• Current Events & Politics
    Welcome Guest
    Please read before posting:
    Forum Guidelines Bluelight Rules
  • Current Events & Politics Moderators: deficiT | tryptakid | Foreigner

The 2018 Trump Presidency thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
OK so he then followed up with:

30595197_10156050603065520_3644882480596516864_n.jpg



30652825_10156050603350520_2721622390659350528_n.jpg
 
JGrimez said:
You misunderstood. I wanted you to comment on the actual video after watching.......nevermind.

In other news:

30688190_2074034692815520_4779272773279154176_n.jpg


Even if this is political theater (ala Rocket Man) I am not OK with this. Gonna seriously scare some people...
Click to expand...

Don't worry. Russians not dumb. They know it's all bullshit.
 
To quote the "Paul Ryan is retiring" article above (I'll provide link again)...

One of Washington?s best-wired Republicans said:

?This is a Titanic, tectonic shift. ? This is going to make every Republican donor believe the House can?t be held.? The announcement will help Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) in his fundraising because ?the Senate becomes the last bastion," the Republican said.
Click to expand...

https://www.axios.com/paul-ryan-not...ent-8b5c598b-bcdf-46ca-a7d9-7206c2f3fdb5.html

Why this matters: Basically the Republicans are ceding the House to Dems.

(The House votes on whether impeachment proceedings occur...I wonder if that's someone has been so unhinged?)

Republicans were already pouring money into Senate races (meaning they are actually worried about losing it).

At least Trump will get to have a lot of rallies, which don't seem to effect voters-- except possibly to drive them to the polls. (See Pennsylvania.)

Apparently governing in the Trump Era just sux. They are fleeing for the exits.
 
cduggles said:
To quote the "Paul Ryan is retiring" article above (I'll provide link again)...



https://www.axios.com/paul-ryan-not...ent-8b5c598b-bcdf-46ca-a7d9-7206c2f3fdb5.html

Why this matters: Basically the Republicans are ceding the House to Dems.

(The House votes on whether impeachment proceedings occur...I wonder if that's someone has been so unhinged?)

Republicans were already pouring money into Senate races (meaning they are actually worried about losing it).

At least Trump will get to have a lot of rallies, which don't seem to effect voters-- except possibly to drive them to the polls. (See Pennsylvania.)

Apparently governing in the Trump Era just sux. They are fleeing for the exits.
Click to expand...

This is what draining the swamp looks like. Just like Bob corker he likely polled his district and got such low numbers his backers weren’t willing to fund his re election bid. Corker even polled a second time just to make sure.
 
Maybe Trump has a master plan... be such an overwhelmingly difficult president to work with, and make so many damaging decisions, that the Republican party falls apart, and then he suddenly becomes super-president.

...But somehow I doubt it. I think he's just made such a mess of things and shined so many lights on what's going on that people are getting out before the house of cards comes tumbling down.
 
JessFR said:
Don't worry. Russians not dumb. They know it's all bullshit.
Click to expand...
So now you're saying Russians aren't dumb? You've spent the past couple days definitively stating that they were responsible for one of the worst assassination attempts in history.

Xorkoth said:
Maybe Trump has a master plan
Click to expand...
The evidence so far shows that he does. Somehow, miraculously, as a previous Democrat he was able to beat out 16 Republicans to get the nomination, then go up against the entire establishment and mainstream media and beat Clinton in a rigged election with less than half the money. Then everyone said he wouldn't last a month, or 6 months, or a year... People forget that most political moves happen behind the scenes. We assume that what we see is the entire story, which is even more ridiculous if we only view the liberal media. No wall yet, but the swamp draining is unfolding right in front of our eyes.
 
I'm putting this here because despite the caterwauling of Trump, the U.S. Attorney?s Office for the Southern District of New York raided Michael Cohen's office.

