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DEA 2020 National Drug Threat Assessment - 2 March 2021

dalpat077

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Joined
Oct 14, 2019
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3,092
It’s finally out. For those not familiar with it: probably the most comprehensive intelligence report published annually. Say what you like about them: they’re thorough compared to other agencies (this based on previous annual intelligence reports published anyway).

Have not had the pleasure of reading said new report. Tomorrow is another day. Keen to see if there is any specific info. relating to changes in drug trends and usage patterns as a result of the COVID pandemic. Among other trends of course.

 
"The domestic market for fentanyl overlaps with most of the major white powder heroin markets. However, in select areas, law enforcement and public health officials report fentanyl is either supplanting or has surpassed a significant portion of the pre-established heroin market, including in DEA Field Divisions in the Northeast (New England, New Jersey, New York, Philadelphia) and Midwest (St. Louis, Chicago)."

The spread of fentanyl is partly due to basic economics: Unlike heroin, which requires careful cultivation of poppy fields, synthetic opioids can be cheaply manufactured on an industrial scale with basic chemical knowhow. It costs $3,000 to $4,000 to produce a kilo of fentanyl — the same cost as to produce a kilo of heroin, according to Russ Baer, a DEA spokesman. That kilo of heroin sells in the US for $60,000 or more, with a street value of several hundred thousand dollars when diluted and sold by the gram. But fentanyl's extreme potency means it can be cut and split into many more kilos, increasing a dealer's profi

That one kilo of fentanyl can produce between 15 vand 24 kilos [of drug product] ultimately yeilding profits of $1.3 million after sold on the streets. Baer said "its more lucrative than herion."
Sensing a business opportunity, Mexican gangsters — Baer singled out the Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation cartels — have ramped up fentanyl production, either importing the finished product directly from China, where it is manufactured
vice 2016

America's new deadliest drug is fentanyl (vice.com)

Reading through this so i will post as I go
 
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:The outbreak of COVID-19 has disproportionately affected methamphetamine markets compared to other drugs of abuse. Many DEA Field Divisions report changes in pricing for methamphetamine at the wholesale and retail levels. However, based on reports of limited impact to overall supply of precursor chemicals and finished methamphetamine, TCOs likely capitalized on the pandemic in order to drive up methamphetamine’s generally low price and in turn, their profits."

Even the tweak rebaggers are claimed to be employing the covid excuse. It seams to enjoy an unprecedented justification. .
 
Mexicans cartels get blamed for so much, I wonder when the Americans are gonna invade.
 
Well that was a good read.

Hats off to them for thoroughness and presentation (as always). And not to mention for making this information publicly available.

While it requires yet another read (and probably another and then another) some points just off the top of my head (and in no particular order):

The purity of some of the Fentanyl seizures is but one reason why I've cautioned here more than once when somebody says they're shooting up what would be considered a heroic dose when compared to Fentanyl's LD50 in humans. It's misleading and dangerous. While it's import purity is high: street purity is a whole other story and by a huge margin.

Never thought I'd see the day where it'd be purported that Herion could very well become an adulterant to Fentanyl. How about that one!

I think it admirable that they took a softer stance as a result of the pandemic on various opiate related treatments and prescriptions etc. While they may not be the most popular organization around on a forum such as this: they're not inhumane either it would seem. And based on this report (in addition to what was discussed on another thread with their new operation): am I detecting a slightly more understanding tone? And possibly one that's more focused on eliminating the criminality and violence associated with the drug trade as opposed to nailing your average user or addict to the cross given half the chance? Just an impression i.e. have never had the privilege of dealing with the DEA so you mileage and experience as a US citizen or resident may differ!

I notice the use of the word "decrease" in many instances and sections for the period under review. The exact reasons in these instances and sections could be due to any number of factors and some of which are explained or hypothesized. Could be they're having an impact on the drug trade in certain instances and sections. Or could be the criminal element are just getting better at what they're doing. Just musings i.e. neither are statements of fact nor opinions.

I am extremely surprised at the value of marijuana and how much can be made in a year from just a few plants both in quantity and value. Compare that to Cocaine or Heroin production and all that's involved. Astounding. Well to me anyway bearing in mind that marijuana (legal or no) has been a part of the culture forever and a day and is for all intent and purposes a benign substance (as I say: to me anyway). Don't worry. Never been on my radar and not my field of interest! :)

The most concerning of all that jumps out at me overall are fakes and the NPS stuff.

