• LAVA Moderator: Shinji Ikari

the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

@Electrum1 you see this shit?


Weaponizing the market as a tool of resistence. I'm not sure how this reads via the sentiment 'capitalism subsumes all critiques' but it's damned funny. Seems like these folks have decided that if he can exploit the market to become immensely wealthy, others can use the market to fight back at him.

Too bad the markets are so deregulated otherwise there may have been some limiting factors that prevented this from happening - but that would have also limited most of congress's private wealth, most of Wallstreetbetts success, most of BTC's value, and all of DJT's accumulated net worth.

What a time to be alive.
 
@Electrum1 you see this shit?


It's hilarious. Get as many of them to lose 100% of their emotional "investment". It still won''t get them to even think about learning why some companies have certain valuations

Just look at @tryptakid's post above. They literally don't understand investing money or valuing businesses, no matter how much education they have
 
It's hilarious. Get as many of them to lose 100% of their emotional "investment". It still won''t get them to even think about learning why some companies have certain valuations

Just look at @tryptakid's post above. They literally don't understand investing money or valuing businesses, no matter how much education they have
I am no expert on stocks, valuations, and whether what their doing is correct or incorrect. All I can see is a lot of people who are pissed off trying to fight back through whatever they think will hurt musk. Is it right/good/fair? I don't know. Will it work? No idea, you might no better than me. I know that Warren Buffet likened the current stock milieu as a juked up gambling parlor and he certainly has earned a place for his opinion. At the same time, all of this stuff is in flux and maybe the world and the markets have moved on from him. I also know that deregulation has been stated as leaving certain things more vulnerable to problematic patterns that are both potentially profitable, and also very risky - a la the CDF and repackaging of debt into investments that were sold and then caused chaos when they started defaulting. As I understand it from a friend of mine who's more into this stuff, the things that resulted in 08 have returned and are even more volatile and less well regulated than they were then. Perhaps that's a good thing, I honestly have no idea.

I have a few index funds and some diversification into some more and less competitive asset groups, but I get most of information about performance by reading @Electrum1 's posts on a somewhat regular basis. Maybe someday when I have a bit more to invest I'll look at some things beyond retirement accounts, but mostly I just find it interesting.

In the end - emotional thinking can lead to irrational behavior and it's likely that there is a lot of emotional thinking in both our body politic and in people's specific thinking about Elon along with how they're looking to take action. They wanna throw teslas into Boston Harbor!

Madness.
 
Also - there is a nonzero chance that this is some kind of false flag counter grift actually exploiting people's irrational hate. While i have no clue how this is supposing to work and whether it's sound strategy, I would not be shocked if it came out as being something used to expose dissidents and yet again own the libs.
 
Also - there is a nonzero chance that this is some kind of false flag counter grift actually exploiting people's irrational hate. While i have no clue how this is supposing to work and whether it's sound strategy, I would not be shocked if it came out as being something used to expose dissidents and yet again own the libs.
You should definitely be selling these contracts to these people. The premiums on them are almost certainly rising as more and more "protesters" try and sink the musk ship.

If you look through the x replies it's definitely exactly what you state here.
 
You should definitely be selling these contracts to these people. The premiums on them are almost certainly rising as more and more "protesters" try and sink the musk ship.

If you look through the x replies it's definitely exactly what you state here.
It's the kind of thing that I immediately look at and think about how strangely groups of relatively low influence alone can create wealth through intentional virality and also how it is not really sustainable except that it can be very effective for those who curate it well. The pump and dump strat used to be mostly in ethically ambiguous stock brokers, but now crypto, robinhood, reddit, broader regulatory changes have made it easier for random people to do it more broadly with stuff like gamestop (which made him wealthy but I think cost him his job at the time IIRC), yet was technically legal since it was done outside of work hours.

This TSLA thing is just another example of a specific product being sold for reasons that may not be what they seem as it could be attractive to people who want to short a stock, it may actually prevent some from doing just that since it'll almost certainly be obvious to someone with access to investment logs who purchased put options for that day and what their social is, it could actually be a very misguided attempt or even semi-effective attempt at it's stated purpose, or a mix of all of the above. We also may never know as everything can be edited into preferred narratives by so many people inside and outside the power structure.

