• Current Events & Politics
    Welcome Guest
    Please read before posting:
    Forum Guidelines Bluelight Rules
  • Current Events & Politics Moderators: deficiT | tryptakid | Foreigner

US Politics The 2020 Trump Presidency Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
^ are you sincerely saying you think that the removal of vindman and sonderland and mccusker's removal from consideration are just part of a new president routinely cleaning house?

which leaves his tweet. And, he is allowed to have an opinion, no?
but it's more than just his opinion if people believe it's direction.

trump has sent the message that tweets from him are official presidential instructions (and the doj has confirmed that tweets from the president are official government statements).

so when trump tweets that the sentencing is problem for him, what are people supposed to think and do? it's more than just his posting an opinion.

alasdair
 
^ are you sincerely saying you think that the removal of vindman and sonderland and mccusker's removal from consideration are just part of a new president routinely cleaning house?

I'm saying it's fully within his power, responsibility, and authority to staff himself with people who are aligned with him, rather than working against him.

I was expecting something different from you, so maybe I'm misreading and therefore misreplying. Is the point of your words 'just part of...'? Meaning do I view this as an organizational changeover and NOT petty striking back? That's what I was expecting, and if that's the point, I do feel there is an element of petty striking back. But that does not change a President's prerogative nor obligation to staff in a way that supports his agenda. Working in the executive branch can be a career, but it is to the winds of who is in office, and if they see you as a benefit or a hindrance.
 
i think it goes to the heart of trump's fragile personality. simply disagreeing with him or criticising him is an attack to be repelled. loyalty is more cherished than honestly and integrity.

it's not like vindman and/or sondland released a critical book or went to the press - they answered a congressional subpoena, showed up and (one hopes) told the truth.

it's bizarre to me - but, these days, hardly surprising - that the president would instruct a member of the executive staff to ignore a congressional subpoena. obviously i'm not a lawyer and it may not be obstruction (with a capital O as in obstruction of justice) but it's certainly obstruction.

i think it's troubling for our constitutional democracy's integrity too. and, finally,m it puts those staff in a rock-and-a-hard-place position. ignoring a congressional subpoena can lead to contempt of congress and potential criminal punishment. so they're faced with having to decide between the wrath of a mercurial president or breaking the law?

for a president and party who talk about the importance of the rule of law, it's yet more laughable hypocrisy.

i'd be particularly interested in your thoughts on the mcclusker case? i think it's different and more troubling...

alasdair
 
Trump seems to be doing ok to be fair.
no major disasters that were predicted by a lot of people here when he first became president.
don’t think he will be going anywhere for quite a while.
 
And, he is allowed to have an opinion, no?
The opinion of the most powerful person in the free world, stated clearly in a tweet is a lot more than just an opinion, particularly when your boss is known for loyalty tests and unceremonious canning of high profile individuals.
Even Barr has stated that he wishes that Trump would stop tweeting, after admitting he personally interfered on Stone’s behalf, which one has to assume is unusual.
 
^ indeed.

it looks like even his own attorney general, william barr, doesn't see it as trump just voicing an opinion on the stone case: After Trump’s Attacks on Justice Dept., Barr Says He Will Not ‘Be Bullied’

The attorney general said that the president’s attacks on prosecutors’ handling of his friend Roger Stone’s sentencing undermine the legal system and the Justice Department.

WASHINGTON — In an extraordinary rebuke of President Trump, Attorney General William P. Barr said on Thursday that Mr. Trump’s attacks on the Justice Department had made it “impossible for me to do my job” and asserted that “I’m not going to be bullied or influenced by anybody.”

Mr. Barr has been among the president’s most loyal allies and denigrated by Democrats as nothing more than his personal lawyer but publicly challenged Mr. Trump in a way that no other sitting cabinet member has.

“I’m not going to be bullied or influenced by anybody,” Mr. Barr said in an interview with ABC News. “And I said, whether it’s Congress, newspaper editorial board, or the president, I’m going to do what I think is right. I cannot do my job here at the department with a constant background commentary that undercuts me.”
...
Mr. Trump’s criticisms “make it impossible for me to do my job and to assure the courts and the prosecutors in the department that we’re doing our work with integrity,” Mr. Barr said.

