again for the conference championship. Even if we assume Ohio State wins this hypothetical game, I don't think they really would have legitimized their season much more than it already was seeing as how they already handled Nebraska with relative ease. Also, in many cases these undefeated mid-majors did not get their marquee wins until bowl season, something Ohio State was not elgible for last year, and something that happens after the national championship game selection is made.
So the question becomes... would have and should have Ohio State gone to the BCS national title game over a 1 loss SEC champion? Well, we have seen in the past mid-majors go undefeated and been passed over (in some cases, not even really that close) to teams with losses. Let's examine these teams one at a time.
Utah, 2004
12-0 (11-0 regular season, plus a 35-7 win over Pittsburgh in the Fiesta bowl).
2004
was the year where USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, and Utah all finished
undefeated. There was never any serious thought given to Utah getting a
shot in the 1v2 game, nor should there have been. They did not face a
team ranked in the top 25 all season until they defeated #25 Pittsburgh
in the Fiesta bowl. The one thing Utah did have going for them? They won
all of their games convincingly. Most were blowouts, and their closest
game was a 14 point win. However, their level of competition was pretty
dreadful. As unimpressive as Ohio State's schedule was, this was easily a
notch or two below with no real meat.
Boise State, 2006
13-0 (12-0 regular season, plus a memorable 42-41 win over #11 Oklahoma in the Fiesta bowl)
An
interesting case. Their best win during the regular season was a 36-3
clubbing of Hawaii who finished 26th in the AP and 24th in USA Today.
Apart from that, not a whole lot here, but they did defeat #11 Oklahoma
on a neutral field which was a better win than anything Ohio State could
offer. Even still, Boise State finished the season ranked 5th, behind
not only 1-loss national champion Florida, but also Ohio State, and 2
loss teams LSU and USC. When you get right down to it, I'd say Boise
State's 2006 season was comparable to Ohio State's 2012 season. Though
on a week to week basis, Ohio State faced better competition, Boise
State's 2 best wins equal or surpass Ohio State's.
Utah, 2008
13-0 (12-0 regular season, plus a solid 31-17 victory over SEC runner-up, #6 Alabama in the Sugar bowl)
Interestingly
enough, it seems as if this Utah team was more accomplished than Ohio
State and it really isn't that close. Besides defeating #6 Alabama, they
also snagged three other quality wins over #7 TCU, #18 Oregon State and
#25 BYU. Even still, this team was passed over in favor of two one-loss
teams, Florida and Oklahoma. Perhaps Utah has a legitimate gripe for
not getting a chance to play for the championship, perhaps they don't.
However, it seems clear that Utah in 2008 definitely had a better resume
than 2012 Ohio State or 2013 Ohio State (if the final rankings look as
they did after the 2012 season, which obviously isn't a great way to
look at it, but for now it's all the data we really have to go on).
Boise State, 2009
14-0 (13-0 regular season, plus a 17-10 win over #6 TCU in the Fiesta bowl)
Aside
from their Fiesta bowl win, Boise State opened the season with a pretty
convincing win over #11 Oregon 19-8. Other than these two wins, which
again, are better than anything Ohio State offered us in 2012, there
isn't a whole lot here. Very weak conference schedule, though they did
largely dominate their opponents. This Boise State team finished ranked
#4. They really never had a chance at reaching the title game because
both Alabama and Texas finished the season undefeated with a laundry
list of impressive wins. However, it should be noted that this team
still finish ranked behind 13-1 Florida. Florida was the defending
national champions, lost a pretty decisive game to Alabama in the SEC
Championship game, and then rebounded by crushing #8 Cincinnati in the
Sugar bowl.
So what can we really derive from all of this?
Well, to be honest, I was surprised at some of the quality wins these
mid-major teams put together. In most cases, they had better wins at the
top than Ohio State managed, though their week to week competition was
probably not as good as the the middle of the Big 10. Yet none of these
teams played for the national championship. In 2004 and 2009, with so
many other quality undefeateds, it's not hard to see why they'd get
passed over. But in 2006 and 2008, it is interesting that these teams
put together wins that equaled or surpassed Ohio State yet still finish
ranked behind teams with losses... even multiple losses.
So where
does that really leave Ohio State? I'm not sure. While I tend to think
if they finish undefeated and there aren't more than 2 undefeated teams,
they will make the game. But will they really be deserving? What would
make Ohio State a more deserving team than say 2006 Boise State who
finished behind multiple teams with multiple losses? I don't really have
an answer for that. And if there happen to be 3 undefeateds, will they
really have any argument at all (again, this assumes the Big 10 doesn't
kill it in the nonconference and thus end up with several top 15 teams)
I know this is a lot to read, but I hope some of you will read it and
give feedback. My point? There is definitely precedent for 1-loss teams
from stronger conferences to make the title game over teams with resumes
comparable to what Ohio State had in 2012 or may have in 2013. I look
forward to hearing thoughts from everyone.
First of all, let me preface this by saying that I think Ohio State has a very good football team and program. I'm going to objectively compare Ohio State's 2012 season (and possible 2013 season) with recent undefeated mid-majors... namely Utah 2004, Boise State 2006, Utah 2008, and Boise State 2009. After the analysis, I'll write a few thoughts and welcome other people's thoughts on the subject
I'll be using the final 2012 AP rankings for Ohio State's 2012/2013 seasons just because it's the best data we have to go on. I'll be using final AP rankings for the mid-major seasons.
Let's dive in, shall we?
