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The 2017/2018 NFL thread

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alasdairm

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previous thread: The 2016/2017 NFL thread v.... Brady's Revenge

football is almost upon us!

will the patriots repeat?

new-england-patriots-logo-DA92E2D627-seeklogo.com.png


who will win the afc/nfc? who wins the superbowl?

who do you like? who do you dislike?

bold predictions?

alasdair
 
No.

Pitt wins AFC
Sea wins NFC

Bills boldly sweep the Pats in the reg season.
If they meet in playoffs the pats win obviously, though.

G'morning ali
 
what are pittsburgh going to do differently? new england beat them handily in the afc game and beat them in pittsburgh mid-season last season. pats play the steelers in week 15 this season...

seattle still look good and i think they'll be in the last 4 in the nfc.

bills are improving but losing gillislee to new england has to sting. i'd happily bet that buffalo does not sweep new england regular season. i think they go 7-9, maybe 8-8 at best.

i think the giants are primed to do well this season and could compete for the nfc.

alasdair
 
I don't think the Steelers have to do anything different, other than figure out how to beat the pats.

Losing gillislee in general stings, especially to the pats...

I think I'll put $1000 on them winning more than the 6 Vegas has them at. I think for sure they can get to 7 (kind of sad that it will be another year before a chance at the playoffs).
 
I don't think the Steelers have to do anything different, other than figure out how to beat the pats.
and rich people are exactly the same as poor people other than the fact that they have lots more money :)

I think I'll put $1000 on them winning more than the 6 Vegas has them at. I think for sure they can get to 7 (kind of sad that it will be another year before a chance at the playoffs).
here's their schedule:

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@atl
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@lac
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mia
@ne
@mia

i put what i think are their wins in bold. i was generous and gave them both jets games and a split with both new england and miami. which games do you have them winning to get to 7? i also gave them tampa and that's no gimme and they might beat the colts but i doubt it. they could beat the chargers but doing that on the road will be tough too.

they're lucky that all 4 games against miami and new england don't start until week 12 when they should be up to speed.

i'm excited to watch the afc west this year and the nfc east - both look to be tight divisions and anybody's for the taking.

alasdair
 
and rich people are exactly the same as poor people other than the fact that they have lots more money :)

here's their schedule:

nyj
@car
den
@atl
@cin
tam
oak
@nyj
no
@lac
@kc
ne
ind
mia
@ne
@mia

i put what i think are their wins in bold. i was generous and gave them both jets games and a split with both new england and miami. which games do you have them winning to get to 7? i also gave them tampa and that's no gimme and they might beat the colts but i doubt it. they could beat the chargers but doing that on the road will be tough too.

they're lucky that all 4 games against miami and new england don't start until week 12 when they should be up to speed.

i'm excited to watch the afc west this year and the nfc east - both look to be tight divisions and anybody's for the taking.

alasdair

i see that both sentences have other than in them, but other than that there is very little in common with those statements. Both teams have an embarrassment of riches and coaching on both sides of the ball. Football has many factors to it and just because your team beat the other team last year means very little.

nyj
@car
den
@atl
@cin
tam
oak
@nyj
no
@lac
@kc
ne
ind
mia
@ne
@mia

On top of the games you picked I underlined the games that I would put at worst 50/50
 
my point was the silliness of saying "other than" when you're basically discounting the one thing that makes the point...

you think they can go 9-7? we'll see.

alasdair
 
I like the raiders as an underdog pick at the Super Bowl. They will make the playoffs at the very least.


I have some hope that philly will be improved on offense this year but since we didn't upgrade the defensive secondary I just don't see a playoff berth happening. Only chance is if the rest of the division takes a big step backward which the Giants and Redskins may do but the Cowboys appear loaded.

This year will be one of the first years in a while without a clearly dominant team IMO. With so many aging superstar quarterbacks I think we will start seeing a changing of the guard away from Brady, Manning, Roethlisburger, and Bree's.
 
^ i think the nfc east is going to be one of the most exciting divisions to watch this season.

chargers make the playoffs

you can ban me for a month if they dont
you talk big talk about the chargers every year and every year they disappoint.

that said, i think the chargers will play well this year - maybe 8-8 or 9-7. but even at 9-7 we'll probably see them remain in last place in the division.

alasdair
 
Nfc- packers
Afc- steelers

Sounds great to me

2018 Super Bowl Odds Futures to Win Super Bowl LII
NFL Futures Odds For Winning Super Bowl 52 (LII)
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN, 2/4/2018