Post truth is interesting but exhausting.
 
stuff like gamestop (which made him wealthy but I think cost him his job at the time IIRC), yet was technically legal since it was done outside of work hours.
Tbf we just like the stock and it's much more than a pump n dump.

it's about to blow up again btw.

He held through being a billionaire so not really a dump going on there. The stock market is just highly manipulated (particularly that stock).


Do agree with the narrative being easily manipulated and post truth being exhausting though.
 
It's the kind of thing that I immediately look at and think about how strangely groups of relatively low influence alone can create wealth through intentional virality and also how it is not really sustainable except that it can be very effective for those who curate it well. The pump and dump strat used to be mostly in ethically ambiguous stock brokers, but now crypto, robinhood, reddit, broader regulatory changes have made it easier for random people to do it more broadly with stuff like gamestop (which made him wealthy but I think cost him his job at the time IIRC), yet was technically legal since it was done outside of work hours.

This TSLA thing is just another example of a specific product being sold for reasons that may not be what they seem as it could be attractive to people who want to short a stock, it may actually prevent some from doing just that since it'll almost certainly be obvious to someone with access to investment logs who purchased put options for that day and what their social is, it could actually be a very misguided attempt or even semi-effective attempt at it's stated purpose, or a mix of all of the above. We also may never know as everything can be edited into preferred narratives by so many people inside and outside the power structure.

Post truth is interesting but exhausting.
It's not that complicated and you're overthinking it. "Post truth" lol. If I own 1,000 shares then I can write call options or put options against those shares, and people pay a premium that I collect to buy those options hoping they will win. They either win or lose. It's not fraud or a pump and dump or whatever, it's an extremely fair market actually, and I take a lot of risk putting my shares up to even write those options, just as the people buying those options also do
 
It's not that complicated and you're overthinking it. "Post truth" lol. If I own 1,000 shares then I can write call options or put options against those shares, and people pay a premium that I collect to buy those options hoping they will win. They either win or lose. It's not fraud or a pump and dump or whatever, it's an extremely fair market actually, and I take a lot of risk putting my shares up to even write those options, just as the people buying those options also do
You would say that the financial markets are fair and transparent? No asymmetrical information? I think that hedge funds, market makers, and the media heavily influence narratives. I suppose even smart CEOs and boards as well
 
You would say that the financial markets are fair and transparent? No asymmetrical information? I think that hedge funds, market makers, and the media heavily influence narratives. I suppose even smart CEOs and boards as well
I meant people buying tesla put options. If you buy a put option without actually looking at the fundamentals of the company and valuation then that's your problem. You may win but if you lose it wasn't some kind of misrepresentation to scam you or whatever. It wasn't unfair
 
I meant people buying tesla put options. If you buy a put option without actually looking at the fundamentals of the company and valuation then that's your problem.
Agree there.


You may win but if you lose it wasn't some kind of misrepresentation to scam you or whatever. It wasn't unfair
In this case I do think the initial tweet is kind of a misrepresentation albeit a funny one.
 
It's not that complicated and you're overthinking it. "Post truth" lol. If I own 1,000 shares then I can write call options or put options against those shares, and people pay a premium that I collect to buy those options hoping they will win. They either win or lose. It's not fraud or a pump and dump or whatever, it's an extremely fair market actually, and I take a lot of risk putting my shares up to even write those options, just as the people buying those options also do
Post truth more around who benefits, whether it is a wider conspiracy or skill at reading patterns in advance of events, ability/everage to react in beneficial (or harmful) ways. At the same time, so much spin can become with looking at who benefits from how it's being portrayed - something that has become a more effective strategy via social media and algorithmic content etc. Putin is known for funding both sides of the oppositions in Russia, for example, and allowing both enough resources and possible influence as to suggest they stand a chance, yet ultimately they're given enough only to really fight one another and never to contest him, while seeming to permit political dissent, they allow him to manage the dissent and mitigate claims of oppression.

