Peak Oil and Drugs

[Gaz_hmmmm]

When crude oil peaks what if any drugs will stop being produced because of expense or rocket in price until the maker of which ever drug can't purchase crude oil/its derivative to make said drug?

Also I know veg' oil can be used as fuel and plastics can be made from Hemp, could their oil's or another plant based oil be used instead (Possibly increasing the price of said drugs) or no chance or are these oil's too far removed chemical structure wise?

 

[sekio]

Drug manufacturers don't make drugs out of crude oil. They make them out of commodity chemicals, which are much further downstream products than crude. Certain building blocks might be extracted from refinery streams but by and large much of the building blocks people would use to make drugs are either not present in oil or extracting them is more expensive than synthesis.

The bigger impact peak oil would have on drug prices, etc, would likely be the transportation costs. In general the chemical cost of a drug is pennies compared to the cost of warehousing, manufacturing, distribution, advertising, safety trials, etc.

 

[atara]

In fact, many of the limiting factors in preparations of common pharmaceuticals are plant-derived chemicals which are too difficult to synthesize from coal tar. This includes, e.g., shikimic acid (oseltamivir), 10-deacetylbaccatin (paclitaxel), and our old friends the ergot alkaloids (pergolide, lisuride, bromocryptine, hydergine). Repeated attempts to make these from crude oil tended to be difficult syntheses that wouldn't scale.

 

[Transform]

I think if it came down to it then the cracking of plastics and other hydrocarbon products would be able to produce the raw materials that oil does. The problems will come in generating the energy to do this without fossil fuels and transport/storage costs as sekio said.

 

[Gaz_hmmmm]

So learn to manufacture and/or stockpile is the answer?

 

[Hammilton]

No, smaller production facilities spread across the country will be more important. I think it'll make for more regional companies.