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  • Current Events & Politics Moderators: deficiT | tryptakid | Foreigner

US Politics the 2025 trump presidency thread

the tariffs on canadian goods address no problem and help absolutely nobody.

if you disagree, please explain which problem they're solving, how they solve it and who they help.

trump just doesn't understand how tariffs work or what he's doing.

alasdair
 
Words matter. The truth matters. If I can't trust what someone says, I don't want to put my balls in their hand. I know that all politicians slant, omit, and spin. However, out and out lying on a regular basis is quite a bit different and is automatically disqualifying to me for someone who has power over my life.
 
Some time ago I noted two seperate executive orders that would likely result in inflation.

I read a lot about the history of tarriffs and they just end up with nother nations responing with their own tarriffs. Thus trade between nations is reduced and prices go up. Even if the US produces steel and aluminium, if someone can import it for less, you just handed US producers the perfect climate to simply increase their prices to match any imports that remain. But it's the people who suffer.

Only the elite gains.

Getting rid of pennies is a much smaller item since coins last for decades. But as coins become less and less available, shops will tend to round up. Officially because they can't make change but unoffiially - because they can charge more. Only significant on small items but having seen a coin disappear and a nation adopt the Euro, both were seen as oppotinitues to increase prices.

Thus the people loses.

I also mentioned that China could really harm the US economy by introducing a tarrif on rare earth metals - stuff used as vital inputs to almost all electonics. Well China HAS done so. They have instituted export controls.

Thus the elite gains.

I suggest that Donald Trump doesn't understand that international trade is vital in wealth creation and if you REELY on an input only one nation can provide, said nation has a lot of power.

Luckily, China appears to be using a gentle touch for the moment. I'm sure every US electronics manufacturer will suddenly be clamouring for a reversal on tarriffs. Becaause without the suppllies from China, prices could go up HUGELY. The US does produce some rare earths, but it's my suspicion is that it isn't competitive, it's intended to ensure the US military isn't relient on Chinese materials.

Thus the elite gaine.

Making rash statement such as stating that the US will seek to cecede several nations will result in international relations suffering and other nations regarding the US as a less-than-friendly power. So they won't buy US-made weapons. Partly because doing so means you have to rely on the price and avilability of replacement parts remaing stable. Partly because you don't want to support a potentially nfriendly power.

Thus the people lose.

There ARE warning signs.
 
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BTW there is a term for this form of government. It is most correctly termed a 'Kakistocracy'.

Yes, I am being facetious but at the same time, I am aware that even a small govrnment is a highly complex system. It requires economists, diplomats, military experts and so on. By custom and practice, elected leaders will expect to have such experts flag political decisions that may produce unexpected outcomes. I see no evidence of Donald Trump using any experts. Being a businessman, Donald Trump appears to think the only useful metric is profit.

The problem is that the flurry of executive orders that appear to demonstrate a lack of understaning won't be forgotten by other nations. Trust has been eroded and will take a long time to return.

Watch carefully to see how China handles trade tarriffs. Their 'nuclear option;' i.e. rare earth metals is a class already subject to export control. It is entirely possible that China will simply reduce supply because the price will go up and so they will still make just as much profit. But expect the price of consumer electronics to rise sharply i.e. core inflation will increase.

Will wages track increased costs? Hard to know, but if a promise was made to lower consumer prices - so far all we see are executive orders that will increase prices. If wages rise, US businesses become less profitable and if goods can no longer be competitive when exported (due to retlitatory tarriffs), they are more likely to shed jobs, not create more.

So the theory that removing illegal immigrants while reducing the size of government will result in there being just as many jobs won't work.

Thus I would expect unemployment figures to rise over the next year.

I don't know WHAT to say when a president openly states an intention to aceder, acquire, invade or otherwise take control of not one, not two but three nation-states. I think it fair to suggest that other nations are likely to increase weapon production rather than buying from the US. Arms exports are a significant part of the economy and you don't buy from someone who behaves like an enemy. Russian arms exports fell off a cliff after invading Ukraine. So China and European nationa may gain sales.
 
