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Population / Do you like the direction we are heading?

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What are peoples thoughts and ideas in regards to population, not just here on our little island Australia but world wide and a as race of human beings?

Is it true that in India there is as many children born in a day as there is here in Australia every year approx.? Shit is going to compound real quick no? Can we sustain our current growth rate? i want my children to have it better than me? With finite resources should we perhaps be just a little more cautious of our economic system and its necessity for growth?

How do you feel about the majority of our wealth seemingly in the control of a minority and yet poverty is so prevalent?

As far as im aware currently we do not have another planet to populate, so what are your thoughts on our childrens future here on planet earth.

I want to leave this world in a better place then when i entered it and im concerned it is not happening. Does anybody else feel the same?

Surely we can improve upon what we currently have and our future outlook...

i hope his doesnt come across too pessimistic and negative <3
 
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You'll be glad to know I'm committed to not EVER reproducing because of the way I see our planets future and the damage humans are causing :) This is strictly speaking about a global perspective though, I think we have 'boundless plains to share' here in oz.
 
On 6 September 2012 at 08:11:15 AM (Canberra time), the resident population of Australia is projected to be:

22,721,043
This projection is based on the estimated resident population at 31 December 2011 and assumes growth since then of:
one birth every 1 minute and 47 seconds,
one death every 3 minutes and 35 seconds ,
a net gain of one international migration every 2 minutes and 42 seconds, leading to
an overall total population increase of one person every 1 minute and 32 seconds .


India's Population 2012

Current Population of India in 2012 1,220,200,000 (1.22 billion)
Total Male Population in India 628,800,000 (628.8 million)
Total Female Population in India 591,400,000 (591.4 million)
Sex Ratio 940 females per 1,000 males
Age structure
0 to 25 years 50% of India's current population
Currently, there are about 51 births in India in a minute.
India's Population in 2011 1.21 billion
India's Population in 2001 1.02 billion
Population of India in 1947 350 million

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]?OpenDocument

http://www.indiaonlinepages.com/population/india-current-population.html

i want my children to have it better than me? With finite resources should we perhaps be just a little more cautious of our economic system and its necessity for growth?

Your kids will have it fine I think, for quite a few generations after them as well. Obviously it would be alot tougher if you lived in India.

The world will keep going like it has for along time, just with more and more ants (us humans) Aus has so much space/area it's no wonder why so many people want to come and live here.

Eventually in the future, a long long time away (1000's or more years) if we haven't blown the place up by then, natural disasters or diseases will wipe so many humans out (on a scale of billions) so the earth can regenerate again whilst we breed like rats again. I cant believe some of my friends have 5 and 6 kids, but they seem happy and it's not illegal, I think you are allowed to have as many as you like, unlike in China where it is 1 baby policy and they apparently often kill the baby if it female as alot of families wont a male because they think it will work harder or earn more money or have a better chance or something like that.

I dont mind the way we are heading, as bad as it seems sometimes it could always be alot worse, ie major worldwide nuclear wars, major natural disasters all over the place at once, worldwide terrorist attacks and wars.

I'm happy I live here tho, not India or China or Indo or or a heap of other places.

Some people say the world will run out of food or this or that by such an such a time, who knows, lots of theories go round hey, i personally know this guy who is around my age (mid 30's) and has an underground bunker with hundreds of tins of food, a variety of different things, some crossbows, mega amounts of bottled water and all sorts of other shit, just incase Aus runs out of food or we have some major natural disaster, so he and his family are ok. When he was telling me this I was thinking to myself wtf is this guy serious, he was tho. lol.
 
I think that the structures of the earth that human beings rely on face catastrophic break down within our own lifetime. Unsustainable population growth is a primary factor is this.

Humans are already unsustainable. If everybody in the world lived to the same standard as someone in Australia, we'd need the resources of equivalent to 3 planet earths. Many of the resources are finite; even the ones that aren't, if used quicker than they can regenerate, will cause the degredation of natural capital.

Developing countries aspire to our lifestyle. The world simply can't support that, but it doesn't come across well if developing countries, which for the most part have been the major contributors of unsustainable development patterns, turn around and say, we fucked up, we've caused all this damage, now to fix that that you can't develop. 'Sustainable Development', that loaded buzzword, incorporates social justice issues as well.

Population pressures exacerbate and compund unsustainable development. Providing an ever increasing population with food and fresh water, whilst at the same time changing the availability of these resources through pollution and climate change, is likely to be fraught with difficulty.

