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the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

tryptakid said:
tryptakid said:
Should have had a system setup to prevent/punish/tax/prevent exploitative industries.
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Which is what progressives were saying all along...
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Well now they gotta pay up to keep making their products in those countries that allow exploitative labor, or they can just manufacture their products in America and create jobs here. So the tariffs are a good force for combatting exploitation, right?
 
Electrum1 said:
Well now they gotta pay up to keep making their products in those countries that allow exploitative labor, or they can just manufacture their products in America and create jobs here. So the tariffs are a good force for combatting exploitation, right?
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That's the hope isn't it - that this will bring jobs back here.

There was a frontline episode a few years ago about W. Va and these companies trying to create jobs there, but the rates of addiction and drug-related disability/mental health related issues was so high that they could not fill open jobs.

It's going to take a massive amount of recovery efforts to mobilize the unemployable in this country - many of whom are the very people who voted Trump in in the first place. Maybe it works, but I don't think it will happen over night. This will take generations to fully mend.
 
Electrum1 said:
Well now they gotta pay up to keep making their products in those countries that allow exploitative labor, or they can just manufacture their products in America and create jobs here. So the tariffs are a good force for combatting exploitation, right?
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So.. you're honestly the best reader of market stuff that I talk to with any regularity - what companies will thrive in the wake of all of this stuff?

Better Health?
 
I don't know who will "thrive" but Americam drug companies that have approved products with growing sales will hold up a lot better than other stocks in an environment where tariffs stay and/or the market stays bearish

Those other countries could just lower their tariffs against us if they want us to lower ours, so maybe that happens
 
Electrum1 said:
I don't know who will "thrive" but Americam drug companies that have approved products with growing sales will hold up a lot better than other stocks in an environment where tariffs stay and/or the market stays bearish

Those other countries could just lower their tariffs against us if they want us to lower ours, so maybe that happens
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My local produce market is booming - eggs are a steady 3.99/lb for bomb cage free/free range/organic healthy yolk eggs
 
Feel like that nasdaq 15,589 was just a bottom at least for a little while

Good news is the 10-year yield has dropped from 4.79% on Jan 20th to 3.95% right now, so if we can get that down more then we can refinance our national debt later this year at lower rates then do QE and the market will boom again
 
Newsmax IPO'd Monday and its trading range this week is $14.00 to $265.00, and it closed the week at $45.00. Pretty crazy
 
Electrum1 said:
Well guess I was wrong about that. Nasdaq futures down 5% right now
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At what point do these fluctuations begin to cause real (vs. speculative) impacts on a broad scale? Like, obviously portfolios are getting fucked and people who were planning to cash things out in the near future are probably rethinking that - but at what point does this stuff lead to a major crisis?
 
Don't know but probably when foreclosures and unemployment go up a lot would be my guess. We've been bailing out people from going into foreclosure already so the actual economy hasn't been great for a while now


Under the guise of Covid relief, the Biden administration masked the growing troubles in the housing market by paying off borrowers and mortgage servicers to prevent foreclosures. Of the 52,531 FHA loans last year that went seriously delinquent within their first year, only nine resulted in foreclosure.

The FHA instituted a program that pays mortgage servicers to make borrowers’ missed payments for them. Missed payments are added to the loan’s principal, but without interest. The FHA also pays servicers to cut monthly payments for delinquent borrowers by 25% for three years, with the payment reductions also added to the principal without interest.

Consider a borrower who misses five $4,000 monthly mortgage payments. The servicer will add the $20,000 in missed payments to the mortgage and reduce monthly payments by $1,000 for three years—adding another $36,000 to their mortgage. So the borrower is $56,000 deeper in debt, though with no additional interest. If he misses payments again, the servicer rinses and repeats, getting paid $1,750 every time it lathers up. The FHA also lets servicers charge borrowers legal fees—typically several thousand dollars—that are added to the mortgage principal.
The FHA made 556,841 “incentive payments” to servicers over the past year to prevent foreclosures—nearly as many as the new mortgages it insured. Government-backed mortgage relief has become a cash cow for servicers, some of which originated the risky loans they are paid not to foreclose. Moral hazard, anyone?

One result is that many FHA borrowers owe more than their original mortgage and more than their homes are worth. They are essentially trapped in their homes even if they want to sell and move.
Another result is that home prices keep increasing because borrowers who don’t pay their mortgages—and never should have qualified for loans—can’t get foreclosed on or be forced to sell their homes. Getting foreclosed on these days is like flunking out of college—it takes effort. You have to reject repeated offers for mortgage relief.

Government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac instituted similar “home retention” programs for delinquent borrowers with the Biden administration’s blessing. The cost of their mortgage relief gets socialized in higher rates charged to home buyers whose mortgages they guarantee.
Taxpayers are on the hook if the FHA insurance fund—financed by premiums on mortgages it backs—goes broke paying off borrowers and servicers to prevent foreclosures. The FHA annual report to Congress doesn’t disclose the cost of such payments, and the agency didn’t furnish them on my request. Perhaps the Department of Government Efficiency could dig into its financial books.

The Biden administration built a house of cards that could collapse if Trump officials dare to end the mortgage giveaways, as they should. Foreclosures would inevitably increase, which could cause home prices to fall sharply in lower-income neighborhoods with more FHA mortgages. More borrowers would then fall underwater, ballooning taxpayer losses, though homes might also become more affordable for people who don’t already own them.

But what a mess. And who will get blamed? Not the folks who inflated the bubble
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Electrum1 said:
Don't know but probably when foreclosures and unemployment go up a lot would be my guess. We've been bailing out people from going into foreclosure already so the actual economy hasn't been great for a while now




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I remember driving through my hometown in 08 and seeing people's belongings on their lawns. It was the first time I had ever seen anything like that in an middle-upperclass Massachusetts suburb.
 
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Feel like I should buy some Google and Amazon today and sell it when we have a bear market rally
 
I feel the tariffs are like a controlled burn to crash the market gently. But it’s beyond any point of being gentle.
 
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