It could be literal activists against Musk/TSLA, grifters, or a new way to try to detect who is someone to deport to El Salvador for being 'agitators' as has been a Truth Social topic this weekend. I also doubt that any follow-up on it will be spun depending on who is discussing and it'll be less likely to reflect reality.

That's what I meant regarding emotional - there are plenty of angry progressive who might see this and think that it's a good way to get at musk and make a buck as activism has become more widespread but also risky. TLSA's stock is taking a hit purely because of emotions and not based on any valuation based on their books - I just read something that indicated that they have billions of dollars in value that they aren't able to account for.
 
Geez man. You are overthinking it, a lot. Just don't trade stocks with that mindset, and buy treasury bonds or whatever other assets that have guaranteed returns
 
I meant people buying tesla put options. If you buy a put option without actually looking at the fundamentals of the company and valuation then that's your problem. You may win but if you lose it wasn't some kind of misrepresentation to scam you or whatever. It wasn't unfair

Agree there.



In this case I do think the initial tweet is kind of a misrepresentation albeit a funny one.
What's I'm not sure about os related to a recent claim made by the Financial Times that suggests that 1.4 billion dollars in value was included in Tesla's recent budget without any explanation while stocks have taken a dive and sales aren't as good as they once were. The additional value came up during a drive to generate new investments, which could be inflating value to mitigate losses by the stock hits that have been occuring due to protests and poor sales.


I've read that it could be due to currency holdings changing values and that having a measurable impact, or some things that may be saving money without being reported in their most recent budget presentation (again, i have little insight into how normal or unusual any of this is even if Musk weren't a part of any of this. He is however known to unusual strategies and given that he's very close to the President, I doubt he'd ever be investigated for something like this - though it does seem like it can factor into whether investing or shorting a fund can be done as accurately when it seems less clear if there's much dividing politics from profit in any direct way. It's like the TRUMP and Melania coin things that came, generated a ton of value for some, at the expense of many who bought them out of emotions. Ethical, legal, and feasible to exploit have become a bit murkier and politicized in ways that make it hard to get to core of this stuff sometimes.

The pump and dump stuff I mentioned above relates to crypto stuff or viral influences that happen through maximizing impact via social networks that is newer and can also approach influencing crypto which doesn't seem to be based on anything but popularity or speculation, but is influenced via P2P channels which can easily be primed to push certain products at times that generate value that can be exploited with a well timed sell. It avoids the risks of insider trading while achieving the same thing, if you're someone who can influence large people on social, at least that's what I've come to understand is the case.
 
Geez man. You are overthinking it, a lot. Just don't trade stocks with that mindset, and buy treasury bonds or whatever other assets that have guaranteed returns
Index funds and low risk stuff. I have never bought any specific stocks and I don't really gamble either. I don't have to understanding at this moment to see more than stuff like this, and so I stick to the thing people recommended in 08 - index funds with a long term mindset. I diversified a small amount, but still in large pools
 
Sir, this is a casino
Aye, and I"m not one of those MIT kids who can count cards. I stick to scratchies I get at xmas. I once went on a 3 hour run during the worst of being a heroin addict, having won about 80$ off of xmas scratch tickets, figuring if I bought 8 tickets I'd have a good chance of at least making that back. I traded them in, was down over half, then fell further into the negative and within another round I was pulling money via my overdraft protection. I think I ended up at like -300 in my account and had no income at the time.

If I do go to casinos, I bring an amount and don't expect to win, instead seeing it as the cost of the experience over the night with friends. Drugs I understand, people I understand, but money and gambling are things that I am pretty conservative with due to years of poor choices when addicted in the 00s.
 
The stock went down with the market going down. Tesla (TSLA) is down 24% in the last month while Reddit (RDDT) is down 30% in the same time. $1.4B is almost nothing for Tesla which is $780B, when reddit is $20B, and Tesla had 50x the revenue as reddit last quarter but is less than 40x the reddit valuation

So, would you short or long reddit here? What trade would you make if forced to make a trade?
 
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