NPR: U.S. overdose deaths plummet, saving thousands of lives

I listened to this report on the radio today. It's slightly dubious reporting, because they cannot explain the reduction nor do they even speculate, but also mention it's city specific reduction, yet don't even mention the cities.

The harm reduction organizations should get more than just a really vague mention that the article provides... (they don't mention them at all on the radio version...)

"It's a miracle, we can't explain it", is the radio version....
 
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If you see the chart, and choose to believe it, then you can see that there was a significant rise in OD deaths during and shortly after the COVID pandemic.
Which makes sense.
It also makes sense that the rate is going down now, that things are going back to normal and ppl and economies had a little time to recover.
The OD rate is still much higher than it was 2019.
The real drop was from 2018 to 2019.
 
Update?

I put my money on realistic HR being widely implemented, effected people realizing that people care and that good people have their 6 and are working to help us/them and the change medical professionals implemented, utter stupid dynamic changes that cost the lives of hundreds of thousands finally caught up.
 
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For one thing the Government specifically wants to go after Opiates. They don't care too much about the other drugs.
 
Update?

I put my money on realistic HR being widely implemented, effected people realizing that people care and that good people have their 6 and are working to help us/them and the change medical professionals implemented, utter stupid dynamic changes that cost the lives of hundreds of thousands finally caught up.

I put my money on this announcement which media seems to ignore:


The Sinaloa Cartel was by far the biggest importer fentanyl and basically started the whole pressed m30 epidemic.

Of course HR outreach, societal training, and narcan availability are factors as well, but I think its the cartels cutting back is the biggest factor.
 
Also, we started getting threads like this for the first time ever:


AZ is Sinaloa's main turf and import route. (The most recent post)
 
Some thoughts:

The answer is likely a combination of multiple efforts:

1) the upper limit on those who are going to overdose has been reached... Those who continue to use do so while knowing how to not die from it.

2) less young users are fueling the crisis. There is a drop in drug use amongst teenagers, especially opioids. Over time, less new users backfill the population of current users. Newer users are more vulnerable to overdose than established ones.

3) narcan training and availability -most current opioid users have Narcan and many have used it on someone (I have worked with opioid users for 15 years, and used to be a heroin addict myself).

4) widespread buprenorphine access similarly has a protective effect. This also can mean that people stay on some type of opioid without completely abstaining for longer, however, so it may be complicating the overall population a bit.

5) difficult to parse out supply side changes... There is instability with the cartels, and there may also be a level of expertise that has emerged in producing a product that is more well balanced and less unpredictable.

6) awareness to the risks of use, public programming, and outreach to drug users regarding services and safe places to access their needs.

7) Wide embracing of Kratom as an opioid alternative is potentially helping folks move away from using illicits for pain management or as a way to self-maintain.

8) Legal cannabis as an alternative for some folks who use it to manage pain - this includes stuff like CBD and some of the other cannabinoids that seem to be catching on as alternatives to opioids. I've noted a lot of older folks who have started using these things as a way to manage pain.

The response to the crisis has been multifactorial and it's unlikely that any one piece has been the main factor. I think that we are seeing a shift due to the aggregate, which has taken a few years to fully buffer and protect. The goal now is to reevaluate policy to make things more tolerable for both drug users and the communities they live in.
 
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