just think of the numbers, man.
I am. You interpret that—given so many chances for another Earth-like planet—intelligent life is inevitable, i.e.:
Infinite Monkey Theorem.
I interpret the opposite, that—given the lack of evidence despite seemingly high likelihood of intelligent life, perhaps the chances of sapient—
and thriving—extraterrestrial life is at least equal to the chances none exists. Maybe sometimes life doesn't evolve as much before dying from one of many possible mass extinction events. Maybe civilizations wipe themselves out through war or climate change, or they get hit by asteroids or solar flares…
It's also possible civilizations advanced beyond us millions of years ago, and we're in cosmic day care until we're older. Or maybe intelligent alien life just isn't that into us, lol.
Stephen Hawking opined we should not have broadcast a radio signal of human existence, reasoning that if intelligent aliens exist and indeed engage in interstellar travel, they might plan to enslave us while they suck our planet dry of natural resources and leave us to extinction in a used up nightmare shell of Earth.
125 billion x 1 billion = a WHOLE LOT of chances for life. I mean, it happened here, right?
Yes but that's false logic. How do we know it wasn't pure dumb luck that allowed intelligent life to happen, and that it's in fact still mind-bogglingly rare? Counting this singular case study on Earth is not enough sample size to know a thing like that. It's possible that it's more likely intelligent alien life does not exist yet and never has or will. Similarly, it's
possible a Flying Spaghetti Monster exists. Does that mean you believe in it? No of course not, but you can still think it's
possible since it's impossible to invalidate the notion completely.
unless you believe that almighty God said LET THERE BE LIGHT ON THIS PLANET ONLY! So if here, why not in at least one other place in that staggering multitude of stars?
Yeah maybe but let's see some evidence. Otherwise it's a specious claim.
I think that being able to see it for yourself before you believe it is a bit strange.
I think believing in a thing blindly is unwise and superstitious. And I don't mean to be argumentative or harsh. Truly I want to believe in aliens. But it doesn't change the fact that, to the best of our knowledge, there is no other sapient life in the knowable universe at this point. Maybe aliens are out there but we haven't figured out why it's so silent in our universe. But applying Occam's razor, the simplest explanation with the fewest assumptions is: we're all alone in the universe, and if not, alien life is perhaps too far away to matter during our lifetimes.
Also, wanting to see evidence is at the core of both science and law. I don't see how that's strange. Before you buy something from someone on, say, Craigslist or similar, don't you want to see the thing you're buying first, make sure it works, &c.?
You're right, how the fuck could we know? So why would you decide it's most likely that we're alone, when we've been looking for 60 years,
We've been looking for 60 years without finding anything and you wonder why I would think intelligent life might not exist beyond our planet? If it does, it's not at the same time as us, or at distances too great to cover. Seems plausible to me. Am I crazy?
and light and waves have only traveled as far as a handful of the nearest stars in this one little galaxy, since then?
Well many of those stars are billions of years older than our sun. This more than makes up for the time gap difference you're alluding to, I think. I didn't invent this theory, btw; it just makes the most sense.
To me, it's a matter of statistics. Pick a super low percentage above zero (you can't pick zero, because if you pick zero, then we don't exist, either). Unless you pick 1 / (125 billion x 1 billion), life will have to exist somewhere besides here.
That's not how probability works. You can speak to likelihoods, but it is a false conclusion to say "[extraterrestrial] life will
have to exist". It does not
have to exist… at least not in this universe. According to quantum mechanics and multiverse theory, every possible thing that
can exist in fact
does exist in some alternate reality universe, and this branches out, perhaps infinitely, but that's another discussion.
This whole thing isn't to say it matters beyond a thought exercise - it probably doesn't, because space is way too vast to travel. But you can still think about it.
Well that's what I was saying. If intelligent aliens exist, the technology to bridge the enormous distance gap between us is a technological undertaking probably not possible in our lifetime and for who knows how many generations after us?
That said, I also don't mind if people want to keep looking, even if it is risky in the sense of: who knows what we'll discover if we do discover intelligent alien life? Either way, it's fun to think about.