Gives one a very different perspective when you look at the entire picture and all that's involved. This as opposed to making assumptions based on a few forum posts, sensationalist media reports, and wannabe YouTube celebrities.

Oh well. As noted. Those my initial observations and off the top of my head after my initial reading said intelligence report.

For those that are into this type of thing and have the time the UNODC releases an annual report also. A link to their 2020 report is below (all six volumes of it). But it was actually published in 2020 so a bit behind the times and no point in starting a thread for it i.e. will wait for the 2021 report.

 
I think it admirable that they took a softer stance as a result of the pandemic on various opiate related treatments and prescriptions etc. While they may not be the most popular organization around on a forum such as this: they're not inhumane either it would seem. And based on this report (in addition to what was discussed on another thread with their new operation): am I detecting a slightly more understanding tone? And possibly one that's more focused on eliminating the criminality and violence associated with the drug trade as opposed to nailing your average user or addict to the cross given half the chance?

I'd say that, generally-speaking, there's been a positive shift in American drug policy over the past decade or so. I'd say that your ability to get leniency from the court as just a retail user is much better than it was even ten years ago. The narrative of drug abuse as predominantly a public health issue is a lot more influential, as is the understanding that the "war on drugs" had many (unintended?) negative consequences on American society.

But, on the other hand, there's also been some negative developments, such as the media hysteria over the "opioid epidemic", a clampdown on prescription opioids by the feds and states, etc. So, not all good by any means. But there are many positive developments in regards to the issue IMO, over the past decade...cannabis legalization movement was probably the most notable, but also the experimentation that's been going on in the American west in regards to generalized drug decriminalization etc, applications of psychedelic hallucinogens in medical research, etc.

It's one of the few issues in American public life where I think the discourse has actually improved and matured in recent years. Maybe even literally the only issue where that's the case lol. The enthusiasm of the American public for the "drug war" has waned, and I think that it has had an effect on entities like the DEA, and maybe you can see some of those changes in their rhetoric or how they choose to frame the issue. They still represent a failed ideology in regards to the issue, though
 
"DTOs may come to view heroin as simply an adulterant to fentanyl."

If it wasn't so fucked up it would be comical. But it is really fucked up prospect and I empathise with USA heroin users (addicts, abusers...use preferred term). Hope that it doesn't happen but this is why some sort of regulations are needed.
 
"DTOs may come to view heroin as simply an adulterant to fentanyl."

If it wasn't so fucked up it would be comical. But it is really fucked up prospect and I empathise with USA heroin users (addicts, abusers...use preferred term). Hope that it doesn't happen but this is why some sort of regulations are needed.
Yip. That point about Fentanyl seems to have jumped out to most of us that have gone to the trouble of reading the report! Who would have thought! :)
 
I’m probably gonna start digging through this one over the weekend and wondering if anyone who has read through the whole beast (looking at you @dalpat077 ) has any particular interesting sections in mind? Or perhaps just best read in the order presented?
 
if anyone who has read through the whole beast
Of course. What a question! 🤣

I think the entire thing, in order and as presented, is worth the read. But then I would say that huh i.e. it's no secret the entire business fascinates me.

And they do go to a lot of trouble and provide much detail. You being you and all: you'll probably get it all in a single read! Trust me: the older you get the harder it is to concentrate and absorb stuff! 🤣

I already mentioned (somewhere above) those particular things that jumped out at me upon my first read.

More general observations though:

The Cocaine business is alive and well and steady as she goes really. Always comforting and a good sign. The usual suspects still the producers. The usual cunts still responsible for cutting it. You get the picture. Matter of fact: it was given more attention and detail in last year's report than this one. And which I will admit was a little disappointing (usually it's that section I head to first but resisted the temptation this year! 😇 ).

Methamphetamine production, distribution, purity, and use seems to be barreling ahead like a freight train. And from what I gather: we're not talking about your average village idiot that's decided to get into the meth. business either. I get the impression there's some pretty accomplished chemists around that are consistently innovative. One thing that just came to mind: it sort of puts paid to the idea that one could start a little home industry producing the shit i.e. most of the one-pot-home-bake stuff is good for a few grams at best.

