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age of oil = age of innocence?

captainballs

Bluelighter
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
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we are on the eve of a transformational part of human history that we are not really prepared for, and that is the end of oil being readily available for the demands of the population it has been a major factor in growing.

the availability of oil has affected all of us in how we personally feel about economic reality. There is this innocent idea that human innovation will endure, that things will continue to get better. my personal view is quite the opposite: that a nation or people flooded with easily available energy to build their reality upon will collapse into a barbarism to hold onto that reality if it is forced out of their hands by scarcity.

I picture us sitting on a mountain of economic and social growth spurred by oil, able to look down upon history and judge from a perspective of relative cleanliness or innocence. We are able to look back at Nazi Germany, for instance, and identify personality disorders and economic devastation as the causes of large psychotic movements. the problem is that we really don't think we we are capable of doing it again, except worse. when the one resource that is the essential building block of our reality runs out.

if you live on a farm, you ration the shit out of your water because no one's pumping electricity out to your county's irrigation system. If you're lucky you live alone.

If you're an insurance salesman living in the suburbs in America, you wonder what the fuck the President is going to do about it. It's not that the infrastructure isn't there to provide energy needs to everyone, it's just that the meaning of life changes when you are working only for the right to buy enough energy to transport yourself to work the next day. Subsistence farmers have experience here, we don't.

What we do have, however, is a powerful and calculating military and a history of preserving the idea of "divine right" through global imperialism. So without going on too much further, I fail to see how we're going to avoid the moral problem of taking a political leadership role in deciding who is going to die and how they are going to die from a lack of power over their population's energy source. I'm afraid that we've developed, as a nation, a fairly democratic political system. for this reason, we will be able to share the responsibility in the decision-making process and feel personally, for once, that we have something to do with problems like starvation and genocide.

I guess, as an American, I am feeling the growing pains that our nation is going through. we haven't really been pushed too many times, but when we are pushed we tally the number of lives that would be taken given different options. When forced into a global power play, we have proved that we are capable of hitting the red button and living with it. And I think that we'll be forced to hit it again and again during the coming oil crisis by self-interest.

make no mistake, we will get the oil - every last drop. but I think that the population control decisions and human suffering as a consequence will be greater in scale than anything we have seen in the past. What's worse, is that we will go through with whatever it takes to preserve the lifestyle afforded by oil while we lose that innocence that is needed to really appreciate it and enjoy it like we used to. ignorance is bliss, basically, and I don't see how we're going to preserve it.

so, are you optimistic, pessimistic, or realistic? do you have a different opinion about what impact the oil crisis will have on economic behavior, when we really know that it's the end-game? Or, do you believe in technological alternatives, alternative extraction techniques, or human ingenuity trumping survival instinct? i believe things will get bad - real bad.
 
Im one of those optimistic types that believes alternative sources of energy will eventually replace fossil fuels entirely, leaving humanity to look back at the primitive days when we burned things like oil for energy. This isn't to say that we won't go through a period of panic when oil reserves start running dry, but I wouldnt go so far as to predict global barbarism. Atleast not here, or in the wealthier nations that have the means to invest in alternative energy sources.I think we're going to see a major revolution in energy production once the price of fossil fuels surpasses that of clean energy. Im young and perhaps naive but I have faith in human ingenuit.
 
were we innocent when we built our global economy on a finite resource?

or were we dumb, like how in the 50s cheap oil hooked us like free crack to big cars and suburbs.
 
were we innocent when we built our global economy on a finite resource?

or were we dumb, like how in the 50s cheap oil hooked us like free crack to big cars and suburbs.

Innocence is a combination of being 'in the moment" enough to be frivolous, but ignorant as to the ultimate consequences (and these two things feed off one another).

I'm scared of what kind of world we will be forced to live in when everything is military-resource based. I think any time period where we can ignore this element of politics is a time of innocence, as I don't see any major plans to deal with the interim period between oil and something new (a new energy structure or technological change) even though we are rapidly advancing toward that point with wanton abandon.

I read somewhere that during a time like this, when reality is being threatened at such a base level, that people rise up and demand dictators to lead them down difficult and inhumane courses, ironically for the sake of saving society.
 
so, are you optimistic, pessimistic, or realistic? do you have a different opinion about what impact the oil crisis will have on economic behavior, when we really know that it's the end-game? i believe things will get bad - real bad.

