1bRAVEheart1
Bluelighter
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- Oct 22, 2003
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Is he going to start telling us to buy Australian Made so the profit stays in Australia?
bRAVEheart
NEWS - Record $200 million bust!
- Thread starter sputnik
- Start date
Is he going to start telling us to buy Australian Made so the profit stays in Australia?
bRAVEheart
my innerself
Bluelighter
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- May 9, 2004
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- 1,865
holy shit thats alot of pills, it brings a tear to my eye thinking of what is going to happen to all of them. At least the media didn't get up and say that there was PMA in them like they usually do.
fcuking_in_heaven
Bluelighter
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- Oct 19, 2004
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Has anyone noticed a shortage in their areas yet or do you think this is only the smallest of dents. The tassie scene seems to be as booming as ever. No shortages at all if you know the right people.
fcuk in heaven
fcuk in heaven
lost_boi
Bluelighter
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- Apr 26, 2003
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- 973
che_melbourne said:
Brisbane has a state of the art container x-ray facility up and running, has been for over a year now. AFAIK Perth also has one (apart from Sydney of course).
Also note this did not happen at the docks but at the airport as the consignment was air freight.
For more information have a look at this link media release from Australian customs
And for pictures of the pingers all those eggs
thats pics of the ice they found in candles the other week..
heres some high res pics of the oven and drugs
http://www.afp.gov.au/afp/page/Media/2004/MR141104_Photos.htm
damn they make me horny, lol
heres some high res pics of the oven and drugs
http://www.afp.gov.au/afp/page/Media/2004/MR141104_Photos.htm
damn they make me horny, lol
mongman
Bluelighter
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- Mar 17, 2003
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- 867
Did anyone notice they wording of the police officer in the news report?
Key word being disrupted, clearly they only caught a few unfortunate pawns in this one and have little change of tracking down the realy players. Just wait for the next shipement I say.......
For all we know the manafacture is financhialy responsible for losses until the goods are safely at thier destination. In that case its no realy major dent for the import.
(makes sense to as its cheap as hell to make if a large plant in producing it continuously....)
Key word being disrupted, clearly they only caught a few unfortunate pawns in this one and have little change of tracking down the realy players. Just wait for the next shipement I say.......
For all we know the manafacture is financhialy responsible for losses until the goods are safely at thier destination. In that case its no realy major dent for the import.
(makes sense to as its cheap as hell to make if a large plant in producing it continuously....)
MyDietMainlyAmines
Bluelighter
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2002
- Messages
- 21
The size of this bust has really surprised me. 4 million is a lot of pills. Like many I was really upset to hear about this, it cant be good to lose that many pills at once. It got me thinking.
According to the ABS website there are approximately 8.6 million people in Aust between ages 15-44, presumably the main age of E users. A 2002 government report says 3% of Australians over 14 had had E in the previous 12 months to the report (up from 2% in 2000). It's probably higher again now.
Lets say 1% in this age group take E EVERY WEEKEND. And lets say they take 2 each. Thats still only 172000 pills. At that rate 4000000 represents 23 weeks supply FOR THE WHOLE COUNTRY.
I find it hard to beleive there are shipments like this coming in all the time, or E's would be a lot cheaper and more readily available. I hope it is the proverbial drop in the ocean, but the total market in Australia cant be that large, unless I am grossly underestimating it.
I really hope this bust doesn't cause everyone to have a really boring summer holiday/party season. Or I hope that they find there way on to the streets anyway as many have said. Or I hope someone brings in a whole lot more to replace the lost ones.
What do others think, do my numbers stack up?
Sources:
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/1f51406dceebac14ca256ec7007b5b4e!OpenDocument
http://www.aihw.gov.au/publications/phe/sdua00/sdua00.pdf
http://www.aihw.gov.au/publications/index.cfm/title/8390
According to the ABS website there are approximately 8.6 million people in Aust between ages 15-44, presumably the main age of E users. A 2002 government report says 3% of Australians over 14 had had E in the previous 12 months to the report (up from 2% in 2000). It's probably higher again now.
Lets say 1% in this age group take E EVERY WEEKEND. And lets say they take 2 each. Thats still only 172000 pills. At that rate 4000000 represents 23 weeks supply FOR THE WHOLE COUNTRY.