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tryptakid said:
Perhaps they'll close the southern border and they'd be right too.

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Legally purchased American guns are largely the reason for cartels being a thing in Mexico, same as gangs purchasing guns from legal states and moving them a short distance over the border into cities with stricter gun laws
 
alasdairm said:
your dodge is noted.

i don't know what you mean. call me crazy but it's possible to stop doing something then start doing it again. it's pretty straightforward.

:)

alasdair
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It's not a dodge. Just trying to get clear on what it is you want because you've been all over the place.
 
Foreigner said:
Why should I share the personal details of my life here, in an argument that I don't really care about?
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Well since in any discussion you participate in, you act like your opinion is the super-rational-only-ever-truth, maybe it would be appropriate to give others some idea where you are coming from and how you came to your conclusions. But to be honest, I have a feeling that you are not at all interested in an actual dialogue and just use this forum purely for self-gratification. Your constant gaslighting of people you disagree with by calling them "deluded" is also a decent clue towards that.

"I know science better, I have experience reading high level papers [lol]"
"what's your scientific work or experience?"
"......."

"I know how government works"
"what's your experience in government?"
"......"

seriously, just stop. It's okay to have an opinion and discuss it, but what you are doing is just getting laughable.
 
alasdairm said:
my request has been simple, and crystal clear, from the start.

you made a claim - "Most people don't agree that he did an sig heil" - and said this was supported by "polls".

i'd like to see the polls please.

alasdair
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Hitchen's Razor applies - 'That which is asserted without evidence can safely be dismissed without evidence.'

The burden of proof lies upon the person asserting a statement as true. There is no burden on others to prove a statement to be false.

I should add that a poll is not proof, it's just opinions. Worse still, depending where a poll is published and how the question was worded, it could lie anywhere along a spectrum:

biased against<--neutral-->biased towards.

But why do I have to keep repeating the fact that Mussolini was the originator of the modern Fascist salute (saluto romano) in 1919 with it becoming the standard fascist salute by 1923. Hitler merely copied the fascist salute in 1933. All Nazis are fascists but not all fascists are Nazis. Neither are based on the Roman salute since it's not known what form of salute the Romans actually used. But if people have forgotten, The Roman Empire was an oligarchy that decended into a dictatorship - so asserting it was a Roman salute doesn't really make things any better.

I feel that at best it was an equivocal gesture. People were free to read it as they wished. That may well have been calculated.

What I find telling is that Elon Musk has very carefully refrained from simply saying something along the lines of 'I had an on-the-spot idea of saluting the audience but realize in retrospect that the gesture might have been misconstued.' Read that again - it's still weasel words but would likely appease the media.

Why? Why not do that one simple thing? Becuase it BENEFITS him not to.

Some possible reasons:

Because he IS a fascist (signalling true political position/political gain)
Because it bugs some people (antisocoal personality/trolling)
Because he is incapable of admitting to his mistakes (narccism)
Because it drives traffic through his faiing social media platform (corrupt practice?)
Because fascists in the USA are a voting demographic and WILL believe it to be a fascist salute (narccism/political gain)
Because it keeps his name in the media and he doesn't care if it's for a good or bad reason (narcicism)

I say this because more often then not, people do things for multiple reasons. None of us are privty to Elon Musk's internal life so we cannot be certain which if any of the above are true or if additional or alternative reasons were involved.

That said, none of the above would show him in a good light. Not a stable personality at all. I posit that any rational person would be at pains to clear up any confusion as soon as possible. But we are living in a post truth age.

Still - I don't think there is a poll. I spent quite a long time searching for it with no luck. So I should say 'the weight of evidence suggests no such poll exists'. Maybe someone just dreamed it? I don't know.
 
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alasdairm said:
my request has been simple, and crystal clear, from the start.

you made a claim - "Most people don't agree that he did an sig heil" - and said this was supported by "polls".

i'd like to see the polls please.

alasdair
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I know I'm late to this convo, but do you think it counts as a sig heil whether he was trolling or not? Do you think it makes a difference morally ?
 
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