What annoys me is how obvious it is that politicians aren't doing enough to avoid catching it to start with. Which means they're interacting with many people. Which means they could be infecting many more before they become symptomatic.
They keep saying shit like that they will prevent spreading it by doing their interactions over internet link.. Why weren't they doing that already?
cmon you are just wanting to see flamboyant symbolic but ineffectual responses. The pols are as bad as anyone else.
You have shown you are very keen on symbolic extreme isolation, otherwise known as extreme can kicking responses.
Like it or not for equilibrium there needs to be roughly 40% non susceptible. 40% is 40%, area under the curve is the same whether it is flat or steep. Heavy handed isolation and movement restriction measures do not allow this to occur without repeated spikes, the biggest spike one incubation period after releasing restrictions when capability has already degraded. Even a relatively low force of infection will take out all the ICU availability. which is what? perhaps in total 10 per 100 000 population, 0.01%. It is not a good idea to take out all ICU capacity for months on end, the longer it goes on the more staff get sick the more the supply chains fall apart and so on and so the capabilities degrade further. Heavy handed lock down early in the exponential phase just stores infection pressure, but it has other serious consequences.
This is not SARS, there is cryptic and asymptomatic transmission so the SARS strategies do not work. Because you have reservoirs.
if you think that severe heavy handed lock down is the only expert backed opinion you would be very wrong, there is simply no evidence that banning football games, concerts or closing schools is in any way effective, and curfew is also ineffective over the longer term. Mainly because you have to end it at some point, when? 6 months a year? when?
If you want to educate yourself I suggest you read what Patrick Vallance (UK science advisor, my one time boss who at the time was one of the few fighting for new antibiotic research so one of the good guys in my book) or Michael Osterholm (independent public health expert stateside) have to say on the subject, My position is probably right, you are probably wrong, but actually it doesn't matter because you are not making my strategic decisions.
I don't know why I bother trying to communicate this, because you have shown an inability to grasp some basic biological concepts or I haven't explained them clearly enough, but I figure it is either me or you, either I am obviously failing to communicate the concepts clearly or you are unable to grasp the concepts or are not open minded enough to visualize the possible scenarios going backwards from the end game, which is endemic seasonal disease which attenuates over time.
I don't need you to agree with me, per se, but I am wondering if the failing is I am not speaking a suitable language??
I can post the numbers and calculations that lead to some troubling conclusions about the required duration of capacity preserving strategies but I think people will take them the wrong way and I don't want to be irresponsible. if you think 2 week lock downs will work you are dreaming, same goes for 2 month lock downs.
so last try.. good luck
