Covid-19 Outbreak of new SARS-like coronavirus (Covid-19)

[birdup.snaildown]

@burn out

Clearly lockdowns can work. Look at Australia and New Zealand. I've said this to people before and they take a glance at A&NZ, but they don't get the full picture.

The Victorian outbreak was substantial and we completely reversed it in a relatively short period of time with a hard lockdown. There is no question. The data shows lockdowns work.

Having said all that - at this point - we should stop doing them. I can't do it any more. I'm losing my mind. The harm caused by imprisoning millions of people in their own homes is immeasurable.

I understand why you dislike lockdowns. Everybody dislikes them. I fucking hate them, but that doesn't mean they don't work.

Obviously you are going to reduce the transmission of a virus by stopping people interacting. The question is whether or not it is worth it.

At this point, I don't know.

But, then again, my grandmother is still alive and so are my parents.

I hadn't heard about anyone being fined or arrested for not wearing a mask

There was a guy in Australia that got fined because he travelled too far to get some fried chicken. He got in his car and drove to the chicken place wearing a mask. He didn't stop anywhere on the way. The cops stopped him and fined him up the ass. The fine was over $1,500.

(I realize you're talking about America. Just saying.)

 

[birdup.snaildown]

The latest poll shows 54% of Australians want to phase out lockdowns.

The government doesn't give a fuck.
This isn't a democracy.

 

[Jabberwocky]

The latest poll shows 54% of Australians want to phase out lockdowns.

The government doesn't give a fuck.
This isn't a democracy.

And 46% want to spend the rest of their lives locked up at home? The various governments do have plans to phase them out. Did the survey ask any useful questions about acceptable time horizons and what people would accept in terms of necessary caveats and conditions?

 

[birdup.snaildown]

Did the survey ask any useful questions about acceptable time horizons and what people would accept in terms of necessary caveats and conditions?

Does the Australian government provide useful information about acceptable time horizons, etc? (No, they don't.)

And 46% want to spend the rest of their lives locked up at home?

I know numerous people IRL that don't want to put any date on it. When pressed in conversation they get upset about it, like I'm being an asshole by suggesting we phase the lockdowns out by the end of the year.

I have to say: Australians are brainwashed.

It's like those sci-fi films where a character disappears, then they come back and they're different. It's spooky. I don't know if it's fear. Fear is optimistic. I think it's something much more sinister. I think the populations of certain (formerly) "free" countries are becoming indifferent to the very idea of freedom.

There is something seriously awry when people don't think independently and don't question the dictates of government.

I don't know about the survey. I want to believe what I want to believe. Maybe we're fucking doomed. I hope not.

 

[birdup.snaildown]

protest

I hate the idea of protest but eventually I will take a stand. I decided to officially dissolve my business yesterday. I'm a sole trader, so I won't make the statistics.

I often wonder how many people venomously arguing against conscientious COVID objectors are really negatively affected by the lockdowns?

I'm down maybe 40k at this point, and that is a lot of money for me.

I don't want people to be vaccinated, unless they want to be. If you want to be vaccinated, great. If you don't, I don't give a shit. Let's just move the fuck on.

You do your thing and I'll do mine.

If you are concerned about the virus, lock yourself down.

 

[Jen X]

I don't understand why people disbelieve science. This isn't new technology, they have been working with MNRA since Sars 1.
I have had my first shot and never felt anything.
Even if you're anti mask, wear one to protect others. People can be so selfish. I would feel awful if I killed grandma.

 

[birdup.snaildown]

if I killed grandma.

This bothers me. I've heard a lot of variations of it. People keep blurring the lines between murder and not containing a virus.

If that's murder, we murder people every year when we fail to wear masks to prevent transmission of the flu.

It's not murder.

After - say - six months of a vaccine being available, people have enough time to get vaccinated. If they're still afraid after they're vaccinated, they should isolate. It makes no sense for the entire world to isolate instead of a small group of people.

If aged care facilities fail to protect vulnerable people, they are responsible along with the government for failing to ensure citizens are protected. As for older people who live in their own homes and people with disabilities, the responsibility lies on the government and/or their support network.

I'm not responsible for killing my grandma if she's vaccinated and she happens to die from COVID.

Even if you're anti mask, wear one to protect others. People can be so selfish.

How often should I wear a mask? In what circumstances?

Don't call me selfish.

I don't understand why people disbelieve science.

People are wary of whether or not information is politically driven. The left blames the Trump administration (to some extent) for this. In my opinion, Trump exposed it as reality. You can't trust anyone these days. Everybody lies.

The more divided we become, the more we justify lying to serve our needs.

COVID-19 isn't a death sentence. It's a virus that is very dangerous for vulnerable citizens. Beyond that, it doesn't pose an enormous threat. That's what the science says, as far as I'm concerned... but, I could be wrong.

Like I said, I don't trust anyone.

 

[ions]

I think the government is weaponizing Corona and using it against it's citizens as something you need to fear.

 

[Cream Gravy?]

