So in terms of resources to find out whether or not tarot is real... I don't really know what to tell you. Asking what is "real" is such a loaded question. If you choose a single card from tarot over and over, you can still explain it as random chance since there are a limited number of cards. However, I've seen much more fascinating things. Last year I was doing readings with a friend for fun. I chose the same 7 cards three times after thoroughly shuffling the deck each, and then out of refusal to believe, I asked my friend to shuffle the deck and pick my 7 cards for me. She picked the same ones. I'd like to see Randi explain something like that.
Probability happens whether or not the numbers are big or small. Rare events with low probability
have to happen sometimes, or they would be impossible and not just rare. The universe is a big place, after all. There's also built in pressure from your dopamine circuitry to ascribe meaning and reward to unexpected events.
An example: say there's a country-wide lottery in China, where all 2-3 billion or so people get a ticket. Assuming a normal random distribution and no political corruption (ha-ha), if you look at the chance of any one individual winning, it is nonexistent at best. But still someone must win the lottery, so one of those chances will prove true despite its low probability. The guy who won would probably feel very lucky!
If you told me your friend draws the same seven cards every time she uses a Tarot deck, I'd be impressed. Otherwise I ascribe this kind of stuff to Random Chance and try not to read too much meaning into it, like the time our class found a doppelganger of one of our students at the amusement park, who found it humorous that he was being corraled with a school he never knew...
(Also: re: deck shuffling, I've read rumblings that most people don't shuffle cards half as well as they think they do. I personally think humans are
shit at randomisation, which is why we invented radioactivity-based RNGs - or lavalamp RNGs!)
As for James Randi, the parameters of his test have been debunked by numerous professionals both scientific and non, as well as paranormal researchers. He sets the bar so high that psychics must essentially have an 80-100% accuracy rate or he will declare them frauds.
Nobody lets high jumpers into the Olympics if they can only do a high jump once or twice and 90%+ of their jumps fail. Likewise I think the bar should be set really high for "psychic activity" to exclude just this sort of probability manipulation... if you can't reliably execute your psychic effect, is it really "psychic" or just an advanced form of situational awareness spliced with dumb luck?
I also think the MKULTRA program, and to an extent CoS would have done a lot better in their, uhm, dealings with people, if there really were psychic activities. The Scilons sure try hard enough, but yelling at ashtrays to move them with sheer will still seems futile in this day and age, even after the US Government decided they were just kooks.
