StoneHappyMonday
Bluelighter
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- May 10, 2001
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The more I read on CEP, the easier I find it to understand McCarthyism. It's never really gone away has it.
2016 American Presidential Campaign
- Thread starter Bardeaux
- Start date
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drug_mentor
Bluelight Crew
Bernie Sanders has now officially conceded the Democratic nomination and endorsed Hillary Clinton for President.
Last edited:
aside, why do you insist on spelling names oddly like this - do you think it's going to stop the c.i.a. from getting you?
alasdair
fabriclondon
Bluelighter
aside, why do you insist on spelling names oddly like this - do you think it's going to stop the c.i.a. From getting you?
alasdair
lmao!!!!
Jabberwocky
Frumious Bandersnatch
#selloutsanders
Hahha seriously though, a berie supporter who votes for Killary is like a rape victim asking for a second round in the ass.
i don't think politicians running against members of their own party to become nominated then turning around and supporting their ertswhile opponents against a candidate from another party is 'selling out'.
bernie thought he was a better choice than hillary for the democratic nomination but thinks she's a better choice than trump for the presidency. it's hardly doublethink...
depending on who you choose to believe, the number of bernie supporters who will end up voting for hillary may be higher than some people hoped or believed: Eighty-five percent of Sanders supporters intend to vote for Clinton
alasdair
bernie thought he was a better choice than hillary for the democratic nomination but thinks she's a better choice than trump for the presidency. it's hardly doublethink...
depending on who you choose to believe, the number of bernie supporters who will end up voting for hillary may be higher than some people hoped or believed: Eighty-five percent of Sanders supporters intend to vote for Clinton
alasdair
StoneHappyMonday
Bluelighter
- Joined
- May 10, 2001
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- 18,084
Somehow your attempt at metaphor (maybe you shouldn't try?) says more about you than it does about...whatever the fuck it is you're trying to say.
Jabberwocky
Frumious Bandersnatch
Chill, I saw it on /r/The_Donald and thought it was funny. Surely you're a fan of that sub?
SKL
Bluelight Crew
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- 14,632
The only thing did could possibly shake up politics via electoral means is some kind of a red blue coalition which had reached a truce to maintain status quo on issues surrounding identity. The problem is that identity being so fundamental and ingrained it really lies at the heart of so many issues that people may to be very important if not the most to them. I personally would have trouble agreeing to such a compromise and well I'd hope the liberal, who's had many more victories in this Arena of late, would be able to do so I doubt that as well. The Establishment knows very well how to manipulate us and indeed with things which are very important, subjectively or objectively. If we put them aside and focused on less emotionally salient structural subject like campaign finance and closely held capitalization of media, there might be hope.
The rape joke, as they tend to be, is incredibly poor taste but is punchy and it's point well taken. The thing is most of these voters are either taken in by identitarianism as I mentioned above and/or they are not sophisticated enough to realize how much of the seeds of the present socioeconomic malaise were sown during the Clinton years is often remembered as a time of (at least relative) peace and economic prosperity.
The rape joke, as they tend to be, is incredibly poor taste but is punchy and it's point well taken. The thing is most of these voters are either taken in by identitarianism as I mentioned above and/or they are not sophisticated enough to realize how much of the seeds of the present socioeconomic malaise were sown during the Clinton years is often remembered as a time of (at least relative) peace and economic prosperity.
any thoughts on the november result?
it's a long way to go and polls can be informative and misleading. depending on what you read i see a spectrum of polls from clinton -2 to +12 percentage points for the popular vote.
but looking at the electoral map, it's just hard to see a scenario in which trump wins the election. he's talking confidently about winning states like washington, oregon, new jersey, michigan and illinois. he's even talked about winning new york and california.
fivethirtyeight.com was a very accurate predictive resource last election. here are the percentage chances that site gives trump of winning the states i have mentioned:
washington 10.8%
oregon 16.7%
new jersey 12%
michigan 12.6%
illinois 4.7%
new york 2%
california 2%
can he win states like these? what does your electoral map look like if you have trump winning?
alasdair
it's a long way to go and polls can be informative and misleading. depending on what you read i see a spectrum of polls from clinton -2 to +12 percentage points for the popular vote.
but looking at the electoral map, it's just hard to see a scenario in which trump wins the election. he's talking confidently about winning states like washington, oregon, new jersey, michigan and illinois. he's even talked about winning new york and california.
fivethirtyeight.com was a very accurate predictive resource last election. here are the percentage chances that site gives trump of winning the states i have mentioned:
washington 10.8%
oregon 16.7%
new jersey 12%
michigan 12.6%
illinois 4.7%
new york 2%
california 2%
can he win states like these? what does your electoral map look like if you have trump winning?
alasdair
David Wooderson
Bluelighter
Awe Shnap!!!!