He added, “It’s time to stop the tweeting about Department of Justice criminal cases.”

countdown to trump exercising his prerogative to staff in a way that supports his agenda and canning the a.g.? 3...2...1...

:)

alasdair
 
I don’t think the dust will settle until a Democratic candidate is selected, but I think the inevitability of Trump is overestimated, and I would never underestimate an incumbent.

Why Trump is very beatable
There is a growing sense among top Republicans and Democrats that President Trump is stronger than ever and very hard to beat this fall, but several data points suggest otherwise.

Why it matters: Amid record-high stock markets and record-low joblessness, Trump trails almost every 2020 Democrat nationally, and is in a statistical tie in swing-state polls.

  • Yes, he has a big early edge in raising money and gaming Facebook to target voters. But Michael Bloomberg is willing to spend $2 billion (some say twice that) to easily level things — and will spend big even if he's not the nominee.
The data points:

  • Trump won in 2016 by 80,000 votes, thanks in part to low Democratic turnout. There is scant evidence he has broadened his base, even as he solidifies it.
  • Trump ties or trails every leading Democrat in virtually every national poll, including a Fox News poll out Jan. 26.
  • In most swing-state polls, Trump is within the margin of error — and often well below 50% — despite a booming economy. In many cases, he trails most of the top-tier candidates.
  • Bloomberg has more money than Trump ever did, and unlike the president, plans to spend it, either on himself or the party’s nominee. Republicans would have no answer financially if he dumps several billion into ads and manpower.
  • There's a significant gap between the optimism about the economy (60%+) and Trump himself, an unusual decoupling for an incumbent. This data point worries top Republicans a lot.
Between the lines: Don’t forget 2018. Democrats enjoyed record turnout and won back the House.

  • After lackluster voter participation in Iowa, Democrats broke the New Hampshire turnout record set in 2008. (But it's worth noting that turnout was on par with recent cycles where only one party had a competitive primary, per the N.Y. Times.)
The bottom line: Trump is no doubt strong and getting stronger, despite impeachment. But Democrats are so traumatized by Trump’s 2016 win that they're overlooking real signs of his vulnerability.

  • Even Bernie Sanders, whose socialism establishment Democrats fear could tank their chances, looks strong against Trump in relevant polls.
 
I don’t think the dust will settle until a Democratic candidate is selected, but I think the inevitability of Trump is overestimated, and I would never underestimate an incumbent.

Why Trump is very beatable


Yeah, I've been saying for a while that I find it strange how people are now just as certain that he will win as they were that he would lose last election. It's like they haven't learned that this is hard to predict.

Trump could definitely win. Especially if the democrats don't put up a strong fight, which is also very plausible.

But trump could also absolutely lose. He didn't win by a particularly large margin to begin with. And at that time there were likely many voters who would have voted Democrat if not for the fact that it'd have meant voting for Hillary specifically. And so thought they could just not vote at all, and let Hillary win without having to vote for her.

Such behavior is much less likely this time.
Also it seems unlikely to me that there will be many who voted against him last time who have since changed their mind. But there could be a not insignificant number who did vote for him and now regret it.

And given his very small victory margin to start with. It wouldn't take much of a drop for him to lose.

So yeah, he could win, but I don't see that it's by any means inevitable.

The danger though is that he'll lose by a small margin, reduce to accept it, and trigger a constitutional crisis by refusing to leave the office.

If he were to lose by a small margin, I have very little faith that he will capitulate and leave. His loyalty is to himself. Not the Republicans, not the voters, not American, and certainly not democracy. He will almost certainly have to be forced out.

Because he's a big, pathetic, bullying toddler.
 
Sticking to the Stone case for a moment,

The Roger Stone Sentencing Fiasco

National Review article that won't link

...

Stone being the sort of Einstein who commits his obstructions in writing (the Credico contacts were mostly text messages), the jury convicted him in nothing flat. That meant DOJ would give the court its take on how the sentencing guidelines applied to the case, as it does with every convicted defendant.

...

