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Covid-19 Outbreak of new SARS-like coronavirus (Covid-19)

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Rather than just telling me my maths is wrong, perhaps you could actually do your own and show me exactly where it's wrong rather than just saying "it's wrong".

This is the second reply in the last couple days that I dunno how to respond to because it doesn't seem to clearly say anything except "you're wrong". With seemingly no alternative proposition, or even clear explanation as to the specifics of what's wrong with mine.

I've reversed my position on bluelight before. I'm willing to hear well thought out alternatives or reasoning. And occasionally I even switch to them.

But just saying "no you're wrong". Isn't going to accomplish that.
 
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Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma donates 500,000 testing kits and one million masks to America

BBC | 16 Mar 2020

Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma has sent the first shipment of surgical masks and coronavirus test kits to the US.

The Chinese billionaire tweeted two pictures of the pallets of goods being loaded on to a plane in Shanghai.

Earlier this month he said he would give 500,000 testing kits and one million masks to America.

Mr. Ma is also sending consignments of medical supplies to Europe as he called for international cooperation efforts to combat the pandemic.

In his first tweet, Asia's richest person posted photos of a China Eastern Airlines jet being loaded with boxes of coronavirus test kits and face masks as they were shipped to the US.

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It comes after the Jack Ma Foundation and the Alibaba Foundation last week announced that they had prepared 500,000 testing kits and 1 million masks to be sent to America.

They also said that they had already donated supplies to other countries including Japan, South Korea, Italy, Iran and Spain, with two million protective masks pledged for distribution across Europe.

The first consignment of 500,000 masks and other medical supplies such as test kits, which was destined for Italy, arrived in Belgium on Friday.

He joins other high-profile technology executives in pledging support for coronavirus research and disease prevention.

Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, who is the world's second-richest person, has announced that the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation would give $100m to help efforts to stop the spread of the virus.

Chinese tech giants, including Tencent, ride-hailing company Didi Chuxing, and TikTok owner ByteDance, have all pledged money and resources to fight the coronavirus outbreak.

www.bbc.com

Alibaba's Ma donates coronavirus test kits to US

In his first tweet the billionaire said 500,000 testing kits and one million masks were going to the US.
www.bbc.com
 
JessFR said:
I've reversed my position on bluelight before. I'm willing to hear well thought out alternatives or reasoning. And occasionally I even switch to them.

But just saying "no you're wrong". Isn't going to accomplish that.
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no math critique is an oblique reference to your coal calculations. Which you still don't get.

I am sadly close to giving up with you. it is not me it is you.
 
A pandemic might not be able to be controlled, but the illusion of a pandemic can (they changed the definition of pandemic in 2009) and the response to said "pandemic" can be also.

All of these global reactions and counter-measures only make sense if you believe that this is a legitimately dangerous pandemic - which the evidence so far doesn't support.
 
novaveritas said:
no math critique is an oblique reference to your coal calculations. Which you still don't get.

I am sadly close to giving up with you. it is not me it is you.
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You haven't actually said anything. It all just boils back down to "your wrong".

I just complaint about it and your reply is still nothing more then "no you're wrong".

If you're not going to make an actual argument of your own. Please by all means hurry it along and give up. Because just saying "no you're wrong" is not something I can argue against.
 
if containment is the strategy,

isolating one infected individual is much more than 1000 times more effective than isolating 1000 people without the disease.
whether you choose to isolate vulnerable individuals or not is an option that does not change the above truth.

forest fire analogy, put out the new fires when they are small don't cut firebreaks and hope the fire doesn't jump them.

because when the fire is out and you cut firebreaks you have destroyed a lot of trees for no reason.

that is all you have to understand. If you are capable of understanding this. You are giving me no signs of understanding the crux here, Instead you are game playing.

