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Election 2020 The 2020 Candidates: Right, Left and Center!

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trump and senator warren can both fly a kite on another planet in another solar system on the opposite end of the universe

hillary has to fly a kite on the edge of the universe away from them and us

equilateral triangle trifecta
 
Could we put the Elizabeth Warren announcement in its own thread folks? It's likely to garner a fair bit of posting over the next year or two and probably needs it own 2020 thread :)

Glad she's stepped up. I don't know a ton about her, but the quotes I see look positive and kinda Bernie-esque (aside from the utterly absurd and damaging native American debacle she badly misjudged).
 
Releasing her DNA analysis proving Native American ancestry was her announcement for running. She knew it would get your attention, and she has it. I thought that was obvious. Politics 101.
 
I think a safe candidate would be Joe Biden. Within the party he's liked well-enough, he's not too-progressive, and I believe he has a much better chance connecting to middle-ground voters than a Bernie Sanders or Beto O'rourke. I think his biggest obstacle is that he may not be as progressive as the current democratic voter-base calls for.

I think the Democratic party is having trouble because they are split between the "Sanders," who want more radical change, and the "Bidens," who aren't satisfied with the status-quo, but also don't subscribe to the ultra-progressive policies being pushed.
 
^ if she (or someone similarly progressive) wins, I think you may see the Democrats experience just what the UK Labour party has been going through since 2015, when the left regained control under Corbyn.

Cue tons of infighting, aggressive social media and party infrastructure wars, and some allying of the 'centrist' democrats to republicans on various occasions or issues, with ongoing efforts to undermine the leadership at every turn.

It's a risky course, but I think it needs to happen. The pro-corporate wing of the party needs to be excised (or at least muted) if they genuinely want to resuscitate the middle classes and prepare the country for the coming decades. They need to work towards delivering more than just a few empty Obama-esque soundbites, sops and tidbits to the base, while really representing the usual billionaire bigwigs.
 
I hope that can happen... the problem is the billionaire bigwigs are dead set on maintaining their control, and they're really good at it.
 
I'm simply wondering if the Republicans put Trump up for a second term, or back away from him and start pushing someone else. It's an odd position to find oneself in - and they kinda have to wait and see until the last possible minute, IMO, unless Trump can find a way to implode and make himself unelectable. Something he seems to be unable to do as yet, despite his best efforts.

If they do look elsewhere....to whom?

= = =

Democrats are going to split, IMO. The question is, 'into how many pieces' and what survives? They can't continue with the differing priorities and faces they've had catching the spotlight as of late and retain a unified party or base. They simply can't make everyone (in their base) happy. So, when they split, who has enough support to continue and oppose the R's as well as the excised D's? I could see Bernie and Cortez gaining a good bit of socialist support...but it won't be enough to win a Presidency. I see whatever party they create being smaller, but big enough to win a few offices - something like a 'green party' or similar smaller also ran making noise and taking offices, but not getting control. The more centered, conservative (?) D's likely won't jump to the R side, but will try to regain the middle ground. I can see them having more support, being the opposing force for R's, but weakened. Their strength will come from Trump's failure, not from their own promise, I believe because they haven't brought appealing options to the public in years. Ever since Trump jumped in, the main D approach has been anti-Trump as opposed to presenting something better. This is their weakness, and it needs to be addressed if they want to retake the lead.
 
If I had to guess, I would guess that by the time the election rolls around, Trump will have disqualified himself. I mean he already can't get anyone to be his chief of staff. People are running away while they still can. I know his base is still fervent, but everyone who actually works with him is jumping ship and that really says something.
 
Just my opinion, I don't think Warren would be a very good general election candidate. It would be ugly, replete with constant "nasty woman" and "Pocahontas" insults. She's more than capable of coming back swinging, but I don't see her appealing to the elusive "swing voter."

Obama was an anomaly. The political power base nationally has shifted to the south and west over the last decades. Democratic governors in the south have become nearly extinct, and the few that are around don't have much of national profile, except for maybe Ralph Northam in Virginia. Roy Cooper in North Carolina is in for a bruising re-election campaign. So I'm thinking a western populist is the way to go; someone like Hickenlooper or Steve Bullock in Montana. I just can't see it happening for Kamala Harris, Beto O'Rourke or any of the other names that the media is throwing around.

There are a bunch of old farts also talking about running: Biden, John Kerry and Hillary even said, "There's a zero percent chance there's a zero percent chance I'll run again." Biden would be 80 on Inauguration Day 2020, and Bernie would be 81. Age would certainly become an issue. John Kerry and Hillary are has beens and are sure to lose again.