First, let's just be honest about Ohio State's 2012 season; They did not beat (or lose to) a top 20 opponent. They did not beat a top 25 team on the road or at a neutral site. They had a few close calls against some pretty mediocre competition, but also soundly beat some decent teams. After the dust settled, here were the best wins for Ohio State
#24 Michigan (26-21)
#25 Nebraska (63-38)
They also defeated Wisconsin on the road, 21-14 (in overtime). Though Wisconsin finished the year 8-6, I feel like they were probably a little bit better than their record indicated so I feel this win is worth mentioning. Ohio State's not so hot moments have been well-documented here... their escape against Purdue, their defense surrendering 49 points to Indiana (though they were never really in serious danger of losing this game).
Basically, what we have is a team that seems to be a little bit better than teams ranked in the 20-40 range; They didn't wow anybody, but despite their close calls, they didn't lose any games. It also needs to be noted that if they had played in the Big 10 championship game, they would have faced Nebraska again for the conference championship. Even if we assume Ohio State wins this hypothetical game, I don't think they really would have legitimized their season much more than it already was seeing as how they already handled Nebraska with relative ease. Also, in many cases these undefeated mid-majors did not get their marquee wins until bowl season, something Ohio State was not elgible for last year, and something that happens after the national championship game selection is made.
So the question becomes... would have and should have Ohio State gone to the BCS national title game over a 1 loss SEC champion? Well, we have seen in the past mid-majors go undefeated and been passed over (in some cases, not even really that close) to teams with losses. Let's examine these teams one at a time.
Utah, 2004
12-0 (11-0 regular season, plus a 35-7 win over Pittsburgh in the Fiesta bowl).
2004
was the year where USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, and Utah all finished
undefeated. There was never any serious thought given to Utah getting a
shot in the 1v2 game, nor should there have been. They did not face a
team ranked in the top 25 all season until they defeated #25 Pittsburgh
in the Fiesta bowl. The one thing Utah did have going for them? They won
all of their games convincingly. Most were blowouts, and their closest
game was a 14 point win. However, their level of competition was pretty
dreadful. As unimpressive as Ohio State's schedule was, this was easily a
notch or two below with no real meat.
Boise State, 2006
13-0 (12-0 regular season, plus a memorable 42-41 win over #11 Oklahoma in the Fiesta bowl)
An
interesting case. Their best win during the regular season was a 36-3
clubbing of Hawaii who finished 26th in the AP and 24th in USA Today.
Apart from that, not a whole lot here, but they did defeat #11 Oklahoma
on a neutral field which was a better win than anything Ohio State could
offer. Even still, Boise State finished the season ranked 5th, behind
not only 1-loss national champion Florida, but also Ohio State, and 2
loss teams LSU and USC. When you get right down to it, I'd say Boise
State's 2006 season was comparable to Ohio State's 2012 season. Though
on a week to week basis, Ohio State faced better competition, Boise
State's 2 best wins equal or surpass Ohio State's.
Utah, 2008
13-0 (12-0 regular season, plus a solid 31-17 victory over SEC runner-up, #6 Alabama in the Sugar bowl)
Interestingly
enough, it seems as if this Utah team was more accomplished than Ohio
State and it really isn't that close. Besides defeating #6 Alabama, they
also snagged three other quality wins over #7 TCU, #18 Oregon State and
#25 BYU. Even still, this team was passed over in favor of two one-loss
teams, Florida and Oklahoma. Perhaps Utah has a legitimate gripe for
not getting a chance to play for the championship, perhaps they don't.
However, it seems clear that Utah in 2008 definitely had a better resume
than 2012 Ohio State or 2013 Ohio State (if the final rankings look as
they did after the 2012 season, which obviously isn't a great way to
look at it, but for now it's all the data we really have to go on).
Boise State, 2009
14-0 (13-0 regular season, plus a 17-10 win over #6 TCU in the Fiesta bowl)
Aside
from their Fiesta bowl win, Boise State opened the season with a pretty
convincing win over #11 Oregon 19-8. Other than these two wins, which
again, are better than anything Ohio State offered us in 2012, there
isn't a whole lot here. Very weak conference schedule, though they did
largely dominate their opponents. This Boise State team finished ranked
#4. They really never had a chance at reaching the title game because
both Alabama and Texas finished the season undefeated with a laundry
list of impressive wins. However, it should be noted that this team
still finish ranked behind 13-1 Florida. Florida was the defending
national champions, lost a pretty decisive game to Alabama in the SEC
Championship game, and then rebounded by crushing #8 Cincinnati in the
Sugar bowl.
So what can we really derive from all of this?
Well, to be honest, I was surprised at some of the quality wins these
mid-major teams put together. In most cases, they had better wins at the
top than Ohio State managed, though their week to week competition was
probably not as good as the the middle of the Big 10. Yet none of these
teams played for the national championship. In 2004 and 2009, with so
many other quality undefeateds, it's not hard to see why they'd get
passed over. But in 2006 and 2008, it is interesting that these teams
put together wins that equaled or surpassed Ohio State yet still finish
ranked behind teams with losses... even multiple losses.
So where
does that really leave Ohio State? I'm not sure. While I tend to think
if they finish undefeated and there aren't more than 2 undefeated teams,
they will make the game. But will they really be deserving? What would
make Ohio State a more deserving team than say 2006 Boise State who
finished behind multiple teams with multiple losses? I don't really have
an answer for that. And if there happen to be 3 undefeateds, will they
really have any argument at all (again, this assumes the Big 10 doesn't
kill it in the nonconference and thus end up with several top 15 teams)
I know this is a lot to read, but I hope some of you will read it and
give feedback. My point? There is definitely precedent for 1-loss teams
from stronger conferences to make the title game over teams with resumes
comparable to what Ohio State had in 2012 or may have in 2013. I look
forward to hearing thoughts from everyone.