Governments are incompetent and incapable, but that will not stop them claiming credit for the sun rising each morning due to their comprehensive sun raising strategy and policies.
Right now testing availability in every western country is being held up by incompetent self serving bureaucrats and captured medicines regulators.

since you are so keen on math, this is one back of an envelope calculation on the lockdown containment strategy
herd immunity and viral slowdown will happen when 20-40% of people are not susceptable

one scenario:
40% infected x approx 10% who hospital level sick = 4% population going to be hospital level sick at some point. Of the 10% who get real sick maybe 50% need ventilator support so 2% of the population could need ventilator support at some point, there are roughly 12 -20 staffed ventilators per 100 000 population so 0.012 or 0.020 %, slow burn infection needs to be 166 times longer to avoid overwhelming the ventilator capacity, so with a average ventilator lock up of say 10 days, at least 1660 days, this has to stretch out to 4 and 1/2 years to avoid overwhelming the capacity without overshooting and crashing the system or undershooting and unneccesarily prolonging the damage, you can play with the numbers using infection attack rates or passage duration or whatever but it still ends up being many many months. During which capacity is taken from other ill people and operations are delayed possibly fatally. Oh and influenza has not gotten the memo about not circulating in Aus this winter, it is going to appear too.

that is the math I alluded to earlier and didn't post because it can be taken in a doomy negative way, math that you should have calculated yourself.
so heavy prolonged lockdown is not going to work, the strategy has to be test isolate and maintain as much activity as possible.

to return to the forest fire analogy, if you stamp out the disease in your country there remains a lot of standing timber and the burning embers will come in from outside and relight the fire.

I expect you now to nit pick the numbers, but I guarantee I am not off by 3 orders of magnitude but I doubt you will get it either. I am done with you on this subject.

put up your own calculations if you like.
 
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Actually I do see the mistake I made earlier. And I wish you'd stop calling it a math error. Cause that's what caused me to write it off last time. It's not a math error. Or at least the error I've identified and am assuming you did as well isn't. Or isn't what I'd call a math error in any case.

It's an error in the input. Not the math. That might seem like splitting hairs but between that, and other confusing shit in your reply like rounding errors, which I'm still not sure what you're referring too. That's why I didn't pay it much attention because it wasn't initially clear to me what your complaint was. And your post made it very unclear to me specifically what error you were trying to point out.

Regardless, I read your post again, and while I'd still say a lot of it is very unclear what it's referring to, going over it again now I did spot the mistake I assume you're talking about. I'm reviewing it now. If you did identify an error other than the coal energy input, I'd appreciate it if you'd let me know, but if you did it'd be much easier if you could try and explain it in a way that perhaps attempts to be a little clearer and to the point. Cause most of this could have been avoided if you'd just said as little as "you appear to have misread the coal energy number" . Then I could have just gone straight to that and not wasted time looking for other math errors that don't appear to exist"

I'll go over the rest of your reply here a bit later.
 
you could have just read what I wrote in the anthropgenic climate change thread where it is pretty blatently outlined but you dismissed it because of your own hubris.
your coal calculation is a bit off too, maybe you need some better coal
1 ton coal approx 3.6 GJ therefore 1 ton coal approx equal to 8 MWh
at 39% thermal to electrical efficiency that is 3.12 MWh per ton coal
so 220 tons is 684 MWhr,
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so just how clear do I have to be? quit with the semantic pedantry.

I have nothing to discuss with you on this thread topic until you show me some signs you get what I am talking about and have absorbed it, not neccesarily that you agree but that you understand what I am saying. otherwise I am just wasting my time and I really do have better things to do.
 
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I believe what you're saying is that by extending the duration to conserve the supply of medical resources, that's a period of time where there's not enough medical resources for other people.

Basically trading a saturated medical system in the short term for a saturated one in the long term.

What I'm failing to see is how the people who could die from delayed or insufficient treatment, could possibly offset the number of people more likely to die in the shorter term when the medical system is far further stretched beyond its capacity.

It's still a sum total of medical resources needed. There is likely to be a sudden surge of people requiring those resources. By prolonging it a lot more of that same number of people eventually infected are likely to live. Because they aren't all sick at the same time.

And both approaches have already been tried before and by and large it appears that fewer people have died by prolonging the duration. Do you have any real data to support that that's not the case?
 
