EU Referendum Discussion: Well That Worked Out Well Didn't It

[Josh]

Yeah, big up SHM, very well written post.

I feel very sad and more than a little afraid to be part of a country where so many people seem to think leaving the EU is a good choice. Finding it very hard to see anything but thinly veiled racism in the Brexit campaign, when when all evidence for legal and economic arguments are so strongly stacked in remain's favour. Posted this elsewhere earlier, hopefully it sums up what I feel is most important.

One of the biggest debates in the EU referendum seems to be immigration. Some of the biggest concerns that people have are that these people are taking our homes, jobs, burdening our health services etc.

But if you build more homes (something which is needed in the UK anyway), then you generate jobs. Not only in the building of the homes, but also the infrastructure that goes with it (schools, shops, hospitals etc).

I guess some people's concerns are that we end up with communities who don't associate with our culture and way of life, isolated from out own. But perhaps if we engaged with other cultures a little more, we might actually find that they are more than accommodating of our ways and that our lives might even be enriched a little by some of theirs.

It seems to me that we don't need to be controlling our borders as much as we need to be considering our planning laws.

Edit: also agree Ceres, I fear it could get ugly on the streets even if common sense prevails.

 

[BigG]

What annoys me most is all these fuckwits who voted leave without even the remotest understanding of what they're voting for other than "all them foreigners stealing our jobs innit"

I sent my postal vote off to remain weeks ago and if anyone wants to vote out based on what they believe to be sound arguments then that's up to them but the thought that people could be setting the country up for such world changing consequences without even the remotest idea of what they are voting for just scares the shit out of me....

We'll see by the weekend I guess.....

On another note I may be having a hiatus from BL for a while cos I'm struggling with personal stuff but I'll still be popping my head in from time to time....

Take care everyone

 

[Vurtual]

To those of you voting 'leave' tomorrow I hope you have a conscience and it haunts you for the rest of your life. To vote with Farage and co tomorrow is your biggest chance ever to vote for the closest thing to fascism you'll see in your lifetime. I started off this debate in idealistic fashion, saying how the EU prevents any kind of socialist policies. This still holds true. But there is no alternative. To vote leave is to vote for a massive step backwards as well as the most dangerous step forwards this country will have seen in any of our lifetimes.

You want a destroyed NHS? Vote leave. You want trade deals dependent on coming a poor second to Khazakstan and paying a fortune to China for plastic? Vote leave. You want science and technology funding destroyed? Vote leave. You want recession and more cuts than ever before? Vote leave. And in the name of what? Taking our country back? Wtf? Who has it at the moment then? You think the immigrants have our country? They are the 1% now are they? Or are they just the ones to blame while you're mired at the bottom of the greasy pole covered in shit?

We are as far from ideal as can possibly be. Tomorrow you have the choice of fairly unfettered capitalism or idiotic little englander politics versed in the disgusting rhetoric of new-fascism. The difference with the old fascism, should you be that way inclined, is that at least Hitler had gained economic power by....guess what? Annexing virtually the whole of Europe. You are looking at that in reverse. Turning your back on Europe, on trade, and risking a domino effect that splits the continent, fractures the continent, into a million pieces that has the potential to make the Balkans conflict look like a fairground ride.

I am a revolutionary socialist. Capitalism is my hatred. But this is not the way to destroy it. It's no longer funny. All the way I've backed remain (literally) to win. Now, it looks like there is a serious chance of insanity winning the day. Don't be part of that madness. Be ashamed if you are. Look at the people you are voting with. People who make others like Cameron and Goldman Sachs look positively fair. Remember, this paragraph began with "I am a revolutionary socialist". And here I am ending it with a plea to vote with Cameron. Think about that. Seriously, think about that.

Your future is in your hands. Do not vote Brexit.

Spot on in that bold bit - and good arguments generally. I've been thinking that it shouldn't matter who else is for brexit cos we could always vote them out/rebel - however i'm starting to worry that in the event of a 60%+ brexit vote, the bbc/media establishment would take it upon themselves to push the national dialogue further to the right in some convenient 'representation' of the public (in their own image) - this is the perfect foil (they probably imagine) to any potential future trouble offered by the left (though it would only make us stronger). But then i worry this is a really good version of project fear messing with me.

'Left and the EU' (A left argument for brexit from counterpunch via offguardian).

'I'm voting remain because i love my mum' (Craig murray's argument for remain.)

 

[Josh]

Take it easy G, hope you get back on track soon.

I'm interested to know what will actually happen on the event of a leave majority. This article has some interesting points:

http://www.standard.co.uk/business/...ay-remain-even-if-we-vote-leave-a3272621.html

And even if it does happen, this video seems to suggest it could take ten years to put into action.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=290892024587971&id=100010015277486

Don't think many of the Brexit massive have thought about this and think we'll be out my Friday lunchtime.