In Stone’s case, the guidelines worked a severe result. In tampering cases, a guidelines enhancement calls for a drastic increase in the sentence if the defendant threatened the witness with physical injury. This drove Stone’s “offense level” from 21 to 29 on the guidelines grid, so even though he is a first offender (offense history “Category I” in guidelines-speak), his recommended sentence zoomed to 90 to 108 months — instead of 37 to 46 months, as it would have been at offense level 21 (i.e., without the threats).

With Mueller’s shop closed down, the Stone prosecution was run out of the U.S. attorney’s office for the District of Columbia. But it was still being overseen by two Mueller staffers, Aaron S. J. Zelinsky (on loan from the U.S. attorney’s office in Maryland, where he had worked for Rod Rosenstein, who, as Trump’s deputy attorney general, later appointed Mueller), and Adam C. Jed (an appellate lawyer from the Obama Justice Department who first came to public attention in 2013, arguing that the ban on same-sex marriage was unconstitutional). Also assigned to the case were Jonathan Kravis, a former associate White House counsel to Obama, and Michael Mirando, an experienced assistant U.S. attorney in the D.C. office.

This team of prosecutors filed a sentencing memorandum on Monday, laying out the guidelines and advising Judge Amy Berman Jackson that they called for a prison sentence of about seven to nine years (i.e., the offense-level guidelines range of 90 to 108 months). Like the indictment itself, the memo is gross overkill.

...

With Mueller’s shop closed down, the Stone prosecution was run out of the U.S. attorney’s office for the District of Columbia. But it was still being overseen by two Mueller staffers, Aaron S. J. Zelinsky (on loan from the U.S. attorney’s office in Maryland, where he had worked for Rod Rosenstein, who, as Trump’s deputy attorney general, later appointed Mueller), and Adam C. Jed (an appellate lawyer from the Obama Justice Department who first came to public attention in 2013, arguing that the ban on same-sex marriage was unconstitutional). Also assigned to the case were Jonathan Kravis, a former associate White House counsel to Obama, and Michael Mirando, an experienced assistant U.S. attorney in the D.C. office.

This team of prosecutors filed a sentencing memorandum on Monday, laying out the guidelines and advising Judge Amy Berman Jackson that they called for a prison sentence of about seven to nine years (i.e., the offense-level guidelines range of 90 to 108 months). Like the indictment itself, the memo is gross overkill.

As the Daily Caller’s Chuck Ross notes, the prosecutors tied Stone to “foreign election interference,” breathlessly framed as the “most deadly adversary of republican government,” even though he was never charged with any such crime — underscoring yet again that the deadliest adversary of republican government is actually domestic — viz., the politicized use of executive police powers. Far from offering any theory in mitigation of the 90-to-108-months range, the prosecutors pooh-poohed Credico’s perception that Stone’s threats were not serious, factitiously insisting that the guidelines enhancement is triggered by the threat, not whether the target is actually intimidated. Plus, prosecutors maintained, Stone’s crimes were exacerbated by his flouting of Judge Berman Jackson’s gag orders during the prosecution.

All that said, the prosecutors’ submission was an accurate (if extreme and unyielding) rendition of federal sentencing law. The enhancement that inflates Stone’s sentencing range does literally apply — even if he is not the kind of violent criminal that the guidelines commissioners had in mind when they wrote it. Prosecutors are not required to argue for clemency, though they should do so when the circumstances call for it. The Justice Department’s default position in criminal cases is that the guidelines should be applied as written, and that it is up to the court to decide whether to follow them.

...

Late Tuesday, the DOJ filed a revised sentencing memo, which does not recommend a specific sentence but strongly suggests that a term calculated without the eight-point enhancement — i.e., between 37 and 46 months’ imprisonment — would be just. The new memo concedes that the prosecutors’ calculation in the original memo was “arguably” correct, but contends that it would be unreasonable under the circumstances. On that score, the memo relies on (a) Credico’s dismissal of the threat (though it acknowledges that this is not dispositive); (b) the fact that a sentence driven by the guidelines enhancement would be wildly out of proportion with prison terms imposed in cases similar to Stone’s; (c) Stone’s being a first-offender with no organized-crime or gang connections and thus not typical of the offenders the enhancement is meant to cover; and (d) Stone’s advanced age and failing health.

