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Drug Officials Note Cocaine Shortage

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kevz

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Drug Officials Note Cocaine Shortage

By ALICIA A. CALDWELL
The Associated Press
Friday, July 20, 2007; 9:19 PM

EL PASO, Texas -- Wholesale prices of cocaine have risen in more than a dozen major U.S. cities as supplies of the powerful drug have shrunk, including in high-volume markets such as Los Angeles and New York, White House drug czar John Walters said.

But the same federal report that Walters said indicates the short supply also suggests that producers might be stockpiling cocaine in South America or Mexico, perhaps waiting until the time is right to export to the United States.

The scarcity was first noted in a May report by the National Drug Intelligence Center, said Walters, who heads the Office of National Drug Control Policy.

"We've had a number of programs and a number of efforts that have done things at a level that we haven't seen before," he told The Associated Press on Thursday.

The shortage is likely the result of combined enforcement and eradication efforts in the U.S., Mexico and Colombia, the world's largest producer of cocaine, said Walters, who met with intelligence officials in El Paso this week.

The shortage has been tracked largely by sharp price increases and has existed for about two to four months, according to a four-page unclassified summary of the NDIC's findings.

There is also the possibility that cocaine once bound for the U.S. has been redirected to Europe, the report shows.

Sales of other, cheaper drugs may also be climbing as cocaine becomes less affordable. In Ohio, Youngstown Police Chief Jimmy Hughes said officers noticing the recent cocaine shortage also are picking up on other drugs becoming more popular.

Youngstown is one of 26 cities the NDIC report says has had recent cocaine shortages and higher prices.

"We are seeing a lot of replacement drugs," Hughes said. "We're seeing more heroin ... and marijuana, as cocaine has been hard to get."

There is no evidence to suggest that increased U.S. consumption has led to the recent shortages, Walters said.

Colombian officials in April discovered about 27 tons of cocaine buried off the Pacific coast, the largest drug seizure in the country's history. Just a month earlier, the U.S. Coast Guard seized about 38,000 pounds of cocaine off the coast of Panama.

Brief cocaine price surges are not uncommon, said Peter Reuter, a public policy professor at the University of Maryland who studies illicit drugs and organized crime.

"We see short term (price) increases that go on for three, or six months even," Reuter said. "They don't tend to be too long, and then the downward trend continues. I think if it was more than six months, I would start to take a look at it."

The cities named in the report are Albany, N.Y.; Atlanta; Boston; Cleveland; Detroit; Grand Rapids, Mich.; Indianapolis; Los Angeles; Memphis, Tenn.; Milwaukee; Minneapolis; Nashville, Tenn.; New Haven, Conn.; New York; Philadelphia; San Francisco; and Youngstown.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/20/AR2007072002119.html
 
kevz said:
EL PASO, Texas -- Wholesale prices of cocaine have risen in more than a dozen major U.S. cities as supplies of the powerful drug have shrunk, including in high-volume markets such as Los Angeles and New York, White House drug czar John Walters said.
Surrrrrre buddy!!
 
Anyone from LA or NY want to verify that? Has anyone really heard of prices changing?
 
Prices are still the same where I live. Also how do they get the information do they call and survey a bunch of drug dealers?
 
I'm in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area and I haven't seen a change in prices, but the quality has severely dropped in the past year.
 
kevz said:
Drug Officials Note Cocaine Shortage

By ALICIA A. CALDWELL
The Associated Press
Friday, July 20, 2007; 9:19 PM

EL PASO, Texas -- Wholesale prices of cocaine have risen in more than a dozen major U.S. cities as supplies of the powerful drug have shrunk, including in high-volume markets such as Los Angeles and New York, White House drug czar John Walters said.


if they know so much about price and availability, i guess their so called war on drugs is nothing more then a way to sink more money into a failing program.

just more BS from the gvt. are they trying to convience us of the this info or just making it up? I guess making it up as they do with everything else...
 
drew345 said:
Prices are still the same where I live. Also how do they get the information do they call and survey a bunch of drug dealers?
Nah they just call Lindsay ;)
 
what I find ironic is that of the cities listed, none of them are Texas cities. Houston (being the 4th largest city in the nation) surely belongs on that list. And DFW, SA, Austin, etc... are bigger targets than Youngstown, OH.

Could it be that Texas, being so close to the border, is not seeing a decrease in product and/or price increase? Which would put a big dent in their argument now wouldn't it.
 
I think that the only people who would really know about a price increase would be the higher level dealers, who have to pay a little bit more. They then cut it a little bit more in order to get the extra money back, and the consumer notices a decrease in product quality. It's very hard to sell anything like cocaine or marijuana at a markup value, even if the quality is supposedly higher.

Not that I actually believe these statistics either. It's all bullshit and lies to me, as there is no way to really know these things unless you are a consumer. (On the other hand, coming from Walters, maybe he knows this from first hand experience :) ).
 
Prices are the same in Philly. The above poster is correct, the end user will see no increase in price, at least not anytime soon. They'll just see a decrease in quality. That can be dangerous, especially when purity makes a rebound.