Hmph. Having lived in the Ozarks, it's no surprise to me that people are being ass-backwards about getting vaccinated. One of the most beautiful states I've ever seen was Arkansas, but the place was rife with white supremacists w/ Harrison being the KKK capital. Hard to feel sorry for them for dying b/c no vaccine... but also people get SHIT educations from the public schools there. I'd be in senior level classes in my undergrad, having to explain to Arkansan peers about high school level stuff... either I went to the best high school ever or their education just cuts off at like age 14 lol...

So it's kinda, sorta a bit of schadenfreude... feel bad for the innocents, the uneducated.... but people in states like this need to get their shit together.

 

[AutoTripper]

I hate the idea of protest but eventually I will take a stand. I decided to officially dissolve my business yesterday. I'm a sole trader, so I won't make the statistics.

I often wonder how many people venomously arguing against conscientious COVID objectors are really negatively affected by the lockdowns?

I'm down maybe 40k at this point, and that is a lot of money for me.

I don't want people to be vaccinated, unless they want to be. If you want to be vaccinated, great. If you don't, I don't give a shit. Let's just move the fuck on.

You do your thing and I'll do mine.

If you are concerned about the virus, lock yourself down.

Did you see the protest outside parliament above? I found it interesting to observe anyway.

 

[Jabberwocky]

It's truly tragic that people are dying because they didn't get vaccinated. However, I also can understand why someone would be hesitant to get it. The fact is that it's very new, and it hasn't been studied as much as other vaccinations yet. It's understandable that this would put a lot of people off.

I wish death and illness on noone, but I'm not that upset with the anti vaxx people anymore since currently 98% of all covid hospitalizations and deaths are among the unvaxxed.

At least they aren't hurting the greater public that much anymore anymore.

I can appreciate not trusting something that hasn't been tested, however at this point it has been tested billions of times and is proven to be safe and effective.

I feel like at this point there is no excuse not to get it (or at least a good excuse). Especially with the new variants.

I question everything, but the level of science denial and paranoia some of these people display is mind boggling.

Just my opinionated 2 cents

 

[alasdairm]

I want to hear an explanation from @alasdairm.
He said he knows why Hannity changed tune.

no i didn't.

i called out his complete 180 and then literally added that i wondered why.

if you want to know, you'd have to ask him.

alasdair

 

[TheLoveBandit]

Related, but American....







Unanimous (that means R+D) passing in Senate, yet blocked by House Dems....why?

 

[mal3volent]

RIP Rand Paul...

 

[burn out]

@burn out

Clearly lockdowns can work. Look at Australia and New Zealand. I've said this to people before and they take a glance at A&NZ, but they don't get the full picture.

The Victorian outbreak was substantial and we completely reversed it in a relatively short period of time with a hard lockdown. There is no question. The data shows lockdowns work.

Having said all that - at this point - we should stop doing them. I can't do it any more. I'm losing my mind. The harm caused by imprisoning millions of people in their own homes is immeasurable.

I understand why you dislike lockdowns. Everybody dislikes them. I fucking hate them, but that doesn't mean they don't work.

Obviously you are going to reduce the transmission of a virus by stopping people interacting. The question is whether or not it is worth it.

At this point, I don't know.

But, then again, my grandmother is still alive and so are my parents.



There was a guy in Australia that got fined because he travelled too far to get some fried chicken. He got in his car and drove to the chicken place wearing a mask. He didn't stop anywhere on the way. The cops stopped him and fined him up the ass. The fine was over $1,500.

(I realize you're talking about America. Just saying.)

I'm not basing my skepticism of lockdowns on the fact that I don't like them, although of course my hatred of lockdowns biases me toward skepticism.

However, one example of a lockdown working is hardly proof of their efficacy. Lockdowns did not work here in the USA and they did not work in many other countries. Look at Peru, longest lockdown in the world and yet they also had one of the biggest outbreaks in the world. Same thing in the state I live in, we had one of the longest lockdowns and most restrictions in the nation and this spring we had one of the biggest outbreaks where states that had been open for months were fairing better.

It's actually not as obviously as you claim that you will reduce the transmission of a virus by stopping people interacting. If that were true, we wouldn't even be having this debate. The data would be unequivocal in favor of lockdowns.

Keep in mind a lot of people still interact with each other during lockdowns, at least how we do them here in the USA. It's true that if you truly kept every single individual isolated then lockdowns should be highly effective, unless our entire understanding of how diseases spread is false. But that's not how we did lockdowns here. Quite a significant number of people were considered "essential workers" and had to go to work as normal. They then went home and interacted with their families. Grocery stores were open, hardware stores,were open, restaurants were open for takeout, doctors offices and hospitals were open and after the first few months all subsequent lockdowns were really only partial lockdowns. For example, we'd have restaurants closed but bowling alleys open, or restaurants open but only 50% capacity, or restaurants have to close at 10 pm. I challenge you to look at the data for lockdowns (at least here in the USA) with a skeptical eye and you will see how ineffective they have been. You can say that's because we didn't do them right, but that's the point. Don't adopt a half assed, ineffective and immensely harmful policy and then insist everyone comply with it. Either do it right, or don't do it at all. I think transmission was already too widespread here when we locked down the first time. It might have been different in your country.

