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  • LAVA Moderator: Shinji Ikari

the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

JahBeeuS said:
priced in?
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For now yeah, but they're just starting to sell it and hopefully prove it works outside of clinical trials, because

"Rezdiffra was granted accelerated approval by the FDA.
Rezdiffra must prove effective in a confirmatory study to get final approval. Regulators could pull it off the market if it fails to do so. Rezdiffra has so far shown effectiveness in multiple clinical trials, including a phase 3 study, although that doesn't guarantee success in the ongoing confirmatory study. That's a crucial reason for caution"

I caught the huge move on Phase 3 data in 2022 so I'm working with free shares at this point luckily, so I'm gonna wait it out
 
The GLP-1 drugs may be a threat, or it maybe would've been bought out by now. It's definitely still a buyout candidate tho since it's the only FDA approved NASH/MASH drug and competitors like VKTX are years behind
 
JahBeeuS said:
all of my play money is back in $GME tbh but solid call for sure.
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They should shut down their most unprofitable stores and then use some of that cash they have to buy something not even related to gaming like ROOT insurance that is close to being profitable. Or do like MSTR did and buy some bitcoin
 
Electrum1 said:
They should shut down their most unprofitable stores and then use some of that cash they have to buy something not even related to gaming like ROOT insurance that is close to being profitable. Or do like MSTR did and buy some bitcoin
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Bingo.

I'll admit that I don't know as much about Japanese economics as I would like to, but my understanding is that there is a world of difference between a way that the zaibatsu/Japanese companies are run vis-a-vis American companies that have to operate under the pressure of appeasing right-wing activists like Karl Icahn.

And having spend half of a life time meditating upon this? I am not aware of a single reason why the Icahn crowd would be right in any way that should impact a CEO's ability to run a business without facing activists investors.
 
ne thoughts on BOIL? I was planning to exit tomorrow and it has appreciated in price nicely but there's been shit brewing in Europe wrt gas contracts with Russia. From now, they will have to get that gas at market price and U.S. seems like the obvious choice assuming it can be delivered to where it's needed because LNG needs a port with a special terminal to handle that.
 
Pretty good it's held up this long without huge decay like 3x leveraged ETF's have

I'm planning on going long nat gas when the new export facilities come online in 2025-2026ish. The U.S. will be able to export a lot more to Europe
 
Electrum1 said:
Pretty good it's held up this long without huge decay like 3x leveraged ETF's have

I'm planning on going long nat gas when the new export facilities come online in 2025-2026ish. The U.S. will be able to export a lot more to Europe
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It's rare that I do this but I'm going to take a dissenting opinion to Electrum. ...he is, after all a much better trader than I am.

BOIL seems to have little going for it, in my opinion than the fact that it's trading at a discount to NAV. On the other hand, when you look at it's 5-year or 10-year return you can understand why it might trade below NAV. I am finding very little to like about this stock.

I couldn't interest you in XLE? I have traded XLE in the past with good results. I don't know the fund manager or anything but it's considered one of the better energy ETF.

If you are truly interested in leverage I think you'd be better off learning the derivatives market. No sense in paying BOIL's management to lose money for you. Or failing that maybe take positions on crude oil commodities.

If even that is not spicy enough for you, XOM is trading for only 12x earnings? I admit that the company has problems but it's predicted that they will soon hit $2.40 per share in earnings. As far as I know their worst sin (well, besides environmental pollution, political graft and human rights nonsense) is that they had a bad quarter but I don't think they'll stay down for ever.

Let us know what you decide? I find little to like about BOIL.
 
XOM seems good for long term. I just wanted to take advantage of a seasonal thing with BOIL. Leveraged ETFs have been good for me so far, solid gains for not much work
 
miscbrahh said:
I don't claim to be an expert, but I'm going to put up the most noob-friendly advice / examples I can give (that I wish I knew when starting out):

if you have $1000 in the bank just sitting there in a high-interest savings account, in Canada it'll typically get you 2% tops... which is $24 in 1 year
the annual rate of inflation in Canada has been around 1-3% per year for the last 4 years.
so if you leave your $ sitting in the bank with 2% interest, while the inflation rate is 3%, you're actually losing $ in a sense.

Anyways, with $1000 invested (usually the minimum amount required), even with a fairly small 10% increase in a year, you'll have $120 instead of $24 from the bank.

The above example is really what got me into investing.

What I've done is to read up on Investopedia: http://www.investopedia.com/investing/investing-basics/

And I also used their simulator, which lets you invest with fake $.
http://www.investopedia.com/simulator/

Did about a year of that, then actually opened an account and used my own money.
Year 1: -26.75% annual return (learned A LOT)
Year 2: 40% annual return
Year 3: 26.25% annual return

I've added money as I went along, but basically I'm up about 40%. That's roughly the equivalent of leaving my $ in a 2% interest
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How much of a risk would one be taking for this %10 anually? I am still reading ALOT.
 
smokeymcpot42088 said:
How much of a risk would one be taking for this %10 anually? I am still reading ALOT.
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if you google the ticker name of any ETF it should give you a fact sheet that bottom lines the risk level of that fund for you. a lot of that ones that return 10%+ consistently are "medium" risk or higher.

usually, the highest returns for the lowest risk are "blue chip" companies - companies that aren't growing because they already reached market saturation and return a chunk of the profits to shareholders in the form of dividends.

the best way to reduce risk is to diversify, which is what ETFs do for you by holding a basket of different companies' common stock. in exchange, you pay them a management fee aka management expense ratio or MER.

the other way some funds diversify is by holding a certain amount in cash or bonds rather than equities. something like VBAL is a popular choice for getting good returns with low MER and having some bond exposure, though... IIRC it's a Canadian fund, not sure what the US equivalent is
 
^ Thank you for a good starting point.

"Blue chip" companies sound like a good place to check. I will be using that calc for a good yr before I put my money in. I do know that I don't know lol.
 
thujone said:
. I just wanted to take advantage of a seasonal thing with BOIL.
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I still would have rather been in XLE.

Palantir and Salesforce have aged nicely.

Anyone out there who has been along for the ride with Walmart, time to start think about taking profit. I'm going to reduce my position next time that it crosses $70/share.
 
SentinelOne up 6% with Crowdstrike causing outages today. Crowdstrike down 9%. SentinelOne could be worth owning long term, I already own it but haven't posted about it yet
 
Electrum1 said:
SentinelOne up 6% with Crowdstrike causing outages today. Crowdstrike down 9%. SentinelOne could be worth owning long term, I already own it but haven't posted about it yet
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Yeah this can not be a good day for Crowdstrike financially speaking, but people tend to forget quickly. I bet they recover soon enough.
 
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