Realistic - that means I agree with pretty much everything you wrote - excepting that I'd have used the term "first world" as opposed to the "America" you used.
I think that island nations will fare better than continental nations due to access to the sea for transporting large cargo & generating energy, higher rainfall giving drinking water & some hydro electric, regular ocean wind giving electric & believe it or not a return to sailing boats. Soon fossil fuel energy will be so expensive that it will be kept for military use only, and yes it'll be used in an attempt to secure other resources or dispose of the threat to the resources we hold. Britain ought to wake up & start mining coal again if it's serious about cutting its budget deficit and dealing with unemployment.
Yes it'll all turn to shit & killing your neighbour won't be considered anything out of the ordinary.
The way forward is by pricing goods & services by calorific value, in that way your society will make itself more efficient & thus will suffer less than those who continue down the cul de sac of endless free energy.
 
How much oil is left? Will we really run out? I have been hearing this all my life. Can you say propaganda?
 
Not enough to sustain the capitalist dream of continued expansion & that is where the problem lies because without the possibility for continued expansion & profit the whole system will fail to deal effectively with the fact that we are energy poorer. We need to think radically to get ahead of the game. I do believe the oil is running out - at least the easily & cheaply producible oil which is essentially the same thing. There's supposed to be huge amounts of gold in seawater but it isn't viable to extract it thus it's of no real use.
Propaganda for what ?
 
I wish I could have such optimism in the stock markets. With any luck maybe there will be a defense budget plan with some paired scare tactic and some lucky company will get to engineer the project free of charge. Short of that it seems we're headed toward a predictable path.
 
1.) I think the future of oil in America depends a great deal on how rapidly oil prices increase. In my op, a fast rise in oil prices will be worse in the short term, but better in the long run, and vice-versa for a slow rise.

Rapid rise in oil price: This will put serious inflationary pressure on the economy at a time when it's already sluggish; if it were bad enough it could even cause a double-dip. However, it would also greatly intensify the push for alternative energy sources and more efficient use of current ones (hybrid or electric cars, rapid rail, etc.) that would be ultimately beneficial.

Slow rise in oil price: Better in the short term, but will exert little market or public pressure for alternative energy sources; not only will people adapt to higher prices, but higher prices will make the exploitation of resources like oil shale and tar sands more attractive cost-wise. There will be little change in oil demand, and it (and other fossil fuels, for that matter) will remain the soup du jour for many decades.

2.) Am I an optimist or pessimist? As in many things, I'm a short-term pessimist, but a long-term optimist. In the short term, we'll suffer real pain and contraction from living in a society that's been built on cheap commodity prices; getting out of that paradigm will be both expensive and very lengthy, and perhaps not finished in our generation. In the long run, though, I believe green energy is an idea whose time has come, and much as we weaned ourselves off wood-burning in favor of coal, and coal in favor of oil, that oil (for energy use, anyway) must slowly give ground to solar, geothermal, biodiesel, etc., though it will never go away completely. If it means we're doing more in 50 years using 25% less oil (just to throw a number out there), that's nothing to sniff at.
 
Fuck it man if this shit happens while im still alive im going to move to an island my own island that i claim for free, and anyone who wants to come can come, but ya have to be NAKED...titties out atleast. And zero tolerance for cash transactions on the island, everything is everyones

All i am bringing is like a TON of weed and SEEDS(the 2,000 lb will last until harvest time), box of lighters, lifetime supply of rolling papers, a pipe for when i run out of papers, SOme sort of salt-freswater desalinisation shit, a guitar, a Gun for hunting food, fishing pole, some kinda boat, knife, maybe a few clothes to protect to sunburn at first but ill prolly get immune after a while so ill live naked(almost i dont want a sunburnt dick), and maybe some poppy seeds....in case i get hurt like tom hanks did in castaway with the whole dental operaitoin lol.

Thats all I need to start the new world order...Nothing but chillin on the beatch smokin and smokin reefer. Ill just chill out in the shade of the ganja field or maybe ill just be........
Sittin on the dock of the bay, watchin the tide roll away, smokin on some chronick blunts, wastin time%)
 
I would think they will find something else, even if it is BABY BLOOD the people in power, in any country, not just america will have oil if it means no one is left on this earth but them:|
 
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