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  • LAVA Moderator: Mysterier

the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

Branggen said:
I bought my first stocks in december so was some pretty bad timing currently down 1000-2000 depending on the day

These are the stocks Ive got right now, these are two different accounts
XGMvC4j.png
kKm1Vnn.png
Click to expand...
Few days ago ^
Good start to the week, a lot of red turned green
S4tg7xu.jpg
 
thujone said:
@sigmond the long-term price trend is bearish and failed to break through the $10k resistance after taking a few runs at it doesn't seem likely the price will start rising from here. I exited my trade already and will be waiting for $6-7k range to get back in, might take a few months

@Branggen nice dashboard, what broker is that?

@hydroazuanacaine haven't seen you post much lately, has your dad recovered from covid?
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I couldn't resist buying at 8.7 but then I sold at 9.2 for a meager profit. I'm sure you noticed what happened yesterday? If I had held on to my BTC I would have been able to sell at 10.5.

Oh well, I didn't have much. If it drops below 8k I think Ill def scoop some up.
 
The price reached $10.5k but quickly dropped back to $9.5

bitcoinist.com

$100 Million Wiped From BitMEX as Bitcoin Dives $1,500 in Three Minutes | Bitcoinist.com

Just over 12 hours after Bitcoin crossed $10,000 for the first time in weeks, the cryptocurrency dove off a proverbial cliff.
bitcoinist.com bitcoinist.com

If you had held on, would you have known to sell at $10.5 or would you have been holding out for $11k only to be caught off guard by the fall back to $9.5k?

This is why I don't like trading near the top of the range, there's a bunch of risk from volatility and you don't have a lot of slack to make a move before the price could move against you.

There's also some risk in getting in at $8k. If $6k is the bottom of the range then $8k is the middle. What that means is if you get in at $8k, you could potentially get caught up in a major price unwind, be sitting for weeks waiting for the price to bottom out, turn around and climb up past $8k again.

You could still cash out with a profit at $10k, but for a while your money will be tied up in a losing trade waiting for it to turn around. It's stressful and demoralizing being stuck like that, especially in an asset like Bitcoin where you don't even get to benefit from dividends or compounding interest. Time value of money really matters in this market.

On the other hand, if you wait for the bottom of the range, you can jump in and start being profitable soon. That means you can exit the trade earlier than you wanted with low risk if price action sucks. It also means maximizing gains if there is a good run up to the top of the range. And at the top of the range you don't have to worry about intraday volatility anymore because you are still taking a good profit whether you get out at $10k or miss the window and exit at $9.2k.

So yeah there are scalping opportunities short-term but I wouldn't recommend it. I tried day trading FOREX and it was too much stress and too little profit because intraday volatility is so unpredictable that it's practically just gambling.

Swing trading, on the other hand, can be very profitable with low risk and low stress but it takes patience waiting for the right opportunity. Patience is always more profitable than impatience. To quote Buffett, you can't make a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant :)
 
thujone said:
The price reached $10.5k but quickly dropped back to $9.5

bitcoinist.com

$100 Million Wiped From BitMEX as Bitcoin Dives $1,500 in Three Minutes | Bitcoinist.com

Just over 12 hours after Bitcoin crossed $10,000 for the first time in weeks, the cryptocurrency dove off a proverbial cliff.
bitcoinist.com bitcoinist.com

If you had held on, would you have known to sell at $10.5 or would you have been holding out for $11k only to be caught off guard by the fall back to $9.5k?

This is why I don't like trading near the top of the range, there's a bunch of risk from volatility and you don't have a lot of slack to make a move before the price could move against you.

There's also some risk in getting in at $8k. If $6k is the bottom of the range then $8k is the middle. What that means is if you get in at $8k, you could potentially get caught up in a major price unwind, be sitting for weeks waiting for the price to bottom out, turn around and climb up past $8k again.

You could still cash out with a profit at $10k, but for a while your money will be tied up in a losing trade waiting for it to turn around. It's stressful and demoralizing being stuck like that, especially in an asset like Bitcoin where you don't even get to benefit from dividends or compounding interest. Time value of money really matters in this market.

On the other hand, if you wait for the bottom of the range, you can jump in and start being profitable soon. That means you can exit the trade earlier than you wanted with low risk if price action sucks. It also means maximizing gains if there is a good run up to the top of the range. And at the top of the range you don't have to worry about intraday volatility anymore because you are still taking a good profit whether you get out at $10k or miss the window and exit at $9.2k.