Arizona Cardinals +$3,200 (32 to 1)
Atlanta Falcons +$1,300 (13 to 1)
Baltimore Ravens +$4,000 (40 to 1)
Buffalo Bills +$9,000 (90 to 1)
Carolina Panthers +$3,000 (30 to 1)
Chicago Bears +$12,500 (125 to 1)
Cincinnati Bengals +$5,500 (55 to 1)
Cleveland Browns +$30,000 (300 to 1)
Dallas Cowboys +$1,000 (10 to 1)
Denver Broncos +$1,800 (18 to 1)
Detroit Lions +$7,000 (70 to 1)
Green Bay Packers +$1,200 (12 to 1)
Houston Texans +$1,500 (15 to 1)
Indianapolis Colts +$3,000 (30 to 1)
Jacksonville Jaguars +$9,000 (90 to 1)
Kansas City Chiefs +$2,500 (25 to 1)
Los Angeles Chargers +$8,000 (80 to 1)
Los Angeles Rams +$15,000 (150 to 1)
Miami Dolphins +$6,000 (60 to 1)
Minnesota Vikings +$3,000 (30 to 1)
New England Patriots +$350 (7 to 2)
New Orleans Saints +$5,000 (50 to 1)
New York Giants +$2,200 (22 to 1)
New York Jets +$15,000 (150 to 1)
Oakland Raiders +$1,500 (15 to 1)
Philadelphia Eagles +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Pittsburgh Steelers +$1,800 (18 to 1)
San Francisco 49ers +$30,000 (300 to 1)
Seattle Seahawks +$1,200 (12 to 1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +$3,000 (30 to 1)
Tennessee Titans +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Washington Redskins +$6,000 (60 to 1)

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_futures_odds_super_bowl_lii.shtml


34 days 1 hour 32 minutes and 20 sec till kickoff
 
Detroit Lions schedule:

Sun. Sept. 10, Arizona, 1 p.m. (FOX)
Mon. Sept. 18, at N.Y. Giants, 8:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Sun. Sept. 24, Atlanta, 1 p.m. (FOX)
Sun. Oct. 1, at Minnesota, 1 p.m. (FOX)
Sun. Oct. 8, Carolina, 1 p.m. (FOX)
Sun. Oct. 15, at New Orleans, 1 p.m. (FOX)
Sun. Oct. 29, Pittsburgh, 8:30 p.m. (NBC)
Mon. Nov. 6, at Green Bay, 8:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Sun. Nov. 12, Cleveland, 1 p.m. (CBS)
Sun. Nov. 19, at Chicago, 1 p.m. (FOX)
Thur. Nov. 23, Minnesota, 12:30 p.m. (FOX)
Sun. Dec. 3, at Baltimore, 1 p.m. (FOX)
Sun. Dec. 10, at Tampa Bay, 1 p.m. (FOX)
Sat. Dec. 16, Chicago, 4:30 p.m. (NFL)
Sun. Dec. 24, at Cincinnati, 1 p.m. (FOX)
Sun. Dec 31, Green Bay, 1 p.m. (FOX)

The beginning stretch is rough, but I think we have a good shot at making the playoffs again. I like that we play our away game against the Packers early in the season, and our traditional week 17 game against them is at home. We always do much better when it goes in that order. We should smoke the Vikings on Thanksgiving again.

Week 2, tho, is a Monday Night Football game against the Giants. Lions have a tendency to choke when we have national attention. Team morale is going to really hinge on what happens in that game.

Another game where we will be under the national spotlight is a Sunday Night Football home game against Pittsburgh in week 8. Normally I would be nervous about that, but we have a week 7 bye. With an extra week to study I think we ha EA a great shot at beating them. Which would again be a huge morale boost for the team.
 
^ your first 8 games are brutal. but great teams rise to a challenge like that so you have a chance to demonstrate greatness.

vikings d looks pretty good - most rankings have the at about 5 or 6. not too shabby.

you have so much talent on your team. marvin jones killed it for me in fantasy last year until they just stopped using him. hope he sees some targets. tate is no slouch and ebron set to have a big year so stafford has a ton of weapons. your back field is stacked too and throw in riddick's pass-catching ability and you have all the tools you need to perform well on offense.

alasdair
 
Our biggest current concern is the offensive line (like it is most years...) This time because Taylor Decker managed to injure himself in OTAs and will be out til December. Leave it to a Lion to injure himself during the no-tackle portion of off season training, sigh.
 
yeah, the o line is really starting to gets its due - look at the success of teams like atalanta, dallas and oakland - a lot of their success is due to the quality of their o line. that said, seattle has a pretty weak line and they do alright :)

it's going to be really interesting to see how's cleveland's much-improved o line impacts their success this year.

alasdair
 
How exactly did the Seahawks get better this year? Eddie Lacy made his weight limit on time? Yeah ok...

Earl Thomas was about to retire last year. Sherman isn't as good as he once was. Kam is still amazing. Idk, they don't strike me as the defensive juggernaut they used to be. And their offense was always suspect

Most underrated FA signing this year: Bennie Logan to the Chiefs

The Chiefs defense is going to be stacked this year

I hope Andy Reid finally wins a ring, but probably wont happen this year. This Mahomes kid of w/e better be the real deal or Andy is fucked

I'll take the Packers over the Chiefs in the SB this year
 
As far as the Eagles go, idk man, probably another .500ish year

Probably going to start a rookie CB in Rasul Douglas with Jalen Mills (2nd year)

I think we have some growing pains on Pass Defense this year but show flashes of greatness. Next year, enter Sidney Jones to a 3rd year Jalen Mills (move to slot CB), with a 2nd year Rasul Douglas, and our corners suddenly don't suck anymore. Only problem is that by then, Malcolm Jenkins will be old

Jordan Hicks should make the Pro Bowl this year. I'd bet money I don't have on that happening if he plays in more than 12 games

Our line is... unproven. Fletcher Cox had a down year after getting paid, but he should bounce back. Derek Barnett sounds good, but who really knows. Brandon Graham, god I just don't know sometimes. If he doesn't have a solid year this year (double digit sacks, yeah put up or shut up COULDA HAD EARL THOMAS DAMMIT), I say we move on from him.