Not sure what to make of the Heroin statistics i.e. decreased usage and deaths in most places. Obviously I'm in no position to argue with the experts. But I've a funny feeling that those statistics are slightly skewed in the sense that Fentanyl is indeed a huge, and growing, problem. Many have noticed this above and commented on it.

The weed business took me by surprise overall. If you just look at the statistics and the map of the USA you'll see what I mean. Spend enough time on these forums and it's easy to make the assumption that it's really only found in a those few States where they're relaxing the laws. But it's all over the show. And of course: it's not enough to just have weed i.e. now it seems as though there's a competition to see who can produce the most potent (THC).

The money laundering stuff was interesting. Technology strikes again! Love the part where some dudes have their own ATM's into which they can deposit cash that turns to Bitcoin! But you'll get to that.

Bear in mind: the COVID part is really only covered for half the report as I recall. I thought these reports ran from calendar year to calendar year but that doesn't seem to be the case.

Anyway. The above also just off the top of my head this morning i.e. been out of the loop for two or so days thanks to some or the other Internet shit going on here with Google or whatever (only came right late yesterday and trying to catch up now on notifications).

Enjoy.

And obviously your comments and insights would be highly appreciated and relevant.

Goes without saying of course: loads of other very interesting stuff on their website. Don't be scared. Trust me. And hard as this may be for some here to swallow or as unpalatable a statement as this may be to some: I don't think the DEA is necessarily the enemy. Having read through a lot of their stuff I've come the conclusion that without these Agents busting their chops and balls and putting their lives in danger in dealing with some choice individuals: it'd be like going back to the days of the Wild West. And for damn sure there'd be a whole lot more Fentanyl, and the equivalent or worse when it comes to these new research chemicals, on the streets (in that report there's a new benzo. that's turned up that's just as powerful and just as deadly) (and that, I suppose, will have the entire site here downloading the report! 🤣 ). Think about that one for a minute. If you look at the economics as detailed: it's by far more lucrative than any naturally derived product. And (dare I say the Cocaine industry aside) the producers don't give a fuck about anything other than profit.
 
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Methamphetamine production, distribution, purity, and use seems to be barreling ahead like a freight train. And from what I gather: we're not talking about your average village idiot that's decided to get into the meth. business either. I get the impression there's some pretty accomplished chemists around that are consistently innovative. One thing that just came to mind: it sort of puts paid to the idea that one could start a little home industry producing the shit i.e. most of the one-pot-home-bake stuff is good for a few grams at best.
I was hoping for a more detailed explanation of the current methamphetamine manufacturing process. Seems like they don't want to share too many details (which is understandable), or maybe they haven't been able to make much progress ever since the 2017 Drug Threat Assessment.

Cartels are exporting very pure d-meth produced exclusively via reductive amination. Reductive amination usually gives a mixture of levo and dextro meth, which means they're separating the 2 enantiomers on a multi-kilogram/multi-ton scale.
But what are they doing with all the l-meth?
Wasting it doesn't make sense, so the resulting l-meth it's either being racemized into a mixture of dextro&levo which is then separated again (this entire process of separation + racemization would have to he repeated multiple times)... Or they're converting l-meth back into p2p/ephedrine or some other precursor which is then converted into a mixture of dextro&levo, rinse and repeat...

There's another possibility that comes to mind.
They could be using a special catalyst which allows for a stereoselective reductive amination, such process would only produce d-meth. In my opinion this would be the most integillent and efficient approach, at least in theory. In practice it might be pretty difficult to do this on an industrial scale, since we're talking about an illicit operation.
I'd really like to know more about logistics of a super lab.
 
I was hoping for a more detailed explanation of the current methamphetamine manufacturing process.
It's not some new edition of one of Uncle Fester's guides! 🤣

The rest (of your post), I'm afraid, and as I'm sure you well know, is all way above my pay grade, knowledge, expertise, and possibly even IQ! :unsure:

It's great when facts and figures bear out anecdotal or real life accounts though. I was just reading a new post on another (what was almost a corpse) thread wherein it was being noted that five years ago or more: Methamphetamine wasn't an issue. And I was immediately reminded of the statistics in this report and the graphs.
 
@dalpat077
Yeah, all in all, I think those DEA reports are pretty well done. For some reason I've always enjoyed looking at graphs/charts lol.

