I’m calling Aurora Cannabis as a company that will be sold or go into bankruptcy protection this year

[Thomas Davie]

First off, Aurora managed a reverse stock split back in late May. The definition of a reverse stock split is

A reverse stock split is a type of corporate action which consolidates the number of existing shares of stock into fewer, proportionally more valuable, shares. The process involves a company reducing the total number of its outstanding shares in the open market, and often signals a company in distress.

A reverse stock split divides the existing total quantity of shares by a number such as five or ten, which would then be called a 1-for-5 or 1-for-10 reverse split, respectively. A reverse stock split is also known as a stock consolidation, stock merge or share rollback and is the opposite exercise of stock split, where a share is divided (split) into multiple parts.

Here is a look at the performance of Aurora’s stock since May.

On the chart, you can see where the reverse stock split was initiated and you can see how little effect this has had.

Tom

Forgot to add that this was a 1 for 12 split.

 

[TheInvisibleStoner]

With a 25% dump today. Their ER was terrible yesterday. -1.02 EPS from -.34 EPS last quarter from operating slight positive before. They are going down. I don't touch any of those canadian weed tickers. Alll pump and dump anyway. I do watch them. People in canada can grow their own weed. No need to patronize many of these companies, especially during covid.

 

[mtu mwendawazimu]

They broke through the bottom line of resistance.

Doesn't look good just based off of general "technical" analysis.

 

[TheInvisibleStoner]

We should pump tomorrow I think. They have lots of DXY to burn after these past 2 days. Trump is up to something sneaky.

But you gave me a great idea. Short all these companies before next ER. Hexo, and Aphria especially. Zyne too lol.

 

[Thomas Davie]

With a 25% dump today. Their ER was terrible yesterday. -1.02 EPS from -.34 EPS last quarter from operating slight positive before. They are going down. I don't touch any of those canadian weed tickers. Alll pump and dump anyway. I do watch them. People in canada can grow their own weed. No need to patronize many of these companies, especially during covid.

*most* jurisdictions in Canada allow you to grow weed. Not Nunavut territory and not in the province of Manitoba (the shithole where I live and am moving away from next summer).

Aurora’s yearly losses were ~3.6 billion dollars against yearly print/sales of ~170 million. Profits are down quarter to quarter.

The response is a) focus on vapes, b) edibles c) beverages and d) to increase the prices of their premium brands. I bought an 1/8 of LA Confidential from Aurora a year ago. I sound like a broken record because pretty much all I do is complain about the general shitty quality of legal Cdn weed. - this stuff was bone dry, no aroma and went straight towards edibles.

Their pre-rolls come in a plastic package with a foil lid. vapes are generally 0.1-0.3g per (and cost as much as other 0.5 g vape cartridges).

Tom

 

[Thomas Davie]

The following is a link to a CBC article where the plans going forward are to concentrate on their value brands, vapes and edibles. Specifically, the most interesting bit is

Daily Special, Aurora's discount brand, accounted for 62 per cent of consumer revenue from flower in the quarter, compared with 35 per cent in the quarter before, he said.

Meanwhile, he said consumer cannabis extract net revenue decreased by $1.5 million because of a decrease in sales of vape products, which Martin is pinning much of his overhaul on.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/aurora-3-3-billion-loss-1.5735539

The value brands are only available in 1g. 3.5g and 15g quantities in my province (rarely in the 15g quantity) and are still more costly than black market. Their premium brands are underwhelming and significantly more expensive than black market. I don't know where or how they can restructure.

One company, Delta9Biotech has taken to buying returned cannabis from our provincial wholesalers (that's the way it works here in my province - producers sell to the wholesaler/distributor and from there tp the stores). Stores have been returning product to the provincial wholesaler when it just sits on the shelf for 1/2 year or more. Normally this unsold products goes back to the producer and is destroyed). D9 is buying large amounts of returned Cannabis and selling to the public for a deep discount.

Tom

 

[TheInvisibleStoner]

Told you we would rip today. (well going up). They have been building up the dxy these past days and now gonna burn it back up. They dxy is key right now.