Then there is the fact that people assume that if for example you reduce your contacts by 50%, you will have a 50% less chance of catching the virus. However the math doesn't work out like that because you only need to be exposed once to catch it. This is why all the partial restrictions are so ineffective in my opinion. You have to do truly stay apart for lockdown to work. Not, we will go to a restaurant but only at 50% capacity, or we will go to a BLM protest but we won't go to a concert. It doesn't work like that but that's what people did here.

So that's why I am skeptical of all the claims the government makes about the efficacy of their lockdown policies. I have firsthand experience of them not working how they were supposed to, despite being beaten over the head for months for being skeptical.

 

[birdup.snaildown]

There isn't just one example. There's a dozen examples in Australia and a couple of examples in New Zealand, plus countless other countries. The problem with your argument is you're comparing apples and oranges. As you said, USA lockdowns have failed. I didn't say otherwise. I said lockdowns can work.

that's not how we did lockdowns here

Indeed. You fucked them up. That doesn't mean they don't work. If North Korea attempts to land on the moon and repeatedly fails that doesn't mean moon landings "don't work". Clearly it is possible to land on the moon.

I am an essential worker, but that didn't stop Victorian lockdowns from working.

Then there is the fact that people assume that if for example you reduce your contacts by 50%, you will have a 50% less chance of catching the virus. However the math doesn't work out like that because you only need to be exposed once to catch it.

That doesn't make any sense.

 

[birdup.snaildown]

literally

My bad. I assumed the tone was sarcastic.

 

[burn out]

There isn't just one example. There's a dozen examples in Australia and a couple of examples in New Zealand, plus countless other countries. The problem with your argument is you're comparing apples and oranges. As you said, USA lockdowns have failed. I didn't say otherwise. I said lockdowns can work.

I never denied that they can work. When I call myself a skeptic, I mainly mean I am skeptical of the claims made by lockdown proponents and of course most of the ones I have been exposed to are in the USA. I find it's very often the case that when government (or even an individual) attempts to do something, it doesn't work out as planned either for reasons unforeseen or foreseen. I think people don't want to acknowledge how impractical lockdowns are and how the costs outweigh the benefits. If they worked in your country, great I concede they may have some value but I remain in the position of skeptic toward the practice. I want to see the evidence not only that they work but they are worth the costs. Here in the USA they didn't work well at all so the question of whether they were worth the immense cost is an obvious no, however most lockdown proponents still won't admit they were wrong...about anything.

That doesn't make any sense

What doesn't make sense? Look at it like this. Let's say you roll a 12 sided dye every day. What are your chances of rolling a four? Now let's say you only role the 12 sided dye every other day. Are your chances of rolling a four, over the course of the next week or within a month 50% less? No, because you only need one bad role to get the four and that nullifies all the good roles. So in both cases, your chances of rolling the four approach 100% as time passes and the number of roles increases.

 

[burn out]

There isn't just one example. There's a dozen examples in Australia and a couple of examples in New Zealand, plus countless other countries. The problem with your argument is you're comparing apples and oranges. As you said, USA lockdowns have failed. I didn't say otherwise. I said lockdowns can work.

I never denied that they can work. When I call myself a skeptic, I mainly mean I am skeptical of the claims made by lockdown proponents and of course most of the ones I have been exposed to are in the USA. I find it's very often the case that when government (or even an individual) attempts to do something, it doesn't work out as planned either for reasons unforeseen or foreseen. I think people don't want to acknowledge how impractical lockdowns are and how the costs outweigh the benefits. If they worked in your country, great I concede they may have some value but I remain in the position of skeptic toward the practice. I want to see the evidence not only that they work but they are worth the costs. Here in the USA they didn't work well at all so the question of whether they were worth the immense cost is an obvious no, however most lockdown proponents still won't admit they were wrong...about anything.

That doesn't make any sense

What doesn't make sense? Look at it like this. Let's say you roll a 12 sided dye every day. What are your chances of rolling a four? Now let's say you only role the 12 sided dye every other day. Are your chances of rolling a four, over the course of the next week or within a month 50% less? No, because you only need one bad role to get the four and that nullifies all the good roles. So in both cases, your chances of rolling the four approach 100% as time passes and the number of roles increases.

 

[birdup.snaildown]

What doesn't make sense? Look at it like this. Let's say you roll a 12 sided dye every day. What are your chances of rolling a four? Now let's say you only role the 12 sided dye every other day. Are your chances of rolling a four, over the course of the next week or within a month 50% less? No, because you only need one bad role to get the four and that nullifies all the good roles. So in both cases, your chances of rolling the four approach 100% as time passes and the number of roles increases.

Lockdown doesn't mean you reduce contacts by 50% (how would that even work?) so the analogy doesn't really fit. You can do a lot to actively avoid getting infected. It isn't inevitable.

I think people don't want to acknowledge how impractical lockdowns are and how the costs outweigh the benefits. If they worked in your country, great I concede they may have some value but I remain in the position of skeptic toward the practice. I want to see the evidence not only that they work but they are worth the costs.

I 100% agree with all that. They worked in our country to contain the virus, but that isn't the only measure of success.