[h=1]Poll Finds Emails Weighing on Hillary Clinton, Now Tied With Donald Trump[/h]
Hillary Clinton has emerged from the F.B.I. investigation into her email practices as secretary of state a wounded candidate with a large and growing majority of voters saying she cannot be trusted, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
As Mrs. Clinton prepares to accept the Democratic Party’s nomination at the convention in Philadelphia this month, she will confront an electorate in which 67 percent of voters say she is not honest and trustworthy. That number is up five percentage points from a CBS News poll conducted last month, before the F.B.I. released its findings.
Mrs. Clinton’s six-percentage-point lead over the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald J. Trump, in a CBS News poll last month has evaporated. The two candidates are now tied in a general election matchup, the new poll indicates, with each receiving the support of 40 percent of voters.
Mr. Trump is also distrusted by a large number of voters — 62 percent — but that number has stayed constant despite increased scrutiny on his business record and falsehoods in his public statements and Twitter messages.
But Mrs. Clinton’s shifting and inaccurate explanations of her email practices at the State Department appear to have resonated more deeply with the electorate.
Last week, the F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, recommended no criminal charges be filed against Mrs. Clinton over her handling of classified information on a private email server, but he called her actions “extremely careless.” The investigation undercut many of Mrs. Clinton’s statements over the past 18 months to explain and defend her decision to rely on the private server at her home in Chappaqua, N.Y.
Mrs. Clinton and her campaign celebrated the Justice Department’s decision not to indict her as a legal victory, but the political fallout appears significant, at least for now. She and her aides have vowed to win back the public’s trust, while acknowledging that this will be tough.
Voters still view Mrs. Clinton as vastly more prepared for the job — with 50 percent saying she is prepared, compared with the 30 percent who say the same about Mr. Trump. Voters’ views of Mrs. Clinton’s preparedness have also declined, by nine percentage points since last month.
As the candidates head to their respective party conventions, they will confront voters who range from disappointed to disgruntled about their choices.
Just 28 percent of voters said they had a positive view of Mrs. Clinton, compared with 33 percent last month. Asked if her email practices were illegal, 46 percent of voters said yes, compared with 23 percent who said using a private server was improper but not illegal. Twenty-four percent said she did nothing wrong.
“I just don’t think she’s been completely truthful with this whole thing with her emails,” Cecelia Purner, 67, a retired customer service representative in Allentown, Pa., said in a follow-up interview. But, she added, “I think she’ll make a good president if elected.”
Mr. Trump has slightly improved his standing, with 30 percent of voters saying they have a positive view of him. Last month, 26 percent said the same.
As attack ads and verbal charges intensify on both sides, voters already appear fatigued. More than six in 10 say they were not looking forward to the next few months of the campaign; 46 percent said they were unenthusiastic about the 2016 presidential election.
Carole Bower, 75, a retiree in Carthage, Ill., supported Gov. John Kasich of Ohio in the Republican primary, but now plans to vote for Mr. Trump. “I will reluctantly do that because he’s got to be better than Hillary,” she said. “I will hold my nose and go into that voting booth.”
The grim view of the political climate comes as Americans experience heightened anxieties connected to their economic prospects, the threat of terrorism and race relations.
The killings of black men by white police officers and attacks on the police have left 62 percent of voters saying race relations are growing worse. Mrs. Clinton is seen as far more capable of dealing with racial tensions than Mr. Trump — 60 percent of voters said Mrs. Clinton would be better at handling the issue, double the number who said the same of Mr. Trump.
Mrs. Clinton has largely based her campaign on lifting the economic fortunes of a middle class that has felt squeezed after nearly 15 years of stagnant wages, a message that should fit with the current climate. Yet voters increasingly view Mrs. Clinton as less able to fulfill that economic promise. Last month, those polled were evenly split on whether Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Trump would do a better job handling the economy and jobs. Now, 52 percent said Mr. Trump would be better, compared with 41 percent for Mrs. Clinton.
After the deadly attack on a gay nightclub in Orlando, Fla., by a gunman who expressed sympathy for the Islamic State, voters are evenly divided on which candidate would do a better job of handling terrorism and national security, an issue on which Mrs. Clinton held a seven-percentage-point advantage last month.
The lens through which voters view the candidates is sharply divided along gender and racial lines, with Mr. Trump having a double-digit lead among men and white voters without college degrees and Mrs. Clinton maintaining her double-digit edge among women and nonwhites.