I don't believe that humanity will address the crises facing it before it's too late. Even if every person on earth began reproducing only to their replacement rate, the world's population would keep increasing for 20 years, as there is such a huge amount of young people under the reproductive age currently. IMO the current population is unsustainable, not to mention any growth. How to deal with it? It doesn't really matter, because it wont be dealt with. Humanity by nature waits until the consequences of continuing something are worse than the consequences of stopping to change (really change) any behaviour. The problem is that by the time the consequences truly start to appear, the point of no return will have been left far behind.
 
Tim Flannery reckons the world reached its carrying capacity in 1984, we've been on borrowed time ever since. I've recently been reading a book called "The coming Famine" by Julian Cribb who is a scientist with the CSIRO. To cut a long story short, we're all fucked by around 2050. If you think the boat people situation is bad now, just wait till there is water, food, oil, nutrient and land shortages as well as the collapse of major fisheries. There will be billions of people knocking on our door trying to flee all kinds of wars and famines.

It's not all pessimism tho, there are plenty of ways to deal with 'peak people' like eating less meat, recycling more nutrients and using water and space more wisely. However, with politics in developed countries currently bickering over irrelevant shit I don't see any progress any time soon.

Unfortunately the whole world seems to be very short sighted with regard to a sustainable human population. Most countries, including Australia, actually pay people to have babies in order to keep the economy growing. Given that we (us lucky Australians) are essentially all living a life of luxury, just how important is this economic growth? I'd be more than happy if we got knocked down a peg or two, at least the average person in this country would have a little more gratitude for the lifestyle we live rather than constantly whinging about how hard done by they are.

As usual I think a major thing standing in our way is religion. Things like legal euthanasia, abortion and contraceptives would go a long way to make our population more sustainable. There is also the development and growth of GM crops. Whether you're a fan of the idea or not there is a time coming in the very near future where we will have no choice but to use GM crops because we just won't be able to get enough food out of our farm land to feed everyone otherwise.

It looks to me as if China is the only country that is being smart about this. As well as limiting their population growth, they're also busy buying up productive farm lands in Australia and New Zealand and probably other countries for all I know. I can't help but feel that is not just a move motivated by profits but also by securing a food supply for the future.
 
I want to leave this world in a better place then when i entered it and im concerned it is not happening. Does anybody else feel the same?

Totally. All you can do is your own little bit.
 
the economic and political structures we play life in are more of a threat to our environment than population imo.
 
thanks heaps for the figures pd and all the responses guys!

L2R what do you mean by the economic and political structures? I like the play life bit hehe, what are we just a computer virus, a machine spitting out algorithm on top of algorithm on top algorithm?

economy, population, politics and religion are all so tightly intertwined and so hungry for growth. we know it cant continue yet we do seemingly nothing.

sort of does my head in thinking about it...i dont see how anyone can justify having more than two children, i just dont see it as fair...i know nothing is fair.
 
i dont see how anyone can justify having more than two children

I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes law in more places than just China in the future. But not here, and not in alot of places, one of the biggest reasons would be as NickyJ said above -

Most countries, including Australia, actually pay people to have babies in order to keep the economy growing.

It's a no win situation in alot of ways, they wont the economy to grow with more people and with more people the resources get thrashed and we all just consume more and make more garbage, it's probably pretty hard for alot of people in cities (especially in high rise apartments) to do alot for the environment, I mean they can't get rainwater tanks installed, they can't invest in solar, they can't grow their own fruit and vegies on any kind of larger scale than a herb garden often. They can recycle and cut down on this or that I guess. And we will see more and more high rises being built and lived in.

I don't know what will happen, but I dont think much will change in our lifetimes. Not ever your kids. Shit will just continue on like it has and get more populated and more expensive, more people forced into high rise living and also into outer regions further inland, away from any coast, where there are less people and land and houses are cheaper in comparison to the coastal areas.
 
I find it a bit concerning that not that long ago Australian people were being told to "have another child" to ensure we kept up our population growth.

I think we should be more concerned with how we're going to provide for the ever growing number of older Australians who are living longer, with less money than ever due to the GFC severely impacting their superannuation and quality of life. :(
 
^ we were being told "have another child" at the same time as "we're being flooded by illegal boat people [sic]".
xenophobic manipulation for short term political gain.

i don't have much to add to what footsy and nickyj have said. spot on guys.


Unfortunately the whole world seems to be very short sighted with regard to a sustainable human population. Most countries, including Australia, actually pay people to have babies in order to keep the economy growing. Given that we (us lucky Australians) are essentially all living a life of luxury, just how important is this economic growth? I'd be more than happy if we got knocked down a peg or two, at least the average person in this country would have a little more gratitude for the lifestyle we live rather than constantly whinging about how hard done by they are.
 
