It's like predicting the National winner. You can study the form, read what the experts think and learn about the trainers and jockeys. You'll be a little wiser but ain't no way you're definitely going to call it right.
Facts, in no particular order.
(1) US 'biological warfare' defoliants are in use in Afghanistan and inflict serious damage on the poppy crop
(2) Afghan president Karzi is reluctant to allow aerial spraying in 'friendly' tribal areas and on-the-ground eradication is less effective, in part because 70% of the sprayers have been killed by pissed-off farmers.
(3) From raw opium at Far East farm gate to heroin bag on your corner is a long journey involving 'organised' and minor crime figures with attendant, labyrinthine political and law-enforcement corruption. If you're not part of it, you don't know about it. It's wise to stay that way, lest you lose all your illusions.
(4)Major UK trafficking has been in the hands of ethnic Turks, who've been hard hit by recent police operations here and in Turkey.
(5) The enormous profits, and the heavy sentences if caught, make retirement an attractive option for the successful; thus, established networks fall into disuse.
(6) For European players, there's of course the extra border. Huge markets elsewhere are easier destinations. The'drought' has been Europe-wide, including Russia, which suggests supplies are being diverted to India, Africa and possibly China.
(7) New producing countries aren't advertising and it will take a while to get organised (6) The Afghan harvest is March-May. Conversion into heroin and transport to markets here can take anywhere from one to eighteen months.
(eight) When a certain level of 'bash' becomes the norm, it stays that way unless there's a consumer reaction and boycott, which in the case of heroin is highly unlikely.
So I haven't a clue, either, but on balance would tend to agree with Blondin. What the community needs is some bold suicide smugglers willing to take that day trip to Helmand. And, if not sell it at cost, at least not cut it to shreds when and if they get home.