This is an entirely reasonable recommendation, even if the process of arriving at it has been a train wreck.



Even not quoting the whole article, I kept a lot there. Nut of it is the four notably biased prosecutors submitted the 7-9y recommendation that is technically within the guidelines, albeit at the high end with harshest interpretations of enhancements and reductions.

A link in that article leads to another (link to NYT won't work) that indicates DOJ officials above these four WERE prep'd on the recommended sentence, and that while there was disagreement, none of their superiors forced any edits.

As is customary in prominent prosecutions, the line prosecutors on the Stone case discussed their proposed sentencing recommendation with senior officials. But they apparently came to no clear agreement before the document was filed in court, an outcome that one Justice Department official blamed on a breakdown in management.

Among those involved were Mr. Shea, who took over last week as the United States attorney in Washington; his chief of staff, David Metcalf; the deputy attorney general, Jeffrey A. Rosen; and officials in Mr. Barr’s office, according to people familiar with the discussions who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Both Mr. Shea and officials in Mr. Rosen’s office argued that a prison term of seven to nine years was too harsh but they did not push for any specific punishment, one Justice Department official said.
 
^It’s interesting that everyone from the jury to the career prosecutors are biased, but Trump is just a guy with twitter account and a harmless opinion?
I just don’t see four people withdrawing from a case of it’s on the up and up. One, even two maybe. But not four.
And Barr intervening personally? That is fairly blatant.
 
And Barr intervening personally? That is fairly blatant.

It's also the job of his department, of which he is the head, to ensure things are done properly. I'm not arguing he should personally be involved, but he should be addressing issues within his organization.


As to buckling to the President's whim, it's been pretty evident Barr is not enjoying Trump's tweets, in that it makes his job harder. Notice, he said tweets, not personal direction and micromanagement.

= = = = = =

Something else that may be playing into this....

DOJ won't pursue criminal charges against McCabe


Timing of BOTH getting off without further discipline may be deal making by some.
 
Notice, he said tweets, not personal direction and micromanagement.
I noticed. I just don’t think a tweet from Trump constitutes a mild preference.
Especially from him. His tweets are, like them or not, an expression of his will. I’m sure he conveys what he wants in other ways that are also unambiguous. Are they orders? Or more importantly, how easily can they be ignored?
People generally pay attention when their boss, particularly someone who demands fealty and obedience and can and does regularly fire people in a humiliating way, calls something to their attention.
I would give Barr credit for being less obsequious than Pompeo, but I doesn’t mean he’s any less influenced.
 
I’m sorry but this is the biggest load I’ve seen in awhile. Trump mocks the disabled, ffs.
And this little gem:

“Because it’s not about Him. It’s about those he represents. He knows how to bring people into the tent, not push them out.”

Anyone think it’s not about “Him”? That he brings people into the tent instead of pushing them out? 🤢🤮
Trump has lowered the bar to truly subterranean levels. His supporters gloss over that kind of stuff for some reason.



I wouldn't speak for Trump supporters yet given majority would be Republican (or Democrat disillusioned, whatever, it's very likely that yes this stuff does get glossed over.

Why? Because he is an oaf and has succeeded in pulling that off .

Seems getting caught up in the semantics does mean the major issues ie economy gets glossed over in response. Obama's economical failings got glossed over in the same way.

I dunno man, if the democrats just made a case that he sucks and is embarassing, made americans feel embarrassed then he's probably get fired.
 
I dunno man, if the democrats just made a case that he sucks and is embarassing, made americans feel embarrassed then he's probably get fired.

Thing is, that's what a lot of people say, but his supporters aren't embarrassed and are of the opinion that now the world respects America again because of Trump. Basically at this point there are two separate versions of reality that are mutually exclusive. That's what's so frustrating/alarming.
 
His tweets are, like them or not, an expression of his will. I’m sure he conveys what he wants in other ways that are also unambiguous. Are they orders? Or more importantly, how easily can they be ignored?
People generally pay attention when their boss, particularly someone who demands fealty and obedience and can and does regularly fire people in a humiliating way, calls something to their attention.