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poledriver said:
It's probably pretty hard for alot of people in cities (especially in high rise apartments) to do alot for the environment, I mean they can't get rainwater tanks installed, they can't invest in solar, they can't grow their own fruit and vegies on any kind of larger scale than a herb garden often. They can recycle and cut down on this or that I guess. And we will see more and more high rises being built and lived in.

Higher density housing is actually one of the best ways to achieve better 'sustainability'. Urban sprawl is so incredibly damaging. Cities that keep expanding their growth boundaries to allow everyone to have a detached house with a yard are causing much, much more harm than good. Urban sprawl takes up the best farmland, because cities are usually built on the most fertile land, then housing becomes a higher value use for the land, pushing agriculture out into less productive land. It is usually much more expensive to build a new suburb, with new water pipes, sewage facilities and so on, than to use existing structures more intensely. The costs for infill (higher density housing) is $309 million per 1000 dwellings, compared to $653 million to build a new suburb on the fringe. Suburbs that are an ever increasing distance from the cbd, and further from most employment opportunities, create a reliance on cars, with all the problems - for example pollution and ghg emissions - they bring. Furthermore, many of these outlying suburbs are terribly planned, with essential facilities such as schools, shops, and public transport provision being ignored, leading to social problems. There are also implications for biodiversity, with significant natural areas being chaged into residential lots.

High density housing - not high rises necessarily, but a much higher density than is the norm is Australia, is part of the solution, not the problem.
 
When I was studying commerce at Melbourne Uni a couple of years back I went to a speech given by the Finance Minister of Indonesia (who rocked up in a limosuine), and he said bluntly: "We now have the capacity to make any and all of the high-tech products as you can make in Australia, the only difference is we can make it at less than a quarter of the cost. I'm not saying this to scare you, but rather just to warn you of changes in the future."

So yeah, global economic domination has already begun moving away from America and is centering upon the BRIC nations, in particular China.

Having said that we are quite lucky in Australia in that we are situated in an almost perfect geographic position to take maximum advantage of this by selling these booming Asian markets our abundant natural resources, which already account for a huge proportion of our exports (~35 % ).

BUT the problem with this is that our economy will become uni-lateral, which means incredible risk, and we will be at the mercy of the BRIC nations and their appetite for iron ore, coal, etc.

A hard rain is gonna fall either way.
 
High density housing - not high rises necessarily, but a much higher density than is the norm is Australia, is part of the solution, not the problem.

You raise alot of good points for medium and higher density housing and it has lots of benefits also, and obviously it's what will happen in the major city areas more and more in the future.

In theory, higher housing density can be cheaper, and allow for cheaper provision of services and public transport. Higher density housing in the form of apartments and terrace housing also has the potential to have lower heating and cooling requirements (an advantage for both sustainability and housing affordability). Local regulations often work against this however, for example density caps, height limits and requirements for housing setback. Some of these do have good reasons, but could arguably be solved in other ways with less restriction on density, thus less restriction on housing supply, and potentially/theoretically lower housing costs.

A paradox is that large cities where high densities are found are generally less affordable. Which causes considerable complications and a stressful living experience, people have to work longer hours per week and for much more of their lives.

A range of researchers have explored the impacts of high density living highlighting benefits relating to efficient use of land, reduced reliance on automobiles and enhanced social interaction.This form of living, however, has also received criticism from those in favour of ‘traditional suburban’ lifestyles as well as in relation to potential impacts such as noise, pollution, limited space and overcrowding.

Without changes to regulation, demand for houses is likely to continue to outstrip supply, meaning prices will continue to rise and densities increase while dwelling size decreases. This is likely to be unpopular and may be detrimental to well being. Moreover, as available land diminishes, green spaces and urban leisure facilities may come under increasing pressure for redevelopment, provoking higher prices or relocation to out of city areas.

In either case a loss of services would result and research suggests that wellbeing would probably be affected. Political intervention to prescribe minimum standards for dwelling size may merely exacerbate the problem as more people are priced out of the market.

High density housing - not high rises necessarily, but a much higher density than is the norm is Australia, is part of the solution, not the problem.

There is significant research which shows that high density living is unpopular and that factors associated with high density living are detrimental to wellbeing.