On the other hand I'm convinced that they aren't telling us everything, they probably have a confidential version of the report... I guess publishing a more detailed version could compromise ongoing investigations.
There's also the (very) possible complicity of some branches of the chinese and mexican governments.
 
Of course. What a question! 🤣

I think the entire thing, in order and as presented, is worth the read. But then I would say that huh i.e. it's no secret the entire business fascinates me.

And they do go to a lot of trouble and provide much detail. You being you and all: you'll probably get it all in a single read! Trust me: the older you get the harder it is to concentrate and absorb stuff! 🤣

I already mentioned (somewhere above) those particular things that jumped out at me upon my first read.

More general observations though:

The Cocaine business is alive and well and steady as she goes really. Always comforting and a good sign. The usual suspects still the producers. The usual cunts still responsible for cutting it. You get the picture. Matter of fact: it was given more attention and detail in last year's report than this one. And which I will admit was a little disappointing (usually it's that section I head to first but resisted the temptation this year! 😇 ).

Methamphetamine production, distribution, purity, and use seems to be barreling ahead like a freight train. And from what I gather: we're not talking about your average village idiot that's decided to get into the meth. business either. I get the impression there's some pretty accomplished chemists around that are consistently innovative. One thing that just came to mind: it sort of puts paid to the idea that one could start a little home industry producing the shit i.e. most of the one-pot-home-bake stuff is good for a few grams at best.

Not sure what to make of the Heroin statistics i.e. decreased usage and deaths in most places. Obviously I'm in no position to argue with the experts. But I've a funny feeling that those statistics are slightly skewed in the sense that Fentanyl is indeed a huge, and growing, problem. Many have noticed this above and commented on it.

The weed business took me by surprise overall. If you just look at the statistics and the map of the USA you'll see what I mean. Spend enough time on these forums and it's easy to make the assumption that it's really only found in a those few States where they're relaxing the laws. But it's all over the show. And of course: it's not enough to just have weed i.e. now it seems as though there's a competition to see who can produce the most potent (THC).

The money laundering stuff was interesting. Technology strikes again! Love the part where some dudes have their own ATM's into which they can deposit cash that turns to Bitcoin! But you'll get to that.

Bear in mind: the COVID part is really only covered for half the report as I recall. I thought these reports ran from calendar year to calendar year but that doesn't seem to be the case.

Anyway. The above also just off the top of my head this morning i.e. been out of the loop for two or so days thanks to some or the other Internet shit going on here with Google or whatever (only came right late yesterday and trying to catch up now on notifications).

Enjoy.

And obviously your comments and insights would be highly appreciated and relevant.

Goes without saying of course: loads of other very interesting stuff on their website. Don't be scared. Trust me. And hard as this may be for some here to swallow or as unpalatable a statement as this may be to some: I don't think the DEA is necessarily the enemy. Having read through a lot of their stuff I've come the conclusion that without these Agents busting their chops and balls and putting their lives in danger in dealing with some choice individuals: it'd be like going back to the days of the Wild West. And for damn sure there'd be a whole lot more Fentanyl, and the equivalent or worse when it comes to these new research chemicals, on the streets (in that report there's a new benzo. that's turned up that's just as powerful and just as deadly) (and that, I suppose, will have the entire site here downloading the report! 🤣 ). Think about that one for a minute. If you look at the economics as detailed: it's by far more lucrative than any naturally derived product. And (dare I say the Cocaine industry aside) the producers don't give a fuck about anything other than profit.
Yeah I really need to put aside my pride and see what the DEA has to say. They are after all the ones tasked with doing this as their full time job.

I’ll report back once I’ve read it!
 

not really news, but I found this old dea report on opium production in SE Asia. Some very interesting history in there...

as to this report - I realized I never wrote back :/ one thing I’d like to see more is this methamphetamine profiling program (pg 21). I may be completely wrong here but I feel like I’ve heard that meth quality in the US has been going up in recent years? Heroin is being replaced with fentalogues, I wonder if any cheaper stimulant could become that commonplace in meth?
 
None the drugs I use are in that besides a single mention of typtamines. They don't mention lysergamides at all. Are there really more people doing gas station cathinones than 1p-LSD or 4-ACO-DMT? I admit I am more aware of online drug groups than what is happening on the "street", but there are thousands of posts every day on Reddit about lysergmides, it can't be under their radar.
 
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