Its true, you did say that. I wasn't actually responding to you originally, but I see how it could look like I was so, no big deal
Okay, you don't see why they did. But, they did. They are are sovereign countries that can make alliances how they wish. Maybe they are just wary of Russia being expansionist ( and no the existence of other expansionist countries does not make this any less true), maybe they just want the general peace of mind or maybe they want to slack off on military spending. Remember that after the wall fell, Nato stopped being a anti-russian coalition. It is certainly that again now, but there was a period where it wasn't.
Whats your point anyway? That this somehow makes the invasion more palatable? Because I would certainly disagree with that perspective.
Oh my, not this again. I'm not the media. So why don't we talk about the topic at hand, and not devolve into 'the media is all a lie' like every other thread. Okay, thats out of the way.
This next part is really important, because a lot of people don't seem to understand... Currency IS NOT the economy. The rouble, relative to other currencies, on the global market, has risen by a fair bit. This has been accomplished by brutal capital controls that will help in the short term but will scare away all foreign investment in the long term. Why risk buying stock if by the time you're ready to sell, you can't? Or why open a company in Russia if there's a high chance of the government coming in and forcing you to give up your hard currency in exchange for roubles? This is going to hurt down the road.
Now lets look at the Russian economy. In 2021 it was 25% smaller than it was in 2013. That is a huge decline. Now, the Russian central bank forecast expects that the economy will shrink by another 8-10% this year. It also expects 18-23% inflation I think it was. I posted it a couple pages back, go look or get it right from their website. They also say they expect de-industrialization, a lack of medical equipment, and a lack of airplane parts. Then you have young educated Russian fleeing en masse. And by the way, Russia already had a shrinking and aging population before Feb 24th. They had less people in 2021 than they did in 1992. Okay, so the demographic news is extremely bad. And soon you will have an economy that is 35% smaller than it was 10 years ago...
Lets get back to currency for a sec, because it isn't all good news with that either. A high market rate on your currency is usually good for imports, but Russia isn't importing a lot right now because of sanctions. So the benefit of this appreciated rate, is limited. Then you have the downside, its actually bad for exports. For every $1 of product you sell, you get less roubles to pay your staff and the rest of your bills, which will mostly be in roubles. This is why china intentionally devalues its currency, because it exports more than in imports. So does Russia.
So yeah, this is all not a sign of a healthy economy. They have lots of resources so they'll be able to chug along like Iran but it wont be a picture of prosperity. They have a very specialized economy, making it vulnerable.
Lenin's policies were very different from Stalin's. Lenin was okay with multiculturalism, Stalin wasn't. I doubt the Holodomor would have happened under Lenin but who knows, he wasn't all roses either. If you are a country that is being subjugated and assimilated.. whether its to make you Russian, or Communist, or both, I mean, its pretty bad news either way.
I said it was a big factor, and it is. And not just under Stalin... Ukraine has been under Moscow's thumb many times, under the Russian Empire, under the USSR, and if Putin gets his way, under the Russian Federation too. There has been multiple waves of Russification... Whether its banning Ukrainian in print media or taking it out of schools, or starving people and replacing them with Russians... That is a huge factor. Obviously them being next door, and Russian basically being an offshoot of proto-Ukrainian plays a large part too. I just find it pretty ironic that Putin uses Russian speakers being in Ukraine as justification for going to war, even though they are there partly from previous waves of subjugation.
You sure have your points about russian economy, and your digits are right but remember they are not on this game to win in the short run but to play and survive. People of Russia have the 90s in mind..The citizens know their economy is nothing when compared to the West, but that doesn't mean they are isolated. As You know, China, India, Brazil, South Africa.... are at play too. More than half of human population, living in growing economies... we will need some time to see how things go from now on.
But my point is I honestly thing you are wrong about NATO stopped being an antirussian coalition. The one and only reason for the alliance to exist was USSR, and after it collapsed there was no reason for NATO to keep existing, other than expand to east and surround Russia.
It is even funny to call NATO and alliance, a society, a partnership: we all know Estonia or Albania are as important members as USA and UK, and they are up there with them designing the NATO'S policy and targets. Sure they are.
Only a thing about the sovereignty you attribute to some easter euro countries:
First thing western central potencies did after Berlín Wall felt was reorganizate pre WWI status. Once Germany was again united, they needed their old markets and sattelite countries, wich they see as provinces, if not economic colonies.
The Czech and Slovakia division was not enought and then they (Germany, Austria) encouraged Slovenia and armed Croatia to break Yugoslavia, (a true sovereign nation leading the not aligned countries of the world, with nothing to fear from East or West). Later, NATO and some arab countries supported Bosnian muslims ( training and sending muyahidin from Chechen, Philipinnes..) to fight serbians. They told the world that nations had the right to not be part of Yugoslavia. Fair enought, I agree.. But then, somehow, they denied this very same right to serbian population who didn't want to be part of Croatia or Bosnia.... guess why.... because slovenian and croats are catholic, write latin alphabet and allways have been German friendly, so they are " like us". Instead serbians are orthodox, write cirilic and are russian friendly, so they are " not like us'.
Little, poor countries' govmts in eastern Europe wanted to join UE, thinking (sometimes wrongly, ask bulgarians) they would improve, and then they got blackmailed: Oh, you want UE? Then we want you to join NATO...
I remember a referendum to join or not to join NATO in Spain in the 80s, NATO supporters won. The award was having russian nukes pointing at cities inhabitated by winners and losers of the referendum, but they won and spaniards could vote.
I can be wrong but don't remember the population of eastern nations having that chance to vote. Their financial- politic mafious elites did for them.
Remember we are talking of countries like Montenegro, same population as Baltimore!! they were part of the last Rep.of Yugoslavia, a non socialist/red nation. Western potencies, using italian intelligence services, never stop until they bought the will of the govmt into yes!! doing a referendum!!, but not to choose if they wanted to join a military club, but for split with Serbia, to negate Yugoslavia its Adriatic coast.
To take away sea access from a friend of Russia.
At the same time that they were more than happy with the rupture of a lot of countries in the East, they were hellbent against Belgium to do the same in the West.
Don't valons and flemish have the same right of breaking Belgiun? No, they don't, as it serves as a no man land between German and France. They don't fancy problems there. Because rich, developed countries are fine with war, but not at home.
Finally the policies of Lenin and Stalin about nationalities were not that different.
The main difference was Lenin ruled on a revolutionary and civil war scenario at the same time they were building a new nation, too many open fronts to focus on the nationals matters, while Stalin found a post war landscape and a solidly implanted dictatorship, so he could face the nationalist subject under the official soviet approach, a conspirative nest of bourgoises that need to be neutralized.
At the end of the day, it was Lenin himself who put Stalin at the head of the People's komisariat for Nationalities.
The russification waves you said from old Tsars are a fact, a common one over those places. Ukraine's ancient language, once known as ukrainian (or belarusian) old rutenian was also imposed to polish, romanians, hungarian, slovakian... mimorities aswell.
Of course, no matter what, opinions in one or another sense don't make all this tragedy any more pallatable. It's just that being fair is difficult when we sistematically want to blame one side only.
Let me say you, Prikledlemons, that I enjoy your post very much. I find them and Electrum1's links to euro affairs to be very interesting.
Cheers
the funny yhink,that Stalin is even no russian.It&s was not so well capacity party funtcioner in his own land-Georgia,but rapidly gains control in Soviet's structures