Not even sure if Mychal Kendricks is on the team anymore. He isn't fast enough to do what he did best anymore (drop into coverage, chase down runners with his lateral quickness), and he isn't big enough to be a run stopper. So get the fuck out. Sorry, but not sorry. I want some beasts at LB

Carson Wentz has weapons now, he should improve this year.

apparently Nelson Agholor looked good in OTAs. Sweet dude. The Eagles lead the league in 1st round draft busts so I'll hold my excitement until he actually shows the fuck up for games.

Torrey Smith might not be as fast as he used to be, not sure how much he will help.

Alshon Jefferey should have a good year with Wentz, but I hope they don't get too comfortable with each other and Wentz just starts heaving up balls to Alshon for no reason when he gets in trouble (see: he can't avoid pressure for shit) which will lead to interceptions.

You know, back in the day guys like Brett Fabre got away with throwing a lot of INTs because you took the good with the bad. Now, guys like Brady and Rodgers have set the bar so high, you can't just be a gunslinger anymore. You have to be throwing 3-4 TDs a game AND less than 15 picks a year. The level of QB play is just insane anymore. And Idk if Wentz is going to be near that upper echelon of play yet.

Good news is, our schedule is favorable as fuck this year. We got a bye before the game in Dallas, and we play Chicago and Carolina for our 2 other NFC games (as opposed to Dallas who got GB and Atlanta, Giants get Detroit and TB, Washington is irrelevant, ok they got Minnesota and NO)

But, and there's always a but, I still don't know if Doug Pederson is the guy going forward. He seems like the guy who got the head coaching job because everyone else turned it down or went elsewhere. He does have good clock management skills, but he made some pretty questionable calls last year.

All in all, probably an 8-8 year, but I just want to see how our defense plays. And as long as we lose competitive games, I can live with that record this year
 
I feel like Vegas is sleeping on the Dolphins this year, with our over/under set at 7 wins. Yes, we overperformed our talent by going 10-6 last year, but our overperformance occurred as a direct result of our excellent coaching staff with Adam Gase at the helm. We also managed to outperform our talent level despite suffering a ludicrous amount of injuries to key players throughout the year. Reshad Jones, Mike Pouncey, Brandon Albert, and ultimately even Ryan Tannehill either missed significant portions of the season or were knocked out for the year, along with nearly our entire secondary and linebacking corp, which were already deficient to begin with.

Our roster has only seen improvements this offseason. Lawrence Timmons and Reakwon McMillan are better than what we had at linebacker last year (they only need to achieve mediocrity in order to constitute an improvement), Charles Harris adds some depth and athleticism to our defensive end spot, and the return of Reshad Jones, one of the top 3 safeties in the NFL, is sure to bolster a secondary that played surprisingly well last year due to the emergence of some previously unknown and undervalued players. The only spot where our defense is ostensibly weaker is defensive tackle next to Ndamukong Suh, where we are relying on historically unreliable players such as Jordan Phillips.

On offense, the addition of Julius Thomas could be huge. We essentially played without a tight end last season, and Julius Thomas was critically undervalued in his free agency due to playing in a broken system in perennially broken Jacksonville. The receiving corp of Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, and Devante Parker has the potential to be one of the top 5 in the league this season, assuming Parker finally comes into his own, which is a strong possibility. Wide Receiver has perhaps the widest transition from the college level to the NFL, with most receivers not truly hitting their stride until year three (which Parker is going into), where a huge jump in production often occurs. Additionally, habits relating to his diet, fluid intake and sleeping patterns were not addressed until just before last season, so this will be Parker's first full year of good condition.

The offensive line is an enigma, with oft-injured Brandon Albert gone, and Laremy Tunsil sliding over from guard to his much more natural left tackle position. The success of the line ultimately depends on the health of center Mike Pouncey, who has been dealing with lingering hip problems that some say are potentially career threatening. The coaching staff says Pouncey will be ready, but there is ample reason to doubt their optimism. Watching the o-line with and without Pouncey last season was like watching two different teams.

Tannehill is confirmed a good, potentially great quarterback going into this year.

All that said, I'm predicting the Dolphins finish around 9-7 this year. We benefited from a lot of lucky breaks in close games last year, and it is unlikely for that luck to continue into this season. We plugged a lot of our areas of deficiency, but they were so abundant that many of those areas are still deficient. Ultimately, I think we do a much better job hanging with the elites this year, and can even envision us stealing a game off of the Patriots. There's still a gap between Miami and the likes of NE and Pitt, but it has narrowed considerably. Our record still backslides by a game because the luck we had late in games last season will not continue, and what will likely be a tougher schedule this season.
 
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