 

[Shambles]

It really is incredibly galling that the rabid right have hijacked the out side of the debate so completely. I was genuinely undecided at the start of all this but after all has been said and done there is just no way I can vote for the Farridges, Borises & Goves of this world. If there was a realistic prospect of a left of centre outcome to vote for by opting out that would be another matter but there simply isn't at this point. As such my only choice is to go for the lesser of two evils and hope that the fact the country is clearly so divided on the matter can galvanise some kind of meaningful change in the system.

In principle I have no problem with an EU-like concept - frankly I'd be all in favour of a federal Europe, indeed a federal Earth - but one based on sound, ethical and progressive underpinnings rather than the old boy's club the current setup far more closely resembles. There are immense problems with the EU but the possibility of a fractured and fractious crumbling with no foreward planning whatsoever (and if the Leave campaign have demonstrated anything for sure (aside from mild-moderate casual racism) it's the completely disingenuous vacuousness of the people we are supposed to put our faith in).

Outside of the EU we are a very small fish in a shark pool. Okay that small Britfish may be a piranha you wouldn't want to meet down a dark meander but still but a tasty morsel for the Americas, Chinas and Russias of this world. There's good reason so many other nations have chipped in to have a quiet word - I don't believe for one moment it's for our own benefit. At least as part of the EU we are part of a significant number of voters (or 'consumers' for the more unbridled capitalists amongst us) which provides a sliver of hope for having some kind of say in how we are governed. Admittedly this would likely mean having to take a far more active role in EU elections (anybody here know their Euro MP?) but that's perhaps not unreasonable. Given how little input or interest the vast majority of us have had in all things European since VE Day it's hardly a surprise so many feel disenfranchised and adrift from our Continental cousins.

As ever, Vurtual & SHM are far better at putting my political ponderings into words than I am so I'd simply add that I am very much in agreement. As big a job as it is, and as little appetite for doing it as I have, I simply cannot be the turkey that votes for Xmas. The utterly vapid sloganeering "vision" of a post-EU Britain presented by the Leave campaign is such an unmitigated NO that it has to be an unenthusiastic, but essential, 'In' for me.

 

[ponch]

Even if the referendum ends up with a leave majority it has to pass through Parliament I believe.

 

[Vurtual]

An interesting comment pinched from 'Uzbek in the UK' on Craig Murray's blog (my bold):

Uzbek in the UK
June 22, 2016 at 13:08

Here two mighty forces are at stake. Old tested by blood nationalism and new and (now) ever developing globalism.

Ever since the beginning of the Common Europe project seeds of future globalisation were planted. Tested on the region that was torn by wars during millennials but also had so much in common (religion, culture, desire to overcome distractions of WWII) seeds produced good result. But as every successfully planted seeds the project become ever expanding. If you think that EU borders are limited by Baltic states in the East and Greece/Cyprus in the South you are wrong. Think about all the depended territories which France, Netherlands, UK, Spain, Portugal have. Today EU could truly be compared to the Hapsburg’s Empire, the empire on which the sun never sets.

Those who think that by voting Remain they do good to those (less well off) Europeans they are wrong. Look what has (and is) happened in the East. In Bulgaria, Poland and Baltic states most of the economically active and the brightest people have moves West in search of better life. Many of those with degree doing manual and low skilled jobs for better pay than they would have had at home. Yes, part of their wages go to support their relatives at home and boost economy, and yes millions of Westerner go East each year for stag dues and cheep booze fuelling tourist and prostitution industries there. But EU also drained East of human resources and with little exception shut down (or at least greatly reduced) industrial output those countries had before. Factories in Poland and Baltic states could not (for quite good reasons) hold competition against factories in Germany and Netherlands. The biggest winners of EU were (are) those richest of the members. It opened up large market for German factories and so called financial markets for London to exploit. It also provided cheap (comparing to local) labour force and further fuelled economic boom in Western countries. Some of it (like small breadcrumbs) reached East. But in comparison West was the true winner of EU expansion.