At a rally in Portsmouth, N.H., on Tuesday, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont endorsed Mrs. Clinton, saying that his former Democratic primary rival would “make an outstanding president.” But some of his supporters remain reluctant to get behind Mrs. Clinton, often citing trust as a factor.
“Bernie seemed more to be more transparent than her,” said Rachel Woolard, 20, of Jacksonville, Fla. “She definitely has the stereotypical politician approach to things, so that makes her feel a little disingenuous.”
The nationwide poll was conducted July 8 to 12 on cellphones and landlines among 1,358 registered voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for all voters.
With intense news media attention surrounding the candidates’ selection of running mates, many voters across party lines shrugged off the decision, with three in 10 saying a vice-presidential candidate would have no effect on their vote.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/15/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-poll.html?_r=0
[h=1]Poll Finds Emails Weighing on Hillary Clinton, Now Tied With Donald Trump[/h]
Hillary Clinton has emerged from the F.B.I. investigation into her email practices as secretary of state a wounded candidate with a large and growing majority of voters saying she cannot be trusted, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
As Mrs. Clinton prepares to accept the Democratic Party’s nomination at the convention in Philadelphia this month, she will confront an electorate in which 67 percent of voters say she is not honest and trustworthy. That number is up five percentage points from a CBS News poll conducted last month, before the F.B.I. released its findings.
Mrs. Clinton’s six-percentage-point lead over the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald J. Trump, in a CBS News poll last month has evaporated. The two candidates are now tied in a general election matchup, the new poll indicates, with each receiving the support of 40 percent of voters.
Mr. Trump is also distrusted by a large number of voters — 62 percent — but that number has stayed constant despite increased scrutiny on his business record and falsehoods in his public statements and Twitter messages.
But Mrs. Clinton’s shifting and inaccurate explanations of her email practices at the State Department appear to have resonated more deeply with the electorate.
Last week, the F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, recommended no criminal charges be filed against Mrs. Clinton over her handling of classified information on a private email server, but he called her actions “extremely careless.” The investigation undercut many of Mrs. Clinton’s statements over the past 18 months to explain and defend her decision to rely on the private server at her home in Chappaqua, N.Y.
Mrs. Clinton and her campaign celebrated the Justice Department’s decision not to indict her as a legal victory, but the political fallout appears significant, at least for now. She and her aides have vowed to win back the public’s trust, while acknowledging that this will be tough.
Voters still view Mrs. Clinton as vastly more prepared for the job — with 50 percent saying she is prepared, compared with the 30 percent who say the same about Mr. Trump. Voters’ views of Mrs. Clinton’s preparedness have also declined, by nine percentage points since last month.
As the candidates head to their respective party conventions, they will confront voters who range from disappointed to disgruntled about their choices.
Just 28 percent of voters said they had a positive view of Mrs. Clinton, compared with 33 percent last month. Asked if her email practices were illegal, 46 percent of voters said yes, compared with 23 percent who said using a private server was improper but not illegal. Twenty-four percent said she did nothing wrong.
“I just don’t think she’s been completely truthful with this whole thing with her emails,” Cecelia Purner, 67, a retired customer service representative in Allentown, Pa., said in a follow-up interview. But, she added, “I think she’ll make a good president if elected.”
Mr. Trump has slightly improved his standing, with 30 percent of voters saying they have a positive view of him. Last month, 26 percent said the same.
As attack ads and verbal charges intensify on both sides, voters already appear fatigued. More than six in 10 say they were not looking forward to the next few months of the campaign; 46 percent said they were unenthusiastic about the 2016 presidential election.
Carole Bower, 75, a retiree in Carthage, Ill., supported Gov. John Kasich of Ohio in the Republican primary, but now plans to vote for Mr. Trump. “I will reluctantly do that because he’s got to be better than Hillary,” she said. “I will hold my nose and go into that voting booth.”
The grim view of the political climate comes as Americans experience heightened anxieties connected to their economic prospects, the threat of terrorism and race relations.
The killings of black men by white police officers and attacks on the police have left 62 percent of voters saying race relations are growing worse. Mrs. Clinton is seen as far more capable of dealing with racial tensions than Mr. Trump — 60 percent of voters said Mrs. Clinton would be better at handling the issue, double the number who said the same of Mr. Trump.
