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  • LAVA Moderator: Shinji Ikari

the market: stocks, bonds, options, whatever

that ETF was a dumb idea in the first place.

now is the time for steep discounts on tech, though.

solid companies for half off. i only regret that i don't have any major assets to liquidate and plow it all into equities now
 
Yea. I think they're hoping to ship some Gen IV reactors. It's an uncharacteristically bold move for the traditionally risk-averse Canadian way of doing business...
 
We're 75% in cash atm. Waiting intently for the %interest rate savings dividend and imminent collapse of the housing market before sweeping in on property again!
 
Got lucky on my MDGL buy yesterday. It's up $9 a share already

Their trials are at least a year ahead of VKTX and they report phase 3 NASH data by the end of this year, and there currently aren't any good FDA approved NASH treatments

Will go up a ton on good data
 
Crypto events? No clue, I have stopped paying attention, makes it easier to just hold my massively red portfolio. I have been thinking about doing some more buy-ins, but was wanting to wait for the bottom. It looks possible that I missed the bottom, but crypto is FULL of fake-outs.

I can't really form an opinion until I get myself back in the game... I know my friend who is obsessed with crypto texted me saying there have been some huge pumps.

But it is looking like ~19-20k is going to be the new bottom... really strong support there. Not that it can't and won't dip lower at times
 
I've decided my next gamble will again be merger arbitrage. I bought Activision stock at $73. If the Microsoft acquisition goes through, it'll be sold at $95.

Other than that, I opened an Interactive Brokers account, and am looking into junk bonds.
 
FgkuwEiWQAA_HMn
 
Man, 37% of small businesses couldn't pay rent in October

Mortgage defaults rising

Then auto loan delinquency rates going up and tons of repossessions

Look at Carvana stock. In 5 years it went from $14 to $350 and now it's under $9

Then the big canary in the coal mine, RV's having huge discounts. Wonder what happens to Camping World stock (CWH)
 
S.J.B. said:
Other than that, I opened an Interactive Brokers account, and am looking into junk bonds.
Click to expand...

let us know how you like it, i've been thinking of setting up an IB account for non-registered trading. i mostly just care how good (open) the API is and whether they let normal account holders use it instead of locking it away behind some "professional" tier.
 
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S.J.B. said:
I've decided my next gamble will again be merger arbitrage. I bought Activision stock at $73. If the Microsoft acquisition goes through, it'll be sold at $95.

Other than that, I opened an Interactive Brokers account, and am looking into junk bonds.
Click to expand...

You are bold my friend, bold!
 
Electrum1 said:
Man, 37% of small businesses couldn't pay rent in October

Mortgage defaults rising

Then auto loan delinquency rates going up and tons of repossessions

Look at Carvana stock. In 5 years it went from $14 to $350 and now it's under $9

Then the big canary in the coal mine, RV's having huge discounts. Wonder what happens to Camping World stock (CWH)
Click to expand...

they keep hiiting me up at the dealership to buy back my car from 2019 so apparently there's still a used car shortage?

but i would totally think that auto loan delinquency rates are up by now
 
Used car prices -10.6% in October

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ManheimUsedVehicleValueIndex-LineGraph.png


Inventories and sales are up

Using estimates of used retail days’ supply based on vAuto data, October ended at 49 days of supply, down from 52 days at the end of September but higher than how October 2021 ended at 40 days. Leveraging Manheim sales and inventory data, wholesale supply is estimated to have ended October at 28 days, higher than how October 2021 ended at 20 days but unchanged from the end of September.

October’s total new-light-vehicle sales were up 9.6% year over year, with one less selling day than in October 2021. By volume, October new-vehicle sales were up 2.9% from September. The October sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), came in at 14.9 million, a 12.7% increase from last year’s 13.2 million and up 9.8% from September’s 13.6 million pace.
Click to expand...

Combined sales into large rental, commercial, and government fleets were up nearly 49% year over year in October. Sales into rental were up 58% year over year, while sales into commercial fleets were also up 58% and sales into government fleets were virtually flat. Including an estimate for fleet deliveries into dealer and manufacturer channels, the remaining retail sales were estimated to be up 5.9%, leading to an estimated retail SAAR of 12.8 million, up 0.9 million from last month’s pace, or 7.4%, and up 1.2 million, or 10.3%, from last year. The fleet share of 14.1% was up 1.9% from last month and was up 2.9% from last year.
Click to expand...
 
Hmm, wonder if this is why a bunch of large corporations waited until very recently to announce big layoffs? FB, Amazon, Banks and a bunch more large employers

 
Bitcoin spiked ~1,000 then dropped ~1,000 in about two hours time due to that FTX/Binance debacle
 
Just put $1720 into an ethereum etf right as bitcoin neared the 52w low. The etf is ETHE. Bought 200 shares 8.60
 
May buy some MSTR for a quick trade too because it moves way more than bitcoin does, so could have a big bounce, we'll see
 
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