So yeah there are scalping opportunities short-term but I wouldn't recommend it. I tried day trading FOREX and it was too much stress and too little profit because intraday volatility is so unpredictable that it's practically just gambling.

Swing trading, on the other hand, can be very profitable with low risk and low stress but it takes patience waiting for the right opportunity. Patience is always more profitable than impatience. To quote Buffett, you can't make a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant :)
Click to expand...

I'm curious what tools or approach you use for your analysis. (It sounds like pure TA?) Bitcoin seems to me like a currency-type play rather than an equity with material/product and growth projections backing it. I'd assume that the automated tools that Wall Street uses make arbitrage trading unlikely.
 
I try and look at fundamentals but yeah most just TA to identify good positions to enter and exit trades. I only look at charts once a week at most, for the most part I poll an API for the spot price so I can keep on eye on it throughout the day. I haven't heard of anyone using serious arbitrage strategies in a while but I guess if someone is doing it profitably now we'll hear about it when it stops being profitable ;)
 
thujone said:
I try and look at fundamentals but yeah most just TA to identify good positions to enter and exit trades. I only look at charts once a week at most, for the most part I poll an API for the spot price so I can keep on eye on it throughout the day. I haven't heard of anyone using serious arbitrage strategies in a while but I guess if someone is doing it profitably now we'll hear about it when it stops being profitable ;)
Click to expand...

I do a little TA as decision support when entering/exiting. I mostly track macro trends and sector movements, then target specific companies to ride. For example, I am starting to think that the PM sector is setting up for action we haven't seen since 1979. And there are patterns of money flow in/out that allows a bit of swing trading between majors/mids/juniors, or even metals when they diverge in action.

Bitcoin is something I use mostly for transactions rather than as a buy-and-hold asset. On the other hand, I have an old litecoin wallet from when mining cost was low and GPU mining was quite realistic. All I need is the passphrase! (Yes, one of those stories.)
 
LOL same, I was into mining Litecoin and Feathercoin briefly, back when I believed Litecoin would play the silver to Bitcoin's gold. Ah well, the free money when BCH forked from Bitcoin made up for that loss.

I'm not up to date on PMs but I think there could be a surge in commodities demand as we come out of this pandemic shutdown and economies start recovering properly. I'm bullish on copper but looking into exposure via ETFs
 
thujone I was ready to deal and when it hit like 10.4 I mentioned to others its probably a good time to sell. I have little confidence that BTC is going much higher than 12k anytime soon.

ofc I could be wrong. I just started researching recently.
 
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I think you made the right call to get out at $9.2k, it's just that you didn't have much margin for profit getting in at $8.7.

At the top of the range you get a lot of weird price action as that's where short sellers start placing bets and that sudden spike to $10.5k may have just been caused by a group of short sellers being forced to close their positions at once and pushing the price up as a result.
 
that's how much your portfolio is down now or did you sell at a loss?
 
Is that relevant to you? I honestly couldn't see my lifestyle changing at all if all the companies on that index went under tomorrow ... except for maybe Exxon and VISA, I'd notice those.
 
very relevant to me. the majority of my money is in index funds. the individual stocks i own are mostly large cap and move with the market. i have no idea what my 401k actually owns (it’s mutual funds probably raping me with fees), but it certainly moves up and down with the market as well.

i don’t have any direct stake in futures or forex.

my lifestyle doesn’t change with the market. retirement is distant and my personal portfolio is fuck around.
 
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What do you guys think is going to happen to the big stocks in the next little while, Im mainly in banks and airlines
 
^trillion dollar question.

dow climbing back up. i didn't read the articles or even headlines why because at this point i'm suspicious they're ad space that rarely account for what's driving financial institutions' algorithms.
 
Now is a good time to invest. When market crashes, smart people invest. You get stocks for dirt cheap.
 
you're thinking of the end of march. who knows what's gonna happen now in the short-term.

smart people invested years and decades ago. unless great depression shit happens, my portfolio stays green because of when i started it. and if you didn't have the opportunity to start it years ago, closer to now the better. you're not gonna time the market. start getting in when you can.
 
Ye, now it's kinda late. But stocks are still kinda downish, there will be and is small boom atleast here in Europe now when everything opened.
It's smart to look at when do the restrictions on businesses go away on each country/area and look what businesses are there and think which ones will have the most positive effects from opening.
Good luck! I study economics myself.
 
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