It's ok to cram people into areas for several reasons and around city areas it pretty much has to be done, as lots and lots (millions) of people have to live there for work reasons, but how great is it for the environment and happiness when you can't grow your own veggies and fruit, you can't have a large tank to use the rain water for your house (city rain is probably polluted anyway, or will be) you cant have chooks and get the eggs, you cant fish in lots of areas because its too polluted from too many people and the waste they create, the ocean will get more and more filthy/disgusting because of the millions of people who's sewerage is pumped into it, instead of having a septic system that helps fertilise ones garden on a block.

It's the way we will go no doubt tho, more and more into the future we'll have larger high rises and higher density housing in more and more places, with less and less green spaces and eventually we will get to be like China where people live in a big shoebox and kill themselves more because they are so depressed at the shit way of life.

A hard rain is gonna fall either way.

Yep, an acid rain probably in the city areas eventually.

No, we are very lucky here we don't get acid rain on such an extent as other countries do and have.

Australia has not experienced the problems caused by acid rain in other countries around the world. The emissions produced in this country are, in a global context, relatively small, and our geographical position isolates us from pollution caused by others.

However, being aware of the risks and keeping polluting emissions to a minimum now will help to ensure that acid rain does not become a concern for Australia in the future.

Because of our geographic alignment and our massive land mass and our 0.3%of the world population all contribute to why it is not a major problem in Aus. We are lucky here in lots of respects.

Something will probably happen eventually by mother nature, something like a tsunami maybe, one bigger than the 2004 boxing day one and heaps of the coastal areas will get smashed, the one in 2004 -

The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake was an undersea megathrust earthquake that occurred at 00:58:53 UTC on Sunday, 26 December 2004, with an epicentre off the west coast of Sumatra, Indonesia. The quake itself is known by the scientific community as the Sumatra–Andaman earthquake.[4][5] The resulting tsunami is given various names, including the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, South Asian tsunami, Indonesian tsunami, and Boxing Day tsunami.
The earthquake was caused by subduction and triggered a series of devastating tsunamis along the coasts of most landmasses bordering the Indian Ocean, killing over 230,000 people in fourteen countries, and inundating coastal communities with waves up to 30 meters (98 ft) high.[6] It was one of the deadliest natural disasters in recorded history. Indonesia was the hardest-hit country, followed by Sri Lanka, India, and Thailand.
With a magnitude of Mw 9.1–9.3, it is the third largest earthquake ever recorded on a seismograph. The earthquake had the longest duration of faulting ever observed, between 8.3 and 10 minutes. It caused the entire planet to vibrate as much as 1 centimetre (0.4 inches)[7] and triggered other earthquakes as far away as Alaska.[8] Its epicentre was between Simeulue and mainland Indonesia.[9] The plight of the affected people and countries prompted a worldwide humanitarian response. In all, the worldwide community donated more than $14 billion (2004 US$) in humanitarian aid.[10]

I could see something like that effecting one of the coasts of Aus one day, then we would be pretty fucked. Unless you live a fair bit inland of course. If something much bigger than that 2004 one hit in several areas at once all over the world and killed say 230 Million people or more that could cull the human population a wee bit, I think we kind of need these things to happen (on large scales) to slow the breeding and humans down somewhat, otherwise we are just going to keep breeding like rats.
 
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I think the main things you've brought up are overcrowding, affordability and mental health. The resource you used doesn't seem to be particulary focussed on Australia as our planning schemes address some of the considerations that you've brought up, unlike that article you've quoted suggests. I'll address some of them but I do want to say that I think some of the things you've said have merit, and I don't think that higher den sity housing is a perfect solution without problems. I think that it can play a role in 'sustainability', but I also think there are good things about lower density suburbs too.

It is generally accepted that there's a certain range of densities which are best in terms of social considerations, and these can be a lot higher than the norm in Australia. I think that higher density housing is good, high rises probably aren't. You can achieve much higher density housing without building a high rise - a 5 storey maximum, with the storeys set back a certain distance from the road, regulations on street frontages and so on, which creates a pleasant appearance and which can revitalises a sense of community with a vibrant street life. Planning is of the utmost importance, some high density housing will be bad socially, but it doesn't have to be.

