OSU: Don't be surprised if they win out and sneak into the NC game! I'm sure whoever they play would be all cocky and think they'd win, but OSU's D if one of the top 3 units in the country. I know I know it's unlikely that enough teams ahead of OSU would lose, but if they do, it's very likely.
No need to talk shit, I'm just saying if you look at everyone's upcoming games it's very plausible.
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If I can get past the "I know it's unlikely ... but ... it's very likely" statement, I'll entertain your assertion. Let's try to look at it fairly:
#1 UF plays....#22 SCAR (soon to be unranked after this weekend with ALA), and a buncha cheese that shouldn't bother them, then most likely ALA
#2 ALA plays ... #10 LSU, and a buncha cheese (maybe, maybe AUB upsets them, but doubtful), then UF
So even if one of those teams lose along the way, the other is #1, and they matchup at the end of the season giving the one-loss team a chance to beat #1 and get back into the NC or the #1 team just wins the conference and continues into the NC. Can we agree that the SEC Champ is
most likely to be in the NC? It may not be fair (and I'm inclined to agree), but it's how things are set up to play out. So boom, there goes one slot for the NC.
Of the others, we have:
#3 TX plays #20OU this weekend, still plays #16 OSU and #17 KAN, and would have a shot at a Big12 CG against a top 25 team (KAN or NEB). Losing one game (other than the conference CG), would put them against enough ranked teams to get them back into the #2 slot, IMO. I think a one-loss TX >> VT. But, assuming they lose 2 games, or fail at their conference championship (damn slim chance)...
#4 VT plays ... a buncha cheese. Even their conference championship will be against a nobody. And while I'm sure they'd love a rematch with ALA, they'd get their asses handed to them again. Seriously, they are riding their wins over ranked teams from earlier (#19, #9) and will play #19 this weekend (and could lose). Even if they win out, they should not be in the title game. So, your story gains a little credibility here perhaps.
#5 BSU plays ... a buncha cheese. They beat #16. They get Idaho at home (ahead them in conference standings right now
). They do have a chance to win out, and the nation will be torn on putting them in the NC - in part because of the non-AQ teams claiming they never get a real shot and this could be it, in part so they can be put in the NC and let the real teams teach them to STFU by stomping on their dicks. I say that, but I recall an OU team that did no such thing. So, I'll call this a push, maybe they stay ahead of your tOSU, maybe they don't. Let's assume they fall behind somehow (computer rankings?).
#6 USCw has played #8, #24, and face #25 this weekend. They still have #13 OR a little later on. Now, they could stumble somewhere (again), though most likely is against #13....and as much as it would be fun (not) to watch a rematch of USC and tOSU, we're reaching a bit for that to happen. My money says USC gets another loss somewhere, so yeah, tOSU can move up.
#7tOSU has played #3 and lost. They still face #14 PSU and #11 Iowa. I sincerely doubt tOSU can win both those games. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if they lost them both. But until it's played, anything is possible, so let's say they win out.
Hmmm.... I guess you were right, "I know I know it's unlikely that enough teams ahead of OSU would lose, but if they do, it's very likely". And I would agree that if they faced an SEC team, or if both SEC teams stumble and they faced TX that their opponent would be overconfident. There isn't much respect for tOSU amongst the power teams and conferences. But if you're in the NC against BSU or VT, I doubt either would be overconfident. IF BSU isn't shitting their pants in excitement, they'll be very focused and super energized to prove something. VT on the other hand would approach it more like an even matchup, and do their homework to have a solid game taking nothing for granted - no overconfidence there, I think.
IF, and I said IF, tOSU can win out, they should climb over BSU. However, for them to climb over USCw, they'd need USCw to lose...which in turn hurts tOSU...hrm, double edged sword that one. IF FL/ALA/TX somehow fall out, I do believe USCw and tOSU can climb over BSU and VT. I think your only chance is IF USCw wins out as well and you get your rematch. The infinitely small chance that FL/ALA/TX all fall out, and USCw AND tOSU win out does exist. But maaaannnn, that's a long shot.
Still, ya gotta believe, right? I mean, that's the fan's mantra....there is always a chance. Hell, I lived on Ramen noodles and hope for over a decade, and now I'm enjoying the feast
At least you're still able to dine out regularly in classy joints with tOSU as opposed to being people's homecoming cupcake (those were the days, Gator fans... I'll never forget).