I find it hard to beleive there are shipments like this coming in all the time, or E's would be a lot cheaper and more readily available. I hope it is the proverbial drop in the ocean, but the total market in Australia cant be that large, unless I am grossly underestimating it.
I really hope this bust doesn't cause everyone to have a really boring summer holiday/party season. Or I hope that they find there way on to the streets anyway as many have said. Or I hope someone brings in a whole lot more to replace the lost ones.
What do others think, do my numbers stack up?
Sources:
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/1f51406dceebac14ca256ec7007b5b4e!OpenDocument
http://www.aihw.gov.au/publications/phe/sdua00/sdua00.pdf
http://www.aihw.gov.au/publications/index.cfm/title/8390
MyDietMainlyAmines: i completely agree with you, and I think your estimates are sound.
When people stop and do the math, busts this size are very significant. The proportion of Australia's sub-20 million population that are actually taking MDMA regularly (e.g. once a month) is extremely small. Thus pills equalling one for every 5 Australians, young and old, is extensive.
If they shipped many of those sized busts continuously supply would begin to greatly outstrip demand. No major DD are going to want to "sit" on millions of pills. Yet if the quanitity is not needed, that is what they are going to have to do. Saying that if a bust is lost another would probably be sent on its way to compensate. For the manufacturers, the actual cost to produce and ship 4 million pills (rather than the amount of money they are potentially worth on the street) would be minor. (to them of course)
When people stop and do the math, busts this size are very significant. The proportion of Australia's sub-20 million population that are actually taking MDMA regularly (e.g. once a month) is extremely small. Thus pills equalling one for every 5 Australians, young and old, is extensive.
If they shipped many of those sized busts continuously supply would begin to greatly outstrip demand. No major DD are going to want to "sit" on millions of pills. Yet if the quanitity is not needed, that is what they are going to have to do. Saying that if a bust is lost another would probably be sent on its way to compensate. For the manufacturers, the actual cost to produce and ship 4 million pills (rather than the amount of money they are potentially worth on the street) would be minor. (to them of course)
when i 1st heard about this bust on the news i thought it was quite a considerable haul and that it may cause a LOT of damage to the market, but after doing the maths ive changed my mind.
some ppl consume 1 pill per week, others 5-10. with say.. 1/20th of the population consuming ecstacy regularly there would be around 2million pills consumed weekly.
3million pills plus enough powder to produce 1-1.5million better than average pills. lets say 5million pills total to be generous.
5million pills / 2million consumed weekly = probably 1-2 weeks supply.. 1month at the very maximum
i know many many ppl who would consume 4-10 pills a week themselves so im inclined to believe that this bust would be 1-2 week supply at very best and that there is PLENTY more where they came from
some ppl consume 1 pill per week, others 5-10. with say.. 1/20th of the population consuming ecstacy regularly there would be around 2million pills consumed weekly.
3million pills plus enough powder to produce 1-1.5million better than average pills. lets say 5million pills total to be generous.
5million pills / 2million consumed weekly = probably 1-2 weeks supply.. 1month at the very maximum
i know many many ppl who would consume 4-10 pills a week themselves so im inclined to believe that this bust would be 1-2 week supply at very best and that there is PLENTY more where they came from
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IWoody
Bluelighter
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- May 14, 2002
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http://www.afp.gov.au/afp/page/Media/2004/MR141104_Photos.htm cool Site!
I must say that is a @#$%^ing poor attempt of an oven realy!!! wheres the door?? element?? its a back yard made smugling device! people have to be a little more sneaky than this next times I thinks.
I must say that is a @#$%^ing poor attempt of an oven realy!!! wheres the door?? element?? its a back yard made smugling device! people have to be a little more sneaky than this next times I thinks.
LittleBoyLost
Bluelighter
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- Oct 28, 2004
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- 191
Do you know much about industrial ovens?
Maybe it's been partly dismantled.
Maybe it's been partly dismantled.
Winterborn
Bluelighter
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- Jul 18, 2003
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MyDietMainlyAmines: Bingo. I think you were slightly harsh with some of yourimates but a seize like this is definitely huge. I would say 10-15 weeks.
Weather there is demand here or not is irrelevant. If your a distributer and you have the choice between a country all the fucking way down south with nazi effective ports and customs- or some other random country where your goods will still be wanted, where you gonna choose?
Btw, I have seen 2 different types of pills which look strangely similar to those in the pic, both which have come out recently.. wonder if this wasnt the only shipment?