In Australia it is proposed that 25% of new developments be 'affordable' housing, to combat the affordability problem.

poledriver said:
but how great is it for the environment and happiness when you can't grow your own veggies and fruit, you can't have a large tank to use the rain water for your house (city rain is probably polluted anyway, or will be) you cant have chooks and get the eggs, you cant fish in lots of areas because its too polluted from too many people and the waste they create,

I think there's a few assumptions here that aren't as simple as on the face of it they might appear to be. City areas have so much potential to play a part in water resources. One of the biggest aspects in stormwater management in permeability. The non porous areas in urban areas contribute most to polluted water (water runs down roads, collecting all the pollution off them, before flowing into drains straight out to sea, as opposed to absorbing into dirt, which acts as a filter for the pollutants). Areas that are already urbanised probably have less chance to retrofit swales, rain garden and the like (though roof gardens are a reasonably promising area of research here), but concentrating higher densities within these already existing areas, rather than building more impermeable surfaces out in the suburbs, is more likely to have a positive influence on water quality. Houses with yards also use vastly more water than apartments, by watering gardens and washing cars.

Community gardens and roof gardens offer city livers a chance to grow their own food and have chooks. I think urban permaculture is a great thing, but it's not going to be a significant source of food anytime soon. The most important thing in terms of food production is to protect the agricultural land at our fringes to produce this stuff. I don't think lower density suburbs should be destroyed either, and these definitely have a role to play in being highly vegetated 'lungs' of the city. There is a requirement in Australia to have a certain amount of open space per capita, which I can't be bothered looking up right now - but this would have to be taken into consideration and ensured when building higher density housing.

poledriver said:
the ocean will get more and more filthy/disgusting because of the millions of people who's sewerage is pumped into it, instead of having a septic system that helps fertilise ones garden on a block.

Septic tanks are governed by all sorts of regulations. I was just in the field on Friday looking into this exact issue, someone had requested a planning permit for land that was unsewered, so the septic tank and its environmental impacts was of utmost importance. Septic tanks need to be more than 100m from a fresh water source (more or less depending on the type of water source) can't be built on land that slopes too much, and often have to be spaced at a very low density so as not to risk polluting waterways (about one house per 40 hectares), though this doesn't always happen in practice. Sewage in Australia is treated, and definitely has less of an impact environmentally than if everyone had a septic system.
 
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I find it a bit concerning that not that long ago Australian people were being told to "have another child" to ensure we kept up our population growth.

I think we should be more concerned with how we're going to provide for the ever growing number of older Australians who are living longer, with less money than ever due to the GFC severely impacting their superannuation and quality of life. :(

Isn't that at least partly the point of having more kids? To stop our population becoming a mushroom shape so we can provide for the oldies?
 
You could lower the retirement age and introduce an extermination age. Problem solved ;) Our problem isn't too many people being born it is too many old cunts over staying their welcome. After all every baby is a fresh canvas to create an ideal citizen to replace a current dead beat.

The fact we live on an isolated rock floating in space by definition means we have limited resources but I don't believe we are in any immediate danger of extinction any time soon. Sure there are pressures but we are not exactly using our resources efficiently. Here in Australia in particular we could all run our households solely through current technology solar panels, and we could better utilize our rain water particularly in cities with vast roof spaces that usually pour straight into the storm water system . The use of low energy public transport and farms within cities is almost no existent at present.

Society in general is too wasteful, we live in such a disposable society that even things like cars are considered a throw away item. Long before we run out of minerals you will find humans discovering the long lost ability to repair items, treasure and maintain their possessions so that they could be passed onto the next generation or even simply reusing items for other means than what they are originally designed. You only have to visit our land fills to discover how much of our society is thrown away.
 
thanks heaps for the figures pd and all the responses guys!

L2R what do you mean by the economic and political structures? I like the play life bit hehe, what are we just a computer virus, a machine spitting out algorithm on top of algorithm on top algorithm?

economic, the insatiable greed of capitalism will eat this world's resources and replace it with trash.
political, the nation state structure promotes financial and resource privaleges to anyone who holds power, this results in a driving force to military coups in resource rich but poverty sticken countries.

economy, population, politics and religion are all so tightly intertwined and so hungry for growth. we know it cant continue yet we do seemingly nothing.

this is because the first and only option ever discussed is financial, but that only reinforces the structure which keeps this unsustainability in place.

sort of does my head in thinking about it...i dont see how anyone can justify having more than two children, i just dont see it as fair...i know nothing is fair.

Indeed. There is a whole branch of modern philosophy which explores the ethics of bringing ANY life in being, let alone more than two.
 
bringing things back to more local (ie australia) we need to start decentralising the major cities on the east coast & start building more sustainable satellite cities..

start by moving a few big government agencies out to regional towns to provide jobs and let them build from there...


and for those saying capitalism will cause the world to eat itself, i say bollocks... look around, we've never had it so good, and it will keep continuing this way...
 
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