Yes, he has the reputation. And, his tweets have a reputation, of often being over the top, absurd, petty, and/or illegal. We have now 3y history of his tweets, and even verbal requests (?) of his direct reports that have been pointed to as lies, unfounded, impossible, and/or illegal. And how many have been called false in the public forum? How many have his subordinates disregarded because they know it isn't right? We likely don't know the count, but we do know they exist. I get your point, he's "The President" and his words mean more than other people's...or at least, they should. I agree. However, he's proven his words are 90% garbage and people do what they know is right regardless of his desires.
 
^ Although I believe the tweets are much more influential for a subordinate (which is basically everyone), I actually don’t think Trump can get rid of Barr easily. He needs someone who won’t defy him (like Sessions did) who at least once had a good reputation in government.

The appearance of impropriety or worse is afoot, but it’s not like Trump cares about it. We’ll see if Barr does, as his involvement with all things Trump in court are finally getting scrutinized heavily. If Barr quits, I’ll know the tide is turning. (I don’t think the tide is turning.)
 
Regarding the election, I think that the Democrats basically have it in the bag unless they do something to reduce their own turnout, which would probably be by nominating Bloomberg. That was basically the tactic that Trump's campaign used to win in 2016: they sponsored "anti-GOTV" efforts to cold-call potential Democratic voters who might be concerned about Hillary's downsides (e.g. by calling black voters with messages about her "superpredator" history).


Most of the candidates this year just don't have those liabilities. Bloomberg has a long and ugly history of being a Republican mayor of NYC. I guess someone could call Sanders a socialist or Buttigieg inexperienced or elitist but frankly those are boring criticisms.

Let's put this into numbers. The Democratic candidates mostly have around -5 - 0% favorability, with Sanders generally leading the pack and Warren the lowest near -8%. Trump has been consistently -10% for the last couple of years.


Hillary Clinton was at -15% in 2016:


There's no way you can be as easily attacked as Hillary. Look at how steeply her line drops after 2014. Pop quiz: what did Hillary do as Secretary of State? Your mind said: "Libya", because it was the most important thing she did during those four years, and it was a huge disaster. The Republicans didn't have to prove anything during the Benghazi hearings other than "Hillary started this". And that's exactly what they did, despite the fact that her relevant misconduct mostly warranted, if anything, a reprimand.

Nobody else has fucked up that bad, except Bloomberg, of course.

We’ll see if Barr does, as his involvement with all things Trump in court are finally getting scrutinized heavily. If Barr quits, I’ll know the tide is turning. (I don’t think the tide is turning.)

I'd guess Barr isn't going to quit or be fired. Rather, he wrote that stuff about Stone because he felt like it and he let McCabe off because he felt like it. William Barr has decided that having defended Trump through the impeachment process and stonewalling Congress, he is invincible and Trump can't fire him, so he can do whatever he wants. And if that's true, then... why not stay?
 
Yeah Bloomberg is a real scumbag. The Democrats would be a fool to embrace that guy, he combines all the worst aspects of authoritarian "nanny state" paternalism with being an absolute ho for the financial services sector, the Chinese government, and probably other shady actors within the national/international economy that I don't know about...he's just an all-around plutocratic scumbag...plus his record on issues related to African Americans, Muslims, etc. while mayor of New York is disturbing and is really indicative of much of what's wrong with the criminal justice system in this country...you heard an analogous claim from Buttigieg during one the last debates, when he was questioned on his record as mayor of South Bend and trotted out that ridiculous excuse of jamming people up on BS marijuana possession cases in order to reduce violent crime (as if anyone believes that horseshit). One can easily see how such an excuse is BS by simply looking at what percentage of stop-and-frisk interactions in NYC during Bloomberg's tenure actually resulted in an arrest for a violent crime...in reality it was just an excuse to keep piping vulnerable people into the grist mill of the criminal justice system, with all the associated benefits for law enforcement, the court and prison system etc. People like Bloomberg really make me sick, I don't think I could ever bring myself to vote for someone like him
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top