• Current Events & Politics
    Welcome Guest
    Please read before posting:
    Forum Guidelines Bluelight Rules
  • Current Events & Politics Moderators: deficiT | tryptakid | Foreigner

2016 American Presidential Campaign

Status
Not open for further replies.
short answer- One of the reasons I used the word bewildering is because out of those three states the only one i could see him winning is PA. so if he happens to win either NY or CA i would consider that 'bewildering'. other reason has to do with math and the states left.

if he loses NY he's probably finished. if loses NY and PA he's definitely finished.

(just IMO of course)
 
I can see Sanders winning California and Clinton winning New York.

Sanders absolutely kicked Clinton's ass today, yet only garnered one superdelegates while Clinton garnered 15. At least he did take a 20% chunk out of her pledged delegate lead.

Ah, democracy. If you ain't got it, we'll bomb it to you.
 
Last edited:
not a fair comparison..

Obama got a lot of 'minority' votes which are now going to Clinton. I think Obama won 5 states in the the southeast. (Clinton is going to win all of these States)

edit sorry:

after looking into this: Sanders might have to win almost every state from now on to have a chance.
 
Last edited:
sanders might not be in the race when it is time for CA to vote. he needs to win approx 70% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination. i think he will stay in until CA but not because he has a chance - because he doesn't want to upset his supporters.

( next morning edit )
 
Last edited:
Bernie Sanders is not dropping out of the race. He has stated several times that he will take his campaign right into the convention, where he plans to make a case for all of the Superdelegates to abandon Hillary and pledge their support to him.
 
my prediction is that Sanders will narrowly take the lead in pledged delegates after CA, and then it will be up to the super delegates at the convention. I don't know how that will go, but these super delegates would be kind of stupid not to realize that voting for Clinton if Sanders has won the popular vote would be political suicide. If Sanders doesn't get the nomination, his supporters still aren't going anywhere.


When people talk about the math and Sanders' chances of overcoming Clinton, one really important factor that I don't think is being considered enough is momentum. The momentum has been with Sanders the whole campaign, and that will continue. Sanders does better when voter turnout is high, and when voters are actually well informed about what he stands for. So far in a lot of states the DNC and mainstream media have done fairly well preventing these two things, but as the Sanders campaign grows in momentum it's increasingly difficult to do this. Sanders is flying around doing multiple rallies to tens of thousands of supporters every day. It's harder and harder for the media to ignore him. As the momentum grows establishment politicians and the media will have to stoop to more and more extreme dirty tactics, and it's becoming clearer and clearer that there is a huge base of voters (YOUNG voters who are the future of American politics, a huge demographic that is constantly growing as more reach voting age) who can see through their bullshit and will not stand for it.
 
Clinton's wins have been predicated on early voters. AKA the people who sent in their votes weeks or months in advance, before the presidential race even started and before anyone knew who Bernie Sanders was. If you look at the data from the states she's won, Sanders beat her in a lot of them with election day voters. She just had a shit ton of early ballots already mailed in for her. In Arizona there were like 200k early ballots sent in for her.

Bernie is going to win this race. I've been saying it for over a month now. You all laughed when I said the media narrative would change by June. It's already starting to change and it's not even April. The mainstream media can only pretend he has no chance for so long before they look like complete fools for doing so. Bernie crushed Clinton yesterday and cut a 60+ delegate chunk out of her lead. Now that we're in the heat of the primary and she can't count on getting all those early votes from before Sanders was known, she's screwed. I fully expect people in California, NY, and PA to lean more and more towards Bernie as their primaries get closer. Clinton gets votes based on ignorance. Unfortunately for her Bernie's campaign has 1-2 more months to educate people in those states before their primaries.

It would have been much better for Hillary if those states voted earlier in the cycle. Since they don't, they will be her downfall.
 
GM said:
Bernie is going to win this race.
Click to expand...

hope you're correct but it seems incredibly unlikely..

New Yorker said:
The next vote is scheduled for Tuesday, April 5th, in Wisconsin, where Sanders has a decent chance of coming out ahead. The polls are close, he’s been drawing big crowds, eighty-eight per cent of the population is white, and Wisconsin has a strong radical tradition.

On the other hand, the Clinton campaign has also targeted the state, and it has the support of many labor unions, which have been battling Governor Scott Walker for years. Even if Sanders does prevail, the result is likely to be close, which means the ninety-six delegates will probably be split fairly evenly. Clinton’s lead is likely to remain largely intact.

After Wisconsin, the race will move east to some big and diverse states, where the former Secretary of State’s support among minorities will be an important factor. On April 19th, the New York primary will be held.

A week later, five more states along the Northeast Corridor will vote: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. More than seven hundred and fifty delegates will be up for grabs in these six contests. Early polls aren’t necessarily reliable, but many of the ones that have been conducted in these states show Clinton with big leads.
Click to expand...

New Yorker basically repeating what i was saying a few days ago..plagiarism 8)

can-bernie-sanders-really-win-the-nomination
 
I just hate that superdelegates play such a huge role in deciding the nominee. It seems like they will always go with establishment politicians regardless of what people truly feel, or what we truly need in this country.
 
i know they are just polls but the republicans must be worried:

2016polls01.jpg


alasdair
 
manboychef said:
I just hate that superdelegates play such a huge role in deciding the nominee. It seems like they will always go with establishment politicians regardless of what people truly feel, or what we truly need in this country.
Click to expand...

The superdelegates are the most corrupt. They are already bought. They are part of the reason the Clinton had already been pre-selected before the primaries even began.
 
Last edited:
^ which is why i said "i know they are just polls". reading helps.

but, i am intrigued. i'd love to hear your analysis of the record of accuracy for the sources i provided. thanks.

alasdair
 
Tbf there wasn't a poll out there that had trump where he is at now even 3 months ago. Polls generally show what their creators want them to show. All I am saying is don't put too much faith in them you may end up upset and not even know how you got there. Clearly Hilary does not want to face trump bc he will bring up things no other candidate would get the green light to. Cnn is pushing the 'trump can't possibly win so you should just nominate Cruz' angle hard af lately. Regardless of whether or not Clinton will win they do not want to face trump and the hogwash you all regurgitate is proof positive in my mind.
 
^ i see you chose to just not answer the question.

the first two polls i included in that image are from realclearpolitics. in the 2012 race, on 28th march 2012 realclearpolitics had obama winning with 48.7% of the vote. he won in november with 51.1% of the vote.

i'd say that's a pretty good level of accuracy. but you have a counterclaim that they have a poor record for accuracy. - i'd love to hear your substantiation of your claim.

alasdair
 
I guess my point is with trump there is no way to tell due to the unprecedented nature of his candidacy. I refuse to believe anything after believing everything I have read saying he had no chance of each milestone he has reached. Lol Obama- Romney I think mother jones could have polled that correctly ?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top