The legal bar to violate attorney-client privilege is quite high (all of the people currently on the bench were lawyers before they were judges, so they respect that particular privilege as sacred). And yet Michael Cohen, Trump's personal lawyer had his residence and office raided. It's historic.

So...
Why Robert Mueller Handed Off the Michael Cohen Raid

The FBI raided Michael Cohen?s office and hotel room on Monday, and what we know about who did the raid is just as important as the information we have on why they did it.

The raid was by the U.S. Attorney?s Office for the Southern District of New York, and not directly by Robert Mueller?s special counsel?s office. Mueller?s team referred the case to the U.S. attorney, but the U.S. attorney sought the search warrant and received it only after establishing probable cause. In searches of such high-profile and sensitive subjects, U.S. attorneys usually need approval higher up in the Department of Justice.

Why might this U.S. attorney?s office have been involved? One answer is the most basic: a raid of at least two locations simultaneously?office and hotel?requires a lot of bodies and coordination. If you need that many FBI agents, you already need to coordinate with the local office for it to go smoothly. Former prosecutors say that Mueller might have referred this raid to the Southern District for logistical reasons alone. But he still chose to refer the investigation to this U.S. attorney?s office rather than simply use their logistical support.

What else might this move tell us about Robert Mueller?s thinking? First, remember that Mueller has learned that Trump has already tried to fire him, and the person who reportedly stopped him?White House counsel Don McGahn?is rumored to be on his way out of the administration.

The Post is reporting that the subject of the Cohen warrant was an investigation into possible bank fraud, wire fraud, and campaign finance violations, possibly related to a hush money contract with adult film performer Stormy Daniels. Mueller probably could have made a claim that Cohen already fell under his jurisdiction, which is to investigate Russian election interference, links between the Trump campaign and Russia, and ?any matters that arose or may arise directly from the investigation.? But it has been reported that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein made the call to involve the U.S. attorney, and perhaps Rosenstein made a strategic calculation about Trump, or they agreed together. It seems, though, that both men know they need to spread Mueller?s work around as a hedge against his firing, and maybe even to try to deter Trump from firing him.

In comments after the raid, Trump attacked Mueller, Rosenstein, and Attorney General Jeff Sessions, hinting ominously about what he might do next. Mueller and Rosenstein may have anticipated that this raid might have been the last straw for Trump, triggering their firings as they get closer and closer to Trump?s inner circle and any potential personal criminal liability. Once other prosecutors? offices are involved and have gathered evidence of crimes, though, Trump receives less benefit from firing Mueller, and at an increasing cost. And even if Trump fires Mueller, more prosecutors can carry on the work, with access to some of the same material. Trump should not be able to fire Mueller under the DOJ?s rules or under the Constitution, but Mueller and Rosenstein understand they need to have an emergency backup for a president who does not care about those rules.

Second, Mueller?s move also suggests that he trusts some prosecutors to cooperate, that he trusts Rosenstein to keep up his supervision, and that he at least has sufficient hope that Sessions will stay out of the way. Sessions? firing of FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe did not inspire confidence that he would recuse himself fully from the Russia investigation, but Mueller must have some assurances from Rosenstein that the investigation can proceed in the DOJ.

Third, Mueller may be thinking about politics and legitimacy. The right-wing pundits and Fox News commentators have been complaining that Mueller has exceeded the scope of the Russia investigation. (They did not seem to mind when special counsel Kenneth Starr moved from a land deal to a blue dress.) Anyone who has followed Cohen?s career knows there are obvious connections to the Russia investigation. Even if these conservative attacks are not legally sound or morally consistent, they nevertheless might give Trump cover to fire Mueller, and they might give Republicans cover to tolerate his firing with just enough handwringing and finger-wagging but no real action.

