the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

[gordonliddy]

Is what starting to happen?

I'm of the opinion that the commercial real estate market in big cities is due for a correction.

"Work from home" technology has been here since the 90's, but management of that era was certainly not behind it. Then COVID happened, and the Western World basically ran itself remotely for a couple of years. So the work remote thing is no longer a hypothetical, it's a validated business model.

When the correction in commercial real estate happens, how far will it fall? And will it come back in the next two decades. Possibly it won't. My thoughts are that if it falls hard enough, then a lot of those buildings simply get retrofitted for residential.

...but if there are no office buildings any more, won't some amount of the residential demand subside since....you don't need the servant class for the office crowd anymore. You don't need commercial real estate janitors. You don't need the workers who prepare lunches for office people. And so on and so forth.

I'm not predicting a catastrophe, I'm predicting a correction. I'd have to assume that profit taking will take place in tech. Almost certainly in pharma.

Anyways, that's my model. I'm predicting that it's commercial real estate defaults that will trigger commercial to crash. Commercial will lead the crash.

Remember that time that the Francis Key Bridge got smashed, and the market kept right on chugging? Or how about the time that Israel caught a massive terror attack, and the market kept chugging? So what will be the catalyst for the next correction? I'm thinking it will be real estate. Remember sub prime?

This could be offset I think in that the two things that would pump the market a lot would be if Trump wins, or if the Ukraine war ends. But aren't both of those pretty much the same thing? Kind of an inevitability by this point, but we need to wait until November.

This is all a wild theory. I'd LOVE your input.

 

[gordonliddy]

Lol, they did an offering at .84 instead of doing it when they were over $1. Maybe management is dumb

Hey, do you have any opinions on maybe like a decent tech growth fund? I'll admit to having gotten burned on ARKK. Yes, I'm that guy. I'm shopping around for a new one.

 

[-=SS=-]

When the correction in commercial real estate happens, how far will it fall? And will it come back in the next two decades. Possibly it won't. My thoughts are that if it falls hard enough, then a lot of those buildings simply get retrofitted for residential. pods.

Given that reduction of personal autonomy is the name of the game, and increasing micro-management over populations. They don't want average plebs being landlords, for numerous reasons, so they'll just squeeze everyone out of that bubble. Probably by just increasing fees and taxes, because only the super-rich can absorb that (or get around it).

Personally I think there will be some sort of economic crash. Fuck knows where it will start from, but it doesn't really matter, the system is so interconnected globally. It could be China, or a EU country like Italy. They want to roll out CBDC's and the only way that is going to fly is if they fuck the old system into the dirt, leaving people no choice but to switch over unless they want to be left holding worthless currency.

I'd wager it's a certainty. They know they can't fund all the pension obligations, and that robbing people of that who have paid in (and robbing the young of any social contract what so ever) would cause societal upheaval. The only way around that is a controlled burn, and transfer the blame on to "well.. it was difficult times.. a global emergency". Look at Covid and the wealth transfer, the blatant daylight robbery by British MP's chums with contracts.. testing the waters? See if the public is conditioned well enough to accept the ol' "emergency" excuse for why the economy is in the shitter?

 

[thujone]

I don't keep up that much on RE but my understanding is most CRE debt is held by investors as CMBS and the big banks don't have much exposure themselves. Maybe some smaller banks will collapse but that just leads to more consolidation.

My pet theory on the catalyst of the next big crash is that it will be climate change insanity.

 

[gordonliddy]

I don't keep up that much on RE but my understanding is most CRE debt is held by investors as CMBS and the big banks don't have much exposure themselves. Maybe some smaller banks will collapse but that just leads to more consolidation.

My pet theory on the catalyst of the next big crash is that it will be climate change insanity.

Thanks!

 

[gordonliddy]

SGMO went up 18% today while VYGR went down 9%, which could be something, because VYGR in January got a $100M upfront deal with over $1B potential royalties to license their capsid tech, which was the best until SGMO recently put out data and theirs is way better and is now the industry leader

It crosses the BBB way better, which is crucial for any company doing gene editing. Definitely worth following SGMO (I already own it). They're low on cash but didn't do an offering to raise cash during the recent share price spike which is a sign they may have a deal in the works or a partnership for their FABRY trial that would include an upfront cash payment, and should get $220M royalty payment from Pfizer this summer after they release their phase 3 data from a hemophilia trial with Pfizer

Jan VYGR deal

https://ir.voyagertherapeutics.com/news-releases/news-release-details/voyager-therapeutics-enters-capsid-license-agreement-and

March 13th SGMO capsid news

https://investor.sangamo.com/news-releases/news-release-details/sangamo-therapeutics-announces-data-novel-proprietary

Can you tell if this is serious or not?

