... about what bots you can use and the math behind it...
Oh, alright ..... Here we go. Let's talk maths. Warning, contains equations. No responsibility accepted for any 8( nor
as a result of reading this post. The equations have lots of variables in them, but only require adding, subtracting, multiplying and dividing (and remembering that you multiply things before you add them.)
Suppose the odds on an event upon which you are betting are M:N. That means if you put a bet of £N on and your prediction was correct, you win £M plus your £N stake back. So the total prize P for a stake of £S is given by
In an accumulator, the prize money from each event (not including the returned stake, which is only added to the final prize) is used as the stake for the next event. So in a 3-way accumulator, with odds of M
1:N
1, M
2:N
2 and M
3:N
3, the prize is given by
Code:
P = S * (1 + [PLAIN][[/PLAIN]M[sub]1[/sub] * M[sub]2[/sub] * M[sub]3[/sub][PLAIN]][/PLAIN] / [PLAIN][[/PLAIN]N[sub]1[/sub] * N[sub]2[/sub] * N[sub]3[/sub][PLAIN]][/PLAIN]) {2}
= S * (M[sub]1[/sub] * M[sub]2[/sub] * M[sub]3[/sub] + N[sub]1[/sub] * N[sub]2[/sub] * N[sub]3[/sub]) / N[sub]1[/sub] * N[sub]2[/sub] * N[sub]3[/sub]
Now, if you want to provide full cover for three events, you would also place three two-way accumulators and three individual bets -- this is known as a Lucky Seven. Full cover for four events involves eleven accumulators (= 1 + 4 + 6) plus four individual bets -- this is known as a Yankee.
Often, you don't need full cover, because you are confident enough in one or more of your predictions for it not to be worth covering certain lines. If you create your own permutations ("perms") then you can also adjust the stake on each line; so that whichever of them is correct, the amount you win will be the same. If we rearrange equation {2}, then we get
Code:
S = P * N[sub]1[/sub] * N[sub]2[/sub] * N[sub]3[/sub] / (N[sub]1[/sub] * N[sub]2[/sub] * N[sub]3[/sub] + M[sub]1[/sub] * M[sub]2[/sub] * M[sub]3[/sub]) {3}
which allows us to calculate the stake £S required, on a combination of events with odds M
1:N
1, M
2:N
2 ..... M
n:N
n, to win a total prize of £P.
I had a system for betting on the fixed-odds football coupons. This coupon has the odds of a home win, away win or draw for each match being played on a particular day, and you can cover any combination of results; although there is usually a minimum of three matches, or five if any of your selection includes a home win.
A football match can have three possible outcomes: A home win, a draw or an away win. The home team often have the advantage of familiar turf (literally!) but on any given match day, there are bound to be some matches where a weak team are entertaining a stronger visiting team. These are likely to result in an away win or a draw.
My system involved picking four most likely home wins and one most likely away win, or three most likely home wins and two most likely away wins; and then saying that any one of those matches could end up being a draw (but your predictions should be sound enough as a team you are sure will win, will at least manage to hold their opponents).
Call the odds for a win (home or away, as applicable) M
W1:N
W1, M
W2:N
W2, M
W3:N
W3, M
W4:N
W4 and M
W5:N
W5
and the odds for a draw M
D1:N
D1, M
D2:N
D2, M
D3:N
D3, M
D4:N
D4 and M
D5:N
D5. Then you need to cover the following lines:
W1, W2, W3, W4, W5
D1, W2, W3, W4, W5
W1, D2, W3, W4, W5
W1, W2, D3, W4, W5
W1, W2, W3, D4, W5
W1, W2, W3, W4, D5
and possibly, if you have called both matches 4 and 5 as away wins, you might want to cover
W1, W2, W3, D4, D5
as well; just in case
both home teams you picked to lose end up scoring late equalisers. It probably will work out cheap to cover this line.
In each case, you modify equation {3} by extending it to five events; and then use it to calculate your stake S
n on each line, using the appropriate win or draw odds for each match, so as to win the same total prize P whichever line comes up.
Code:
S = P * N[sub]1[/sub] * N[sub]2[/sub] * N[sub]3[/sub] * N[sub]4[/sub] * N[sub]5[/sub] / (N[sub]1[/sub] * N[sub]2[/sub] * N[sub]3[/sub] * N[sub]4[/sub] * N[sub]5[/sub] + M[sub]1[/sub] * M[sub]2[/sub] * M[sub]3[/sub] * M[sub]4[/sub] * M[sub]5[/sub]) {4}
If all five of your selected matches can go as predicted, or even if any one of them turns out to be a draw, you will win the same prize.
Probably the easiest thing to do is make up a spreadsheet in LibreOffice Calc (and I'm not really a fan of spreadsheets. But, I have written a program to automatically generate a spreadsheet of sales figures and e-mail it to a tie-wearer. He likes spreadsheets and reports. And I basically get to skive off for as long as he thinks it would have taken me to compile the sheet by hand. Which I did once or twice, just to be sure I knew how to do it properly; then I wrote a program to get the computer to do it all for me). The various M and N figures can be entered into cells, with another cell where you enter the amount you wish to win. Then, you just use "=" formulas to work out the amount that you must stake on each line in order to secure the desired prize.