Weather there is demand here or not is irrelevant. If your a distributer and you have the choice between a country all the fucking way down south with nazi effective ports and customs- or some other random country where your goods will still be wanted, where you gonna choose?
Btw, I have seen 2 different types of pills which look strangely similar to those in the pic, both which have come out recently.. wonder if this wasnt the only shipment?
yepskie
2 things, my mate works for customs in melbourne, and their x ray machine is def worken, hes told me about it a few times.
and i work with industrial sized ovens all the time, and thats a real oven just stripped of a few parts, but theirs en easy step they could have taken for it to not kum up on the xray, but i wont mention what...
later all and party hard!
2 things, my mate works for customs in melbourne, and their x ray machine is def worken, hes told me about it a few times.
and i work with industrial sized ovens all the time, and thats a real oven just stripped of a few parts, but theirs en easy step they could have taken for it to not kum up on the xray, but i wont mention what...
later all and party hard!
This is completely wrong. There is no way 5% of AUSTRALIA"S ENTIRE population consume MDMA regularly. Remember the 19 million people in this country includes many young children, pensioners and middle aged family men and women. Essentially zero percent of these people use MDMA.
Even the main age group of 16-30 are not using in excessive proportions. Probably 25-30% have tried the drug (and I think that is a generous estimate), and a much reduced proportion actually use regularly.
how many ppl do u know that have taken a survey asking if they take ecstacy? maybe the estimate was a lil off but i also underestimated how much each person consumes. i know more than enough ppl that consume the share for 10 ppl every week. also the average age of ppl starting to take ecstacy regularly is dropping dramatically. when i was 18 virtually none of my mates from school used it often or had even tried it for that matter. now im seeing 16 year olds everywhere on the shit. regardless of wat u read from these government reports the amount of ppl munching pills is far far greater than what is stated. no way u can deny that..
also id like to add... i guess u could call it a 3month supply dent but only from the sources directly below in this chain. but im also sure they will find something else to replace it very soon.
i know that this bust hasnt affected my ability to get on in the slightest.
also id like to add... i guess u could call it a 3month supply dent but only from the sources directly below in this chain. but im also sure they will find something else to replace it very soon.
i know that this bust hasnt affected my ability to get on in the slightest.
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I agree it is no point in trying to estimate the exact figures, even though that data is out there and we are just too lazy to find it.
My point was the age group 16-28 could not make up more than 20% (i.e. 1 in 5) of the entire population - it is probably less because we have an older population than most countries.
Therefore 1 in 5 taking MDMA means you are asking us to find that >90% of all persons in that age group take MDMA regularly and that is just not possible.
I agree with your point about multiple pills though - most i know buy 3-4 for a sitting. Certainly never less than 2.
My point was the age group 16-28 could not make up more than 20% (i.e. 1 in 5) of the entire population - it is probably less because we have an older population than most countries.
Therefore 1 in 5 taking MDMA means you are asking us to find that >90% of all persons in that age group take MDMA regularly and that is just not possible.
I agree with your point about multiple pills though - most i know buy 3-4 for a sitting. Certainly never less than 2.
events only
Bluelighter
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- Nov 19, 2004
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- 3
It has been estimated that approximately 100,000 ecstacy pills are consumed in Sydney every weekend. Therefore, that equates to 5.2 million pills in Sydney per year on weekends. This figure is only slightly larger than the size of the seizure. Therefore, it is to be expected that such a massive seizure will have an impact in the near future. It is likely (all other things remaining constant) the average cost of a pill will increase, whilst the average quality will decline. Not likely that this will be felt until next year though. Economics people.
At the moment, I don't have the source from where I read this, but will post it as soon as I find the reference material again...
HOWEVER.... With such a huge demand, such a high potential for profit, and limited risk (ie. Yes, they may have seized the drugs, but the manufacturer has certainly not been busted), it is very likely that we will have many more pills being made explicitly for the purpose of being sent to Australia...
Smile
At the moment, I don't have the source from where I read this, but will post it as soon as I find the reference material again...
HOWEVER.... With such a huge demand, such a high potential for profit, and limited risk (ie. Yes, they may have seized the drugs, but the manufacturer has certainly not been busted), it is very likely that we will have many more pills being made explicitly for the purpose of being sent to Australia...
Smile