So, Mueller may be engaging in a political strategy: Monday?s raid does not fit the right-wing narrative of a deep-state Inspector Javert out of control, but instead, it involves more traditional law enforcement officials and even more Trump appointees. The Southern District is the most establishment prosecutors? office in the country, which might still open up attacks on ?the deep state? from the fringe right and the Trump dead-enders, but mainstream Republicans know better. U.S. Attorney Geoffrey Berman is viewed as a reliable nonpartisan professional who served in Republican administrations. Sessions appointed Berman as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District after Trump interviewed him. It would be ridiculous to attack Berman as a Democratic mole. [Update, April 10: ABC News has reported that Berman is recused from the investigation.]

If Mueller himself led the raid, the right-wing media could have more plausibly accused him of crossing a red-line if he seemed to be pursuing such Stormy seas. Mueller did not push this Starr-crossed envelope, though. He kept his ship in calmer waters and shored up his legal and political legitimacy with other legal institutions signing on.

Fourth, this raid involved not only the U.S. attorney?s office, but also a federal judge or magistrate judge signing off on the search warrant on the president?s lawyer after finding probable cause of criminal acts. That?s a big deal. A magistrate is not a federal judge, but they are appointed by federal judges, and they are not going to mess around in such a high-profile case. The prosecutors had to show not only probable cause of a crime, but they probably also had to persuade the magistrate that attorney-client privilege did not protect against the raid. Prosecutors likely had to convince the magistrate that at least some of the evidence would fit the crime-fraud exception to the privilege, and that bar is usually set very high. In such cases, it is important to have a separate team of investigators examine the evidence to separate protected communication from unprotected, which is another reason to involve the U.S. attorney, because the office is probably better able to provide two separate teams to honor the attorney-client privilege.

Fifth, Mueller may simply realize that his team already has too much work to prosecute Cohen for campaign finance felonies. That case seems relatively straightforward: Cohen allegedly made an illegal campaign donation willfully. When John Edwards?s campaign did something similar, the DOJ prosecuted. Let the DOJ handle this aspect of the Stormy case quickly, and meanwhile, Mueller is free to speak with Cohen?s attorneys and see if he might want to make a deal on the more direct Russia investigation?though given his loyalty to Trump, this seems like a long shot. But maybe Cohen?s documents will be enough, without Cohen?s active cooperation.

Finally, anyone who has been following this investigation knows that Michael Cohen?s involvement is more than just hush-money for his client?s sexual adventures. Various journalists, such as Josh Marshall, have shown that Cohen is deeply implicated in Trump?s business in Russia and potential financial crimes over many years. If Putin has kompromat on Trump, it may actually be evidence of such financial crimes. If Cohen knows where the bodies are buried, Mueller may be one step closer to knowing, too. And significantly, more prosecutors? offices may be closer to knowing, as well.
Click to expand...
 
Three different versions of Paul Ryan's retirement:

Ryan: Family, not Trump or elections, led to retirement decision

How Trump broke Paul Ryan

GOP leaders flee Washington: First chairmen, now Paul Ryan

House Speaker Paul Ryan is the latest GOP leader to announce he'll exit Congress.

Why it matters: The Republican party already saw a record number of retirements from chairmen this year, and will now need to work quickly to find a new leader. Meanwhile, there will be at least 58 vacated House seats up for grabs by the time the November 6 midterm elections roll around, and 39 of those are Republican seats.

Notable names out:

Orin Hatch (UT), Chairman of Senate Finance Committee, assumed position in 2015, member of Congress since 1977.

Gregg Harper (MS), Chairman of House Administration Committee, assumed position in 2017, member since 2009.

Diane Black (TN), Chairwoman of Budget Committee, assumed position in 2017, member since 2011.

Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ), Chairman of Appropriations Committee, assumed position in 2017, member since 1995.

Bob Goodlatte (VA), Chairman ofJudiciary Committee, assumed position in 2013, member since 1993.

Trey Gowdy (SC), Chairman of Oversight Committee, assumed position in 2017, member since 2011.

Jeb Hensarling (TX), Chairman of Financial Services Committee, assumed position in 2013, member since 2003.