Cocoa climbs as shortages in Ivory Coast keep market on edge

Cocoa climbed in New York amid persistent concerns over shortages that have roiled the market and driven prices to a record high.

www.businesstimes.com.sg

I'm trying to figure out the commodities market. Is it even worth it? It's mad confusing, Brah.

 

[Electrum1]

Cocoa is above $10K now, more than copper. The harvest areas have been hit hard by droughts but idk if it lasts. Historically these charts should be shorted, but maybe "climate change" is actually effecting cocoa

 

[Electrum1]

Costing more than copper equals unsustainable to me. Copper should cost more than cocoa

 

[thujone]

Thanks!

yw tho im' not sure what good it'll do, nobody seems to really have a good idea about what's coming down the pipe.

it seems like it'll be a rough summer... i'm mostly sheltering in dividend funds now, gotta keep the powder dry

Copper should cost more than cocoa

i think you should consider running that theory by the women first...

 

[-=SS=-]

i think you should consider running that theory by the women first...

If there is pressure on cocoa, now might be a time to invest in vineyards and tinned cat food?

 

[thujone]

If there is pressure on cocoa, now might be a time to invest in vineyards and tinned cat food?

Cats are worthless, I'm always long on wine, and for investment I've been keeping tabs on $PSL because cosmetics seems pretty stable for sales no matter what's going on in the economy

 

[gordonliddy]

yw tho im' not sure what good it'll do, nobody seems to really have a good idea about what's coming down the pipe.

I don't think that this is all that difficult to predict. I think that the pressure point was the Iran attack. If there is no sharp dip by Friday, it means that we're basically not going to get one.
If Chingchongland invades Taiwan, we might get a crash.

"Where you put my fry rice?"

I don't think they will, so I don't think we will. But I possibly wrong about the former.

The one thing that I think could really trigger a crash would be if there is another pandemic lockdown. Careful not to say that too loud, we don't want to give Brandon any ideas.

I mean other than that it should be really smooth sailing. I think oil up to $100 is a decent bet. Probably a slight market dip in October as people are getting nervous about November.

It will shoot up in November with election results until the usual December dip.

I think that we'll see the peak of the next rally when Microsoft hits 47 times earnings. Although fundamentals seem less useful for predicting peak valuations these days than in bygone eras. If we get a natural disaster in like April or May that should be the next crash.

it seems like it'll be a rough summer... i'm mostly sheltering in dividend funds now, gotta keep the powder dry

Good advice! I think MPW just went up like 8% a couple of days ago? Nice!

I'm just not convinced that yield stocks will bounce when the market goes down. Did bonds bounce last time? I don't think they did?

 

[gordonliddy]

Good advice! I think MPW just went up like 8% a couple of days ago?

Notably the very day that I brought up MPW right before market open, it went up 20%. That very day.

You heard it here, on the Gordon Liddy Show!

 

[gordonliddy]

Cats are worthless, I'm always long on wine, and for investment I've been keeping tabs on $PSL because cosmetics seems pretty stable for sales no matter what's going on in the economy

So do you think today was the pullback, or is there more to come?

 

[thujone]

On PSL? I dunno, it's a tough time to be making predictions with inflation in the mix. There's no such thing as a "soft landing". It's rough and going to get rougher.

Governments could help right the ship by imposing austerity yesterday, but instead they're trying to keep throwing more fuel on the fire and desperately trying to make up for it by raising taxes.

Even the most dyed-in-the-wool liberals are going to start to question insane, expensive agendas like Green New Deal when they can't afford a fuckin Big Mac.

That said, I'm expecting the usual equities slump from April - October so I'm just planning to preserve capital for now and wait til August or September to start deploying into growthy shit.

 

[Electrum1]

I mean the S&P500 broke below the 50day yesterday, so that's maybe not a good sign

Look what stock markets did from 10/2007 to 3/2009 the last time they lowered rates from this level. Obviously the market had specific issues like sub-prime mortgages, but still

 

[gordonliddy]

I mean the S&P500 broke below the 50day yesterday, so that's maybe not a good sign

Good point! Crazy. Are you not in a defensive position? I hope you took profits on those successful positions that you had. Thujone and I are both in defensive positions.

Governments could help right the ship by imposing austerity yesterday, but instead they're trying to keep throwing more fuel on the fire and desperately trying to make up for it by raising taxes.

Yup? Thatcher tried but they crucified her for her efforts.

 

[thujone]

14k layoffs announced for Tesla, and layoffs are starting to ripple out into the broader economy... hold onto your hats and cats

 

[Electrum1]

Just saw some gaming company laying people off too

 

[gordonliddy]

Just saw some gaming company laying people off too

14k layoffs announced for Tesla, and layoffs are starting to ripple out into the broader economy... hold onto your hats and cats

Crazy. Yeah was a tense evening, for those of us of the sort to be all in and to let it ride. Meanwhile the Dow is up half a percent this morning.

Nonetheless, I went ahead and picked up an entry position in Global X's RYLD fund.