Mrs. Clinton has largely based her campaign on lifting the economic fortunes of a middle class that has felt squeezed after nearly 15 years of stagnant wages, a message that should fit with the current climate. Yet voters increasingly view Mrs. Clinton as less able to fulfill that economic promise. Last month, those polled were evenly split on whether Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Trump would do a better job handling the economy and jobs. Now, 52 percent said Mr. Trump would be better, compared with 41 percent for Mrs. Clinton.
After the deadly attack on a gay nightclub in Orlando, Fla., by a gunman who expressed sympathy for the Islamic State, voters are evenly divided on which candidate would do a better job of handling terrorism and national security, an issue on which Mrs. Clinton held a seven-percentage-point advantage last month.
The lens through which voters view the candidates is sharply divided along gender and racial lines, with Mr. Trump having a double-digit lead among men and white voters without college degrees and Mrs. Clinton maintaining her double-digit edge among women and nonwhites.
At a rally in Portsmouth, N.H., on Tuesday, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont endorsed Mrs. Clinton, saying that his former Democratic primary rival would “make an outstanding president.” But some of his supporters remain reluctant to get behind Mrs. Clinton, often citing trust as a factor.
“Bernie seemed more to be more transparent than her,” said Rachel Woolard, 20, of Jacksonville, Fla. “She definitely has the stereotypical politician approach to things, so that makes her feel a little disingenuous.”
The nationwide poll was conducted July 8 to 12 on cellphones and landlines among 1,358 registered voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for all voters.
With intense news media attention surrounding the candidates’ selection of running mates, many voters across party lines shrugged off the decision, with three in 10 saying a vice-presidential candidate would have no effect on their vote.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/15/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-poll.html?_r=0
StoneHappyMonday
Bluelighter
- Joined
- May 10, 2001
- Messages
- 18,084
I don't get this 538 Nate Silver stuff. He predicts two elections and ESPN pay him a fortune. Take a look how he got on predicting the UK's last election. Meanwhile, I've correctly predicted every single UK General Election since 1979 and nobody is paying me millions. I won £400 spread betting on our last election and even showed other BL'ers how to do it.
http://www.bluelight.org/vb/threads/755395-General-Election-2015?p=13025545#post13025545
Post 335 of that thread.
American elections though? You want me to analyse and predict the American mind? Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
what does your electoral map look like if you have trump winning?
popular vote polls, to me, are little use. in 2000 bush lost the popular vote but 'won' the election... in 2004. barack obama won the popular vote by 7.2% (still pretty big for a u.s. election) but won the electoral college by 365 to 173. hardly reagan numbers but a very convincing victory.
alasdair
trump chooses pence for vp? Donald Trump’s Campaign Signals He Will Pick Mike Pence as Running Mate
"Calls to ban Muslims from entering the U.S. are offensive and unconstitutional...Our Constitution guarantees the free exercise of religion. The U.S. cannot discriminate on the basis of religion." mike pence, 12/8/2016
on u.s. district judge gonzalo curiel "I don't think it's ever appropriate to question the partiality of a judge based on his ethnic background..." mike pence, 6/7/2016
i guess they'll have to have a chat about those...
alasdair
"Calls to ban Muslims from entering the U.S. are offensive and unconstitutional...Our Constitution guarantees the free exercise of religion. The U.S. cannot discriminate on the basis of religion." mike pence, 12/8/2016
on u.s. district judge gonzalo curiel "I don't think it's ever appropriate to question the partiality of a judge based on his ethnic background..." mike pence, 6/7/2016
i guess they'll have to have a chat about those...
alasdair
Probably should have posted my rant in this thread... Pence also supported TPP. The Republicans around Trump are also going hardcore Christian mode. I'm convinced Trump doesn't really want to win.
manboychef
Bluelighter
^^^ Turn it upside down. Looks like a handjob.
Pence is a horrible human being. He is a creationist, and is against abortion, education, and every good social program that has come out.
He has a less than 50% approval rating in IN where he is governor. Why is it the choices we have are people that have low approval ratings? American life bewilders me.
Pence is a horrible human being. He is a creationist, and is against abortion, education, and every good social program that has come out.
He has a less than 50% approval rating in IN where he is governor. Why is it the choices we have are people that have low approval ratings? American life bewilders me.
Droppersneck
Bluelighter
Bad pick Trump, but at least it wasnt Newt. I wanted to see him pick a woman or at least someone of color to help nuetrilize the gender novelty Hilary has on him. Even maybe Gen Flyyn would of been better, but pence will unite the party with all the crazies.
I would have voted for him if he chose Flynn. No matter how good in health, Trump is still a 70 year old man the fact that he could kick it a month into his term and then we get a globalist socially conservative religious fanatic as president for the next 4 years is more horrifying than Hillary.
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