The more I learn about Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, she is just an empty "brand." She doesn't seem interested in governing so much as self-promotion. When 9 Democrats in the Problem Solvers Caucus withheld support for Nancy Pelosi unless Republicans had a voice the new Congress, she engaged in a Tweetstorm worthy of Trump about these nine (two of whom are Central Florida Democrats Darren Soto and Stephanie Murphy) "holding the entire party hostage" and the losing party shouldn't have a voice. She doesn't understand that shutting Republicans out will increase the likelihood of nothing getting done and that's why people hate Congress.
 
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I honestly believe Trump will still be standing come 2020, and that he'll be a serious contender for a second term.

Not least because his Democrat opponents look either over the hill or disunited and fractious, or as pointed out could very well split. And his GOP opponents won't ultimately want to rock the boat if there's a chance in-fighting gifts the presidency to a left-wing Democrat, which would likely terrify them far more than Trump ever could.

Interesting that you find Cortez to be yet more tedious wrapping paper aihfl. I kinda had that feeling from what I saw after her victory, but I guess I tend to believe that quite a lot of politicians are little more than power-hungry narcissists anyway, so never believe the hype.
 
CFC said:
I honestly believe Trump will still be standing come 2020, and that he'll be a serious contender for a second term.
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Oh I believe he'll get a second term if he's not impeached and turned out of office (which I believe is a very real possibility). I read an analysis somewhere that someone could theoretically eke out an electoral college victory with only about a quarter of the popular vote. My friends looked at me like I was from Pluto when I said this, but I live in Florida and Rick Scott seemed to be the very definition of electoral buyer's remorse when he was elected governor in 2010 and he's now gone on to squeak by in three statewide elections, the second time against another popular former governor, Charlie Crist. Look at Wisconsin - Scott Walker not only survived a recall but went on to serve two full terms as governor. Paul LePage, a bonafide asshole, was elected to two terms as governor of Maine. Popularity doesn't mean squat when it comes to electoral successes.

CFC said:
Interesting that you find Cortez to be yet more tedious wrapping paper aihfl. I kinda had that feeling from what I saw after her victory, but I guess I tend to believe that quite a lot of politicians are little more than power-hungry narcissists anyway, so never believe the hype.
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She's a "brand" and nothing of substance, much like Trump. Tom Perez called her the future of the Democratic Party. If that's the case, they only have to look to Trump to figure out their future.
 
Democrats' 2020 race is about to speed up

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Sen. Elizabeth Warren talks to reporters outside her home in Cambridge, Mass., on New Year's Eve, accompanied by her husband, Bruce Mann, and their golden retriever, Bailey. Photo: Scott Eisen/Getty Images

After two months of behind-the-scenes jockeying since the midterms, the Democrats' race for president is about to burst into the open with a series of candidacy announcements and staff hires, 2020 operatives tell me.

What's happening: "This has been a slow dance," one top strategist said. "No one was in a rush ? people said they would make a decision over the holidays. Now, the pace is about to change fast."

A wave of announcements, like the one Sen. Elizabeth Warren made on New Year's Eve morning, is planned for the next few weeks.

  • The hopefuls need to raise money, and need an organization for housing the aides they want to hire to take them off the hot 2020 job market.
  • Look for announcements this month by Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, Sen. Kamala Harris of California, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper and likely others.
  • "They need a vehicle," the strategist said. That could include an exploratory committee or a full candidacy.
I'm told that "the Bs" ? Biden, Bernie, Beto and the billionaires, including Mike Bloomberg ? can wait longer because they'll be able to quickly raise money.

  • Be smart: A veteran of Democratic presidential campaigns said top aides will start to jump to campaigns this month. But many of the "big-time consultants, many of whom have multiple possible 2020 clients," will take longer.
Go deeper: The Democrats' 2020 crowd jumps the gun
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I found the comment about candidates who can raise more funds entering the ring later to be interesting. It's always challenging to know when to announce, and too late is... well, it's too late!
 
aihfl said:
She's a "brand" and nothing of substance, much like Trump. Tom Perez called her the future of the Democratic Party. If that's the case, they only have to look to Trump to figure out their future.
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I see what you mean. Her 70% tax idea on the mega-rich even got some traction over here in the UK, but it was pointed out it would be unlikely to boost the tax intake much when all is said and done, and more of an effort in branding than a substantial idea to tackle wealth inequality. For which a wealth tax would be infinitely more effective.
 
Do you support Warren knowing she lied about being Indian to get ahead in affirmative action? Do people outside of texas not have brains? Why would they support Warren knowing she lied? Even if she is like barely Indian, you know she wasn't fully, so it's a lie to use affirmative action. THOUGHTS?
 
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