I don't take these kinds of articles seriously. A few months ago I posted an article about how purity has increased and prices have dropped.

This guy sums up the situation accurately:

Brief cocaine price surges are not uncommon, said Peter Reuter, a public policy professor at the University of Maryland who studies illicit drugs and organized crime.

"We see short term (price) increases that go on for three, or six months even," Reuter said. "They don't tend to be too long, and then the downward trend continues. I think if it was more than six months, I would start to take a look at it."
 
3 said:
Not that I actually believe these statistics either. It's all bullshit and lies to me,
It's bullshit and lies to everyone. How can anyone rely on statistics from an office that boasts of a 1,000 pill ecstasy bust as a '$25k drug bust'? They do that so often it's not even funny, and once people see things like that, it takes away any chance of your office's stats being seen as reputable.
 
I don't believe there will ever be a shortage in Texas...esp. in Houston, Austin and San Antonio!!! Lately been gettin' fatter sacks and better quality for the same old prices..got to know some Mexicans in the area :)
 
Short of a complete policy change (read: multiplying the drug war's inputs by 1000), there will never be anything besides very minor geographical shortages. How do I know this? Because since the drug war started purity has gone up and prices have gone down, both by very, very significant margins. They will cherry pick little shortages, or publicize a bust, to make it seem like they're actually accomplishing something, but the cold hard truth is they're fighting an unwinnable war. It's simple economics - supply and demand. You can't do much to eliminate demand, and they're clearly not able to do much about supply. Even if they could put real dents in supply, it would BARELY hurt demand, as drug demand has a very, very low price elasticity (demand isn't highly effected by price).
 
John "Pinocchio" Walters is growing a big nose so he doesn't miss any of the cheap and pure cocaine that is available throughout the land.

NYC = $40-50/g, excellent quality. The last major price change was in 1999 when the sellers created an artificial drought because the price had bottomed out on the retail level at $25-30/g and they felt that the risk wasn't worth such a low return.

Walters and his peons are relentless liars beyond any possible redemption.
 
"It's very hard to sell anything like cocaine or marijuana at a markup value, even if the quality is supposedly higher."
At wholesale distribution levels this is true. At retail however, many end users will pay an added tax for quality goods above and beyond the normal price.
 
9mmCensor said:
"It's very hard to sell anything like cocaine or marijuana at a markup value, even if the quality is supposedly higher."
At wholesale distribution levels this is true. At retail however, many end users will pay an added tax for quality goods above and beyond the normal price.
Two things here. First off, it is not very hard to sell drugs at a markup value, regardless of their quality. As I said a couple posts ago, drug demand is highly inelastic, if prices go up, the game continues.

And 9mm, I dunno where you're from, but I've seen just the opposite. Higher level buyers actually understand what they're doing, and have no problem paying higher per load if the quality is higher. Let me give you a hypothetical scenario. If coke is going for $800/oz for cut up crap, but there's a connect with fish scale (very high purity) for $1,000/oz, then the dealer will base their decision upon how much they're paying for the actual coke. If the crap $800/oz is cut up 40%, and the fish scale is damn pure @ $1,000, the dealer will buy the $1000/oz fishscale.

At retail, I've seen the opposite of what you say. At retail levels, I've seen people balk at the idea of dropping $80/gram for fishscale, yet have no problem paying $50-60 for a 'fiddy bag' which is usually ~0.8 and cut to hell.


BTW, where's your avatar dude?
 
bingalpaws said:
At retail, I've seen the opposite of what you say. At retail levels, I've seen people balk at the idea of dropping $80/gram for fishscale, yet have no problem paying $50-60 for a 'fiddy bag' which is usually ~0.8 and cut to hell.

That depends on the drug and end user. Higher grade cannabis is sold at higher prices and it's worth it for certain people. The same can be said about Baltimore's heroin market. Raw is sold at a higher price than scramble, and it definitely has its customers. Also, a similar thing can be seen with some pharmaceuticals. Take generic and brand name OC's for example.


As for the inelastic bit, I disagree with that. It is possible to price people out of the market, which will reduce demand. This can be seen in poorer countries and it could have been seen in the 70's, and 80's in regards to cocaine in this country.
 
bingalpaws said:
Two things here. First off, it is not very hard to sell drugs at a markup value, regardless of their quality. As I said a couple posts ago, drug demand is highly inelastic, if prices go up, the game continues.

And 9mm, I dunno where you're from, but I've seen just the opposite. Higher level buyers actually understand what they're doing, and have no problem paying higher per load if the quality is higher. Let me give you a hypothetical scenario. If coke is going for $800/oz for cut up crap, but there's a connect with fish scale (very high purity) for $1,000/oz, then the dealer will base their decision upon how much they're paying for the actual coke. If the crap $800/oz is cut up 40%, and the fish scale is damn pure @ $1,000, the dealer will buy the $1000/oz fishscale.

At retail, I've seen the opposite of what you say. At retail levels, I've seen people balk at the idea of dropping $80/gram for fishscale, yet have no problem paying $50-60 for a 'fiddy bag' which is usually ~0.8 and cut to hell.


BTW, where's your avatar dude?
Oh wