Russo-Ukrainian War v. World War 3?

[Jnowhere]

Does anyone think Putin would start a nuclear war?

He seems the type who's ego wouldn't let him lose so I'm wondering if he will.

I hope he's smart enough to know there would be no winners but would he doom us all so he doesn't lose?

He is an old man born in 1952 so he is over 70 now he takes care of him self aka all those ridiculous pictures of of him. But seriously he doesn't smoke, never heard he was a drunk like Boris Yeltsin, his prediscesser. However, he would probably do anything to protect " Mother Russia" and his job/ego. Also he is short and probably has a Napoleon complex.
Russia has a hugh supply of nukes and probably more than anyone or country knows about. The 300 that France has and about the same as The UK is little compared to Russia and has more and larger ones than America. Sad but true.
He if the rumors of him having cancer are true, however if it is prostate cancer and caught early is relatively easy to cure. If it is true and is something terminal, then bye bye western Erurope and the UK.
However the Stars Wars plan implemented by Reagan and over a Trillion spent might be able to protect a lot of America, plus we could defend against his bombers.
But the UK and Western Europe would have a big problem dealing with him new generation of missle boats, or boomers aka subs that have slbm, submarine launched ballistic missles with multiple independent nuclear warheads launched at close range. Also he has attack subs that are fast and can launch cruise missles tipped with nuclear warheads at close range to western Europe.
The good news is America would stand a better chance of survival. And from my perspective he might see Detroit as a waste of ammo.
But yes I believe if Nato was stupid enough to go to far he would use nuclear weapons at the very least against Western Europe and the UK.
America would be in better shape, but the east coast in particularly NYC and The Inside the beltway. I am glad I don't live in New Jersey or Maryland anymore( long time ago, and briefly in both states, same with Philly, ( I lived there in the suburbs for a year.) But we could probably defended against his ICBM's and probably his long range bombers but the UK and The major cities of western Europe could be annihilated, in a proxy war.
Say what you will about Trump but his ego is at the very least big enough to make him a narcissist if not a sociopath, which in this case would be perfect. The Russians, even Putin would know Trump would go apeshit crazy and use everything we got on him. While Sleepy Joe would just shit his pants.

 

[AlsoTapered]

I believe Putin does have a replacement in mind - he's aware of mortality.

But I grew up during the cold war so most of my life has been spent ASSUMING that the US and Russia would seek to fight a proxy war in Europe.

That's why the UK and France still have hundreds of 'city burning machines' as XKCD puts it. How many does one need?

 

[Jnowhere]

I am not at all familiar with the current mindset of Europe's leaders. How likely are they to really put boots on the ground and stick their nose in a place where it might get cut off? Also how likely is the EU countries and NATO to send large supplies of desperately need weapons and ammo to the Ukrainian's?

 

[-=SS=-]

I am not at all familiar with the current mindset of Europe's leaders. How likely are they to really put boots on the ground and stick their nose in a place where it might get cut off?

I'd say more likely than not.

Look at our track record when it comes to war and conflict over the past couple of decades. Our leaders clearly have no qualms about destroying the lives of other peoples or those of our soldiers (and their families) when it comes to playing their geopolitical thing. The precedent is clearly there. The recent conscription talk, again clearly shows they have already considered or even made a decision.

These people are dangerously unhinged, they don't live in the reality we live in. Again, German military officials this week got caught talking about plotting to blow up the Crimean bridge - they also revealed Britain has forces already in Ukraine (i.e. SAS, SBS, MI6).

War is the perfect excuse/distraction from domestic issues, and boy does the UK, USA, and EU have that in spades right now. Economically, demographically, culturally. War also gives cover for 'emergency powers', to ram through anything that the pubic might otherwise object to.

We're one phony crisis away from it.

 

[AlsoTapered]

I am not at all familiar with the current mindset of Europe's leaders. How likely are they to really put boots on the ground and stick their nose in a place where it might get cut off? Also how likely is the EU countries and NATO to send large supplies of desperately need weapons and ammo to the Ukrainian's?

It's notable that the peoples of nations that were formally ruled by Russia are only too well aware of what Russian occupation means. They tend to be more certain that if we must fight, we WILL fight.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2a/Iron_Curtain_map.svg/800px-Iron_Curtain_map.svg.png

This was the map of Europe while I was growing up. Every single day of my childhood was spent wondering if we would all die in a European nuclear war. So I'm quite well aware that nations like Czechoslovakia were over-run and peaceful protest in Hungary and Poland were met with deadly force.

Russia WILL try to take everything and relies on us not acting.

Ben Franklin said it best.

'Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety'

 

[Jnowhere]

Then explain your countries gun and Lmao, knife laws. An armed population is the best defense against tyranny, some famous dead American, Thomas Jefferson maybe I forget( I don't wanna hear all you got to bitch about, these were men of their time) Society evolves and in some cases devolves. People were raised on bs ideas, that the way it was. Besides Europe did all the colonization and caused slavery. Just ask the people of what was the Belgium Congo.

 

[Jnowhere]

Also Tapered: I don't kiss people asses, but I respect your intellect; so let me ask you a question I have no answer too.
What should NATO and America which is part of NATO( a big part) do?
How should they handle the Russian and Ukrainian war?

 

[alasdairm]

An armed population is the best defense against tyranny

i have lived in the u.s. for about 30 years now and i have been hearing this for a long time

to me, one of the most egregious political crimes of the past 30 years was the patriot act, signed by george w. bush. it wiped its butt with the 4th amendment. where was the armed population in the face of that tyranny?

what is an example of government tyranny so terrible that you (plural, not you personally) would respond with your gun(s)? or is it just all mouth and no trousers?

alasdair

 

[AlsoTapered]

Also Tapered: I don't kiss people asses, but I respect your intellect; so let me ask you a question I have no answer too.
What should NATO and America which is part of NATO( a big part) do?
How should they handle the Russian and Ukrainian war?

I'm not ignoring your question - but please let me consider my best response. I'm not a politician or part of the military so their are many things I do not know.

I will do my very best to provide a nuanced and complete response to what is THE important question.

 

[Jnowhere]

No worries. We're all in this shit sandwich together, and more people are stirring every day to what is unfolding

I wanted to say but forgot, I have/had really no idea about many of the things going in your country. I know as an American citizen, that Canada it is not my country and I don't live there, but other than the weather, I really had my eyes opened to what has been going on there and what it is like for average Canadians and the 'changes' that have occurred in the Last few years. To be brutally honest, I know my country has it's own issues, but I was really shocked by some of the things I learned that have happened in your country, in the last couple of years and some of things that may occur in the future. It is like this once nice peaceful beautiful country is turning into some sort of dystopian nightmare. My country is also already headed down a horrible path too. However, I am shocked that the police due little to real criminals, but if you disagree with the party line; kiss your job, bank account and personal freedom goodbye( in certain circumstances). It seems like this once, nice pleasant country is quickly turning into an Orwellian nightmare

 

[Jnowhere]

I'm not ignoring your question - but please let me consider my best response. I'm not a politician or part of the military so their are many things I do not know.

I will do my very best to provide a nuanced and complete response to what is THE important question.

I, completely understand this is a terrible, pretty much no win situation and I certainly don't know what should be done to handle the Russian's, especially considering that they are led by Putin.

 

[Jnowhere]

I'd say more likely than not.

Look at our track record when it comes to war and conflict over the past couple of decades. Our leaders clearly have no qualms about destroying the lives of other peoples or those of our soldiers (and their families) when it comes to playing their geopolitical thing. The precedent is clearly there. The recent conscription talk, again clearly shows they have already considered or even made a decision.

These people are dangerously unhinged, they don't live in the reality we live in. Again, German military officials this week got caught talking about plotting to blow up the Crimean bridge - they also revealed Britain has forces already in Ukraine (i.e. SAS, SBS, MI6).

War is the perfect excuse/distraction from domestic issues, and boy does the UK, USA, and EU have that in spades right now. Economically, demographically, culturally. War also gives cover for 'emergency powers', to ram through anything that the pubic might otherwise object to.

We're one phony crisis away from it.

I don't know what to say other than I agree. I am not a coward but some of this, is really scary. The implications are unknown and could lead to a global disaster. This shit is not a game.
Look at Afghanistan, a little over 20 years later, and guess what; Who is in charge? The Taliban, only now they have more legitimacy.

 

[AlsoTapered]

@Jnowhere - on long reflection, THIS is how we always thought WW3 would begin. Russia is ignoring international law and simply employing the dictum of 'might it right' and using 'salami tactics' to take more and more territory under it's control so I think we (the UK at least) MUST fight. Someone has to be first.

I am not unaware of all that such entails. But Macron did something REALLY clever. He said we need to discuss this option and Russia went MAD with threats on threats. The go to position 'we will nuke you'.

But Russia has been stating that it's been fighting 'the whole of NATO' since day 1 and has claimed that NATO troops are fighting in Ukraine since day 1. Well, if that IS the truth - why would Macron's remarks cause a panic?

Yes we would like to BUY weapons from other nations and would hope they see the true picture. But either we fight now or we fight later - when Russia is stronger.

I have been on a battlefield so I'm not saying this unaware of what it means. We cannot HOPE Putin loses power and we cannot HOPE that Russia just stops at Ukraine and we cannot HOPE that the US will help. Europe as a whole needs to realize what is happening. We failed to do so in 2014 because we were being cowards.

Russia is relying on us NOT fighting. When we recognize that, IF we fight, we win. For a start - we will just KEEP all Russian assets in the UK whatever they are and sell them to buy weapons.

Germany could help by not STILL selling nitrocellulose to Russia. Yep - unbelievable but the EU is still selling Russia key materials.

Not as nuanced as I thought but I really have spent a LOT of time considering your question. So it would be good if Canada would at least sell us some weapons. You are safe over the water but I hope we can at least buy your weapons. What Canada decides is down to Canadians. I cannot demand you fight, merely ask to purchase materiel.

Mark my words. IF Russia succeeds in Ukraine, Transnistria and indeed ANY area with at least a few Russian people living there will be taken using the same excuse 'to stop repression of the Russian minority'. Then Poland, most likely. then Moldova. When do you decide it's YOU next?

BTW Russia LOVES to say how it fought Nazis? Well the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact is conveniently forgotten. Russia HAPPILY allied itself with the Nazis and would have happily taken it's share of Europe.

I can only speak for myself, but that is the way I see it. We WILL win IF we fight. Nobody seeks war but if it's the lesser of two evils, what else can I say?

 

[-=SS=-]

Germany could help by not STILL selling nitrocellulose to Russia. Yep - unbelievable but the EU is still selling Russia key materials.

Not unbelievable, if you understand the true history of the 20th century. American corporations and British finance were supplying the Nazi war machine with one hand, while attacking it with the other.

Nothing changes. Nothing. It's all bullshit. There isn't a single god damn war in the past 100 years that hasn't been concocted by international finance and the old boys network.

For example; Vietnam. Literally concocted by the false flag Gulf of Tonkin incident.

 

[Señor Moreno]

And the UK and the US and other NATO members keep buying russian uranium. And I bet France will have to buy from them even more now than they lost Niger. And Bulgary has an EU exemption to import they oil by sea, and Hungry does wathever they want...
They are bullshiting (and bullfighting) us, but that doesn't meant that thing can't go wrong.
I honestly think few of us really understand the russian mindset, our mate @Nas47 does and you can ask him if Russia will allow past shit to happen. They won't.
They may claim Transnistria or even Odessa, rhey can bark to the baltics, where apartheid is performed against their nationals. But nothing more. They can defeat Poland and Ukraine, but can't keep hold of them as they are huge and populated nations. How will 145 millons of russians invade and take control of the whole Europe.
Let's stop being cynical here, peoples of the world know who the imperialist are and were. They know it in Africa, Latam and the "Common"wealth.
Stop pretending we are allways the good guys and they the bad ones, cause they are nazis, communist, islamist...
All the planet is seeing how China is growing to the first world potency and the West, namely the anglosphere can't stand it. And this time they can't praise capitalism and free market cause those are exactly the weapons China is using to defeat them everywhere. US-NATO want to start some shit with China over Taiwan and they want Russia to be exahusted by then.
Very dangerous game. As mush as Russia hates the US, they know their eterbal enemy is UK, just lije Mevdeved wrote some weeks ago. Russia is really sick of dozens of british govmts playing the Big Game against them.
If one day shit starts, UK will be erased totally and forever in literally minutes. Not a bad fate if actual shit finally happens, better than to sit and wait.

 

[AlsoTapered]

I had no idea anyone still considered the UK to be a major power.

Someone asked my opinion and I gave it. I did not assert huge, overarching 'truths' with absolutely no evidence whatsoever.

Thus we arrive at Hitchen's Razor AGAIN.

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence.. The burden of proof regarding the truthfulness of a claim lies with the one who makes the claim; if this burden is not met, then the claim is unfounded, and its opponents need not argue further in order to dismiss it.

 

[Señor Moreno]

No, the UK isn't a global power anymore, but the danger is thinking that UE is. There is not such thing as european union to fight Russia. What the UK did for a long time and still does is fucking around russian- NATO bussines trying to hold onto their past. Spain is a joke today but they rhink that they have the main voice in any kind of shit happening in Latam. Imperialist habits die hard.

Didn't heard about that Hitchen's razor, I assume it's some kind of onus probandi, but I found it to be an interesting tesis. I myself have no statement to make nor to defend, but if we are talking about rhe chances of nukes being used if some leader thinks it's needed, then we have the answer at hand: it already happened. It happened even twice in three days. And it was no crazy dictator nor commie, terrorist or barbarian; it was an elected president of a democratic country who did it.
Any event happening in this universe have much more chances of happening again than to be truly unic and not happening ever again. Any event on the Universe.

 

[AlsoTapered]

Thus we arrive at Hitchen's Razor AGAIN... AGAIN.

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence.. The burden of proof regarding the truthfulness of a claim lies with the one who makes the claim; if this burden is not met, then the claim is unfounded, and its opponents need not argue further in order to dismiss it.

Your ignorance of formal logic isn't my problem.

Funny that when someone highlights a post's lack of ANY evidence, the poster's response is another post without a single scruple of evidence. It's almost like they believe that repeatedly telling a lie with make that lie true - a common methodology used in propaganda.

What next? Unironically trying to present a Youtube video as a reliable source...

 

[Señor Moreno]

Your ignorance of formal logic isn't my problem.

Man, not very kind comment.
My ignorance is limited to your language, my fourth, but if you find yourself able to discuss "formal logic" in another languages, we can't try. But I am afraid you don't.

I never tried to argue your point, just wanted to post mine. I also read that you think " we should fight", your own words. You ( and me) are old sick junkies. You ( and me) wouldn't fight for shit as you (and me) would be a burden in any trenche worthing the name. So what you are saying is rhat YOU think that OTHERS, young people with a future, should go fight and die while you (and me) would be sitting at fucking home.
I read it all from your own words but I never called you an ignorant. Or a coward, you know

Let's try and respect everybody,'s opinions, if you fancy,

 

[-=SS=-]

They may claim Transnistria or even Odessa, rhey can bark to the baltics, where apartheid is performed against their nationals. But nothing more. They can defeat Poland and Ukraine, but can't keep hold of them as they are huge and populated nations. How will 145 millons of russians invade and take control of the whole Europe.

Yeah, this notion that Putin (Putler..) is just going to march across Europe.. is fucking ridiculous. Honestly, you have to be literally fucking braindead to buy that line, even the boy who cried wolf didn't cry as many times as the Anglo-American establishment have done over the past several decades about foreign 'threats'.

I had no idea anyone still considered the UK to be a major power.

The UK, no, but the City of London (square mile) is the major world power. It is the seat of global international finance and has been for a very long time. Literally all the worlds dirty money flows through it. The offshore banking system is dominated (and created) by it.

The East India Company (one of the Cities chartered corporations) at one time had an army twice as large as the British army itself, at 260,000 soldiers. It was the entity directly involved in the Indian part of the British empire (obviously). This is their flag.. looks familiar with those red and white stripes, don't you think?

The only thing that changed about British geopolitical power was that we traded in our naval based empire for the offshore financial one instead - we no longer required our own military power because the USA was subverted economically to the City through the Federal Reserve, and the weird twisted world that was established with the military-intelligence industrial complex with its corporations and alliances to the British military-intelligence.

Let's stop being cynical here, peoples of the world know who the imperialist are and were. They know it in Africa, Latam and the "Common"wealth.
Stop pretending we are always the good guys and they the bad ones, cause they are nazis, communist, islamist...

The winners write history.

What people fail to recognise is that the British Empire was never actually militarily defeated. It just sort of.. stopped.. according the conventional wisdom of the 20th century history. Which if you scratch beneath the surface, is nothing more than an assumption build on top of an incomplete understanding of world history.

The British empire was never defeated. It still absolutely dominates the world. The world financial centre is London, and the OG military spy agencies were GCHQ and MI6, which now sit at the top of the 'Five Eyes' global intelligence network.