Those who think voting Leave would improve lives of ordinary people in the UK are wrong. The wages will not go up simple because they cannot. Start paying good old Brits double the wages which have been paid to those (bloodsucking) Polls would destroy any enterprise. Simply because the goods and services will become double the price tag and thus uncompetitive. Would you simply buy strawberries picked by old good Brits for £4 or would you buy one picked by Polls in Netherlands for £2? Even with increased tariff the latter would still cost cheaper. If the tariffs are increased to the protectionist level then simply there will be another problem. Good old inflation will kick in destroying everything Leave crowd was hoping for. Very soon good old Brits would realise that even that doubled wage they are paid is not enough to buy strawberries and pay for the services which have costed half of that when (bloodsucking) Polls were allowed to stay and work. To add to that the market will now be much smaller (with no tariff free trade with EU). Prices of good and services produced by old good Brits for export will still be decided by fat cats in Brussels but with Brits mouth wide shut. Houses will not become cheaper for the same reason. The wages for good old Brits will need to be doubled meaning every new build house or every refurbishment project will cost double of what it was when (bloodsucking) Polls were allowed to stay and work.

So, think carefully about all cons and pros and vote for what you think is better for you and (if you are long term thinker) for what if better for your children!

 

[consumer]

Vote for Pedro

 

[Ceres]

^ hah.

 

[Wilson Wilson]

the people who would receive the biggest boost from brexit would be the most raw capitalists around

So that's why major investment banks and the Eton educated Tory elite support staying in the EU? Because the EU doesn't serve their interests? Come off it. The EU is run by corrupt self-interested corporations and politicians for their own benefit, it provides absolutely nothing to the average citizen.

And before anyone pulls out the whole "the EU gave us all our worker's rights" bullshit again, that is a lie plain and simple. Not only has the UK had worker's rights before it ever joined the EU, but our regulations are actually above the EU's. For example - the EU mandates 14 weeks maternity pay while UK law provides us with 52 weeks. UK law gives us the right to 5.6 weeks holiday (assuming you work a five day week) while EU law only provides 4 weeks. And so on...

If you vote to remain, you vote in favour of unelected bureaucrats who exist only to serve the interests of the elite. This is not Nigel Farage's position, this is Jeremy Corbyn's position.

 

[oxynorm]

Well I voted Leave today.

 

[consumer]

If that crazy Boris dude is saying leave i would be voting stay. He reminds me of Donald Trump

 

[Shambles]

Even scarier than Trump. All the vapid populism only highly intelligent and expert at hiding it. A true blue wolf in an especially bedraggled sheep's clothing

 

[Itsgoneundertheboa]

So that's why major investment banks and the Eton educated Tory elite support staying in the EU? Because the EU doesn't serve their interests? Come off it. The EU is run by corrupt self-interested corporations and politicians for their own benefit, it provides absolutely nothing to the average citizen.

And before anyone pulls out the whole "the EU gave us all our worker's rights" bullshit again, that is a lie plain and simple. Not only has the UK had worker's rights before it ever joined the EU, but our regulations are actually above the EU's. For example - the EU mandates 14 weeks maternity pay while UK law provides us with 52 weeks. UK law gives us the right to 5.6 weeks holiday (assuming you work a five day week) while EU law only provides 4 weeks. And so on...

If you vote to remain, you vote in favour of unelected bureaucrats who exist only to serve the interests of the elite. This is not Nigel Farage's position, this is Jeremy Corbyn's position.

Yep agree. I didn't reply to SHM on speaking tosh. However as someone who has employed across EU the UK employee rights and tribunal system is by far the most protective of the worker in Europe bar France. Germany for example has a "discussion" process which allow the employer to call in an employee and "discuss" their future. Generally if you face such a meeting it is game over. UK we have a multi stage process of arbitration and right to appeals etc. The only other country with even more employee right is France - hence the recent denonstrations as the French govt tries to change these to become more in line with the rest of Europe.

Tinfoil hat time. Why was June chosen as the best time? Usually because it's the point at which the currency and stock markets are the lowest. Now take a look at the market and check out year to year. If by tomorrow it's remain the £ will go ballistic and shares like wise. If you check back I said from outset this has little to do with any issue except opportunity for those with the money. I also stated the result which I stand firm on Remain. Yes the leaves are raving loonies, no there will never be any real change. consumers voting options are absolutely on the money.

As also stated I choose my own view not that of racism or nutters. All I read in "economist" outlooks is prediction. Economist have the best job in the world. If they state something and it comes true they are good at the job. If they state something and it doesn't come true they can always blame other factors. Economists = modern day medicine man. Thousands of them never saw the biggest collapse of the market in our lifetime. Only a very few did. They weren't the ones who were regularly published because they did not fit the media line and wishes.

 

[BigG]

Yep agree. I didn't reply to SHM on speaking tosh. However as someone who has employed across EU the UK employee rights and tribunal system is by far the most protective of the worker in Europe bar France. Germany for example has a "discussion" process which allow the employer to call in an employee and "discuss" their future. Generally if you face such a meeting it is game over. UK we have a multi stage process of arbitration and right to appeals etc. The only other country with even more employee right is France - hence the recent denonstrations as the French govt tries to change these to become more in line with the rest of Europe.

