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The spread

ArCi

ArCi

Bluelighter
Joined
Feb 17, 2012
Messages
16,100
You don't need to pick every game of the week.. Just need 60 picks minimum by the end of the season. The goal is to end up with a winning percentage over 52.4% (break-even point). All of your bets should be on the VI Consensus line. Good luck.

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Jacksonville +4
Green Bay -7
Detroit/Seattle under 43
Carolina -3
Philadelphia -3
 
ArCi said:
Jacksonville +4
Green Bay -7
Detroit/Seattle under 43
Carolina -3
Philadelphia -3
Click to expand...

Win
Win
Win
Win
Loss

4-1

What we learned:

Don't bet on the Eagles ever again.
Lions and Seahawks offense is just as bad as I thought.
Giants might win their next 4-5 games.
The Colts fucking suck.
 
what is the '-10' after the spread in this table e.g. nyg are '-7-10'? i've never seen that on spread lines before.

alasdair
 
I'm assuming it represents the last two digits of the odds, since spread bets are typically -110 odds (bet 11 to win 10). So -10 is really -110, -20 is actually -120, +05 is actually +105, EV is obviously Even.. Etc.


Kind of annoying, but yeah I think that's what it is. I'm just a fan of VI's setup on their spread sheet. It's very clean
 
lol @ Eagles being 4 point favorites
 
arci, that's what i figured but in every game, both teams are minus which means both teams are favorites. weird.

also, why the 'u' after the over-under? everybody knows it's the points...

alasdair
 
Sea +3
Ne -8.5
Ari -2.5 and the under 44
Atl -7.5

Great idea for a thread!!!
 
jax +3
ari -2.5
cle +6.5
ne -8.5
nyg -7
sd -3

probably easiest if everybody just scores themselves and keeps track of their own cumulative scores? 100 picks seems like a lot, arci? how about 50 or 60?

alasdair
 
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Under 46 pack rams
Arizona -2.5
Washington +7.5
NO + 4.5
Pit +3
 
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Buffalo -2.5
Arizona -2.5
Denver -4.5
Seattle +3
 
Buffalo -2.5
Tampa Bay -3
Philadelphia -4.5
New England -8.5
San Diego -3
 
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alasdairm said:
arci, that's what i figured but in every game, both teams are minus which means both teams are favorites. weird.

also, why the 'u' after the over-under? everybody knows it's the points...

alasdair
Click to expand...

The spread tries to make both teams even by giving or taking away points from the team. So really what it's doing is eliminating the underdog that you see on the money line.

Both sides of the spread are at (-110) odds because it is a 50/50 bet. The extra 10 is the books cut... The 'juice'. The odds aren't always at (-110/-110) on the spread though... sometimes you see it change to (-105/-115), (EV/-120), (+105/-125)

The reason for these changes in the odds is because of the amount of money being placed on one side. If one side of the spread is receiving most of the bets, the books will continue to increase its odds to -115,-120,-125 etc until one side receives so many bets, the books are forced to increase the spread by a half point or full point(-6.5 to -7). The reason books do this is an attempt to lure more people into placing money on the other side of the spread to even out out the money. That is the main goal for all books... to get the same amount of money on both sides of the spread, because they will always win by getting their cut. Notice that the median value of the odds on the spread is always -110.

Simple example:

$11000 bet on Team A
$11000 bet on Team B
Team B wins.... They get $10,000 and the book gets their cut of $1,000. Obviously the numbers are never exactly even like that but you get the point.

alasdairm said:
probably easiest if everybody just scores themselves and keeps track of their own cumulative scores? 100 picks seems like a lot, arci? how about 50 or 60?

alasdair
Click to expand...

You're probably right. 100 would have been better if we did it at the beginning of the season. 60 sounds good.
 
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Here is a good example of how often the odds change. This is the upcoming game between Buffalo and Tennesee. Everything in red represents any time there was a change

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