Novaveritas,

Your error is not the math but the algorithm. The key to keeping people alive is keeping the spread below the level that yields the quantity of cases that will exceed the critical care capabilities of a given health network. If the pspread is rapid, we will have so many cases that require ICU care and ventilators so that those patients that exceed the capacity are virtually condemned to death by lack of sufficient care. It is critical to slow the spread so that the load on these facilities does not exceed supply.

Please refer to this video:






No-one is denying you your right to express your opinion, but please keep it to the topic at hand; not how you perceive anyone's character or ability. We will, of course, grant you the same freedom of expression.
 
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So this is pretty important information. The coronavirus panic is directly linked to the global food shortages. Watch till the end for solutions:

 
White_Rose said:
Novaveritas,

Your error is not the math but the algorithm. The key to keeping people alive is keeping the spread below the level that yields the quantity of cases that will exceed the critical care capabilities of a given health network. If the pspread is rapid, we will have so many cases that require ICU care and ventilators so that those patients that exceed the capacity are virtually condemned to death by lack of sufficient care. It is critical to slow the spread so that the load on these facilities does not exceed supply.

Please refer to this video:






No-one is denying you to express your opinion, but please keep it to the topic at hand, not how you perceive anyone's character or ability. We will, of course, grant you the same freedom of expression.
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I humbly request that you and others stop putting words in my mouth or twisting my position, so you can feel righteous smug and superior with your virtue signalling nonsense and groupthink. The virus doesn't care, and I am getting to the point where I don't either. Don't attack the messenger, don't take me for a fool who doesn't understand what you are saying. I do and I actually did various calculations on various scenarios and calculated what spare capacity was available in various countries, and what the maximum short term capacity was.

I am not and never have suggested doing nothing. all I have said, and said repeatedly that heavy handed lock down and quarantine is counterproductive and is just kicking the can down the road.
to take the forest fire analogy, a lot of people here think it is wise to cut down every tree to stop a forest fire, it will work but you won't have any forest left.

Read what I wrote, understand the calculation I am not the only person to have made these calculations. Understand that this is not a short term thing of a few weeks lockdown, the can kicking strategy has to go on a long time because there is fundamentally no spare staffed ventilator capacity in any country. If you degrade your manufacturing distribution and health provision by lockdown then you have less and less duration of function and you start killing other people of other things.

If your best can kicking strategy is the early heavy lockdown strategy, it is is dumb and counterproductive and that is what I am saying and have been saying and what you are willfully ignoring, it is vital to keep as many things going generally as possible, it is vital not to degrade general capacity before you have to. Closing borders and schools and Lockdown of everybody is a tool that can be used but it is not efficient and it has serious consequences, and at the end of it there is still a lot forest to burn and a lot of sparks and flying embers ready for it to reignite.

Identifying and Isolating infected people is a better strategy for controlling the numbers of infection, which means that you have to test, it also means you have to short circuit the approval of tests as an imperfect test is better than no test. China is moving to the test and isolate strategy South Korea has too Taiwan too. IIRC South Korea did not lock down large populations at all.

asiatimes.com

Why are Korea’s Covid-19 death rates so low?

South Korea has the dubious distinction of suffering the second-highest number of Covid-19 infections after China – but can also boast the lowest death ratio among countries with significant …
asiatimes.com asiatimes.com
 
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Aww... Just over a year ago I was under 30 years old. Instead now I'm gonna die. That's how it works right? :p

Seriously getting older sucks.
 
regarding toilet paper: I'm pretty glad I switched to the asian way of dealing with my butt quite a while ago, so the tp drama is just mildly amusing to me ;)
 
JessFR said:
Aww... Just over a year ago I was under 30 years old. Instead now I'm gonna die. That's how it works right? :p

Seriously getting older sucks.
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You're complaining because you're 30 y/o ?


Wow, I'm speechless !

I'm in a much more deadly group. Wish I was 30 y/o, LOL !!!!!
 
COVID-19 is God coming out as Bernie or Bust. it's cheaper, easier, and more convenient than guillotines. thanks to the boomer remover, either let us implement Medicare For All or we'll do exactly as you wish and do it over your dead bodies
 
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