Tinfoil hat time. Why was June chosen as the best time? Usually because it's the point at which the currency and stock markets are the lowest. Now take a look at the market and check out year to year. If by tomorrow it's remain the £ will go ballistic and shares like wise. If you check back I said from outset this has little to do with any issue except opportunity for those with the money. I also stated the result which I stand firm on Remain. Yes the leaves are raving loonies, no there will never be any real change. consumers voting options are absolutely on the money.

As also stated I choose my own view not that of racism or nutters. All I read in "economist" outlooks is prediction. Economist have the best job in the world. If they state something and it comes true they are good at the job. If they state something and it doesn't come true they can always blame other factors. Economists = modern day medicine man. Thousands of them never saw the biggest collapse of the market in our lifetime. Only a very few did. They weren't the ones who were regularly published because they did not fit the media line and wishes.

One of the most telling phrases I learned during my time studying economics at Uni was "CaterIs Paribus" meaning "All other things being equal". Kind of a proviso added to the end of all economic arguments to state that this will only be true if nothing else changes.

Like an instant get out clause for predicting something within the economy that is likely to not turn out as planned due to the number of uncontrollable factors from other sources changing the outcome.

Economics IMHO is one of the most blatantly "bollocksified" subjects on the planet and studying it only served the purpose for me of confirming that I wanted to do something totally different with my life.

No wonder it was a BA degree and not a BSc as classifying economics as a science would be the ultimate piss take....

I'm still very much in the remain camp though as the consequences of Brexit are just impossible to quantify at present and it's not a risk I'd want to take...

Its not as if we can suddenly say that we want to come back in a year or so time if it all goes pair shaped.....

 

[Itsgoneundertheboa]

One of the most telling phrases I learned during my time studying economics at Uni was "CaterIs Paribus" meaning "All other things being equal". Kind of a proviso added to the end of all economic arguments to state that this will only be true if nothing else changes.

Like an instant get out clause for predicting something within the economy that is likely to not turn out as planned due to the number of uncontrollable factors from other sources changing the outcome.

Economics IMHO is one of the most blatantly "bollocksified" subjects on the planet and studying it only served the purpose for me of confirming that I wanted to do something totally different with my life.

No wonder it was a BA degree and not a BSc as classifying economics as a science would be the ultimate piss take....

I'm still very much in the remain camp though as the consequences of Brexit are just impossible to quantify at present and it's not a risk I'd want to take...

Its not as if we can suddenly say that we want to come back in a year or so time if it all goes pair shaped.....

You would enjoy reading Freakonomics G. One of the most insightful books regarding what we believe to be the truth as to what is actually the truth. No tinfoil hat bollocks just a very intelligent way of looking at things.

 

[BigG]

You would enjoy reading Freakonomics G. One of the most insightful books regarding what we believe to be the truth as to what is actually the truth. No tinfoil hat bollocks just a very intelligent way of looking at things.

Thanks I'll have a look at that one.....

Its such a bullshit subject at times though. The underlying problem with it for me is that all economic arguments depend on the assumption that everyone will act rationally and in accordance with the information that they are privy to at that moment in time...

Unfortunately people don't always act like that in the real world and trying to predict the nuances of human behaviour and incorporate it into an economic theory has proven almost impossible.

Its just a subject of most likely guesses really......

 

[consumer]

Not to mention most share trading especially the rapid fire buy and sell stuff is all algorithm based these days from what i read. Economies can be manipulated by those with the resources to do it. Its not my chosen field but it does interest me. Luckily for me i am in a position in life where most of these decisions have little effect on me. I own my home (in a country where its becoming almost impossible for the average worker to get into the market let alone live somewhere nice ) , have a career that is not going to dissapear...machines can do many things but they cant replace nurses and have reasonable cash reserves and a solid line of credit. My only worries are if our health care system gets privatised and the cost of university going up due to fee deregulation as i intend to return to study. Otherwise i am kind of insulated from the policies of either major party here. We go to the polls in two weeks and i think the conservative side will win. I would hate to be 25 years younger. The opportunities i had really no longer exist. The cost of living is insane. House prices are insane. Rent is insane. Education is getting more expensive. Australia is going to the shit. I reckon i have ten years left here then Thailand here i come.

I have no idea what leaving the EU will do for the UK but somehow i cant see it having a positive outcome. But i am just an outsider looking in.

 

[ScotchMist]

Thought I was going to have to make a hasty exit hair half cut from the barbers for revealing my remain vote. Every scissor and conversation halted to catch a glimpse of the treasonous customer...!

Certainly made me worried for the outcome listening to them all...

 

[BecomingJulie]

I can also recommend Freakonomics.