Ed Royce (CA), Chairman of Foreign Affairs Committee, assumed position in 2013, member since 1993.

Bill Shuster (PA), Chairman of Transportation Committee, assumed position in 2013, member since 2001.

Lamar Smith (TX), Chairman of Science, Space, and Technology Committee, assumed position in 2013, member since 1987.

A majority of retiring committee members have a result of term-limits, as Republican rules limit House chairmen to six years. However, it's difficult to say whether these members would have run again had they had the option to do so.

Between the lines: As Axios' Mike Allen has previously reported, losing the House could have big implications for the White House. "If Dems take the House and there's a Speaker Pelosi, President Trump faces endless subpoenas and perhaps impeachment proceedings," he writes.
Click to expand...

I completely forgot that subpoena power returns to the Dems if the House is lost. Ouch!

I don't necessarily subscribe to any one idea above (family, Trump, losing the House) or even that being Speaker of an obviously fractured House is v difficult, as complete when it comes to Ryan retiring.

I think it's everything but the family. (I knew a Republican who had to get a family to get out of frontline politics :D.)
 
This is just how government works in general republican or Democrat it's just a mess of politicians stealing money from the people, misappropriating it into wars, splurging in economic welfare for Israel, and taking away civil liberties.

The govenrment never gets anything done bedsides what I listed
 
What if Trump was ushered in to office by the golden elite of the United States for their capital benefit, and letting him end up as a scapegoat?
 
john boehner: pothead

John A. Boehner, the speaker of the House from 2011 to 2015, reversed a long-held stance against marijuana legalization on Wednesday, saying on Twitter that “my thinking on cannabis has evolved.”

Mr. Boehner, a Republican leader who in 2011 told a constituent he was “unalterably opposed” to legalization, joined the board of advisers of Acreage Holdings, a cannabis corporation that operates in 11 states.

While the announcement might be viewed as a sign that cannabis is becoming a big business that can afford to ally with prominent names from the world of politics, Mr. Boehner cast it as a genuine change of heart.
Click to expand...
 
tathra said:
john boehner: pothead
Click to expand...

People often think that the drug laws won't change because there's too much money in enforcement and politicians are corrupt and only care about money. They're half right, they are corrupt and money loving. But there's lots of money to be made in drug legalization, it's just that politicians, like most people, are usually idiots and don't realize what they're missing out on. When they do, their supposed moral convictions can change real fast.
 
JGrimez said:
5 trillion+ added to stock market
Click to expand...
i think it's a mistake to trumpet benefits outwith the associated costs. yes, the stock market is going nuts because trumps administration is rolling back regulations and handing corporations huge tax reductions. at what cost?

JGrimez said:
2million+ jobs
Click to expand...

here's a graph of month-on-month increases between 2011 and 2017:

employment01.jpg


the gains don't look that dissimilar to the typical gains under obama, do they? in fact the highest gain (on this graph) is 232k jobs. that number was exceeded in 28 discrete months during obama's terms.

indeed, the job gain in later 2017 (feb-aug) were actually lower than the previous 6 years. august 2017 was the 83rd successive month in which jobs were gained.

(source for all this: the bureau of labor statistics)

total (non-farm) employment grew by 1.84 million jobs in the president's first 11 months in office. that is great but it's also 12% lower than the total number of jobs created in the 11 months immediately prior to his taking office.

there was a high in february 2018 of 313k which is impressive but the average number of jobs created per month in trump's term so far is 167,182. that falls well short (~21%) of obama's second-term average of 213,708. he also claimed he'd create 215 million jobs in 10 years (see: Trump’s promise to create 25 million jobs in a decade seems wildly unrealistic) and he's well off the pace if he's to substantiate that claim. (source: factcheck.org)

as usual, a more in-depth analysis suggests that trump's claims and tweets aren't as accurate as he'd like you to believe.

alasdair

[i moved this post from the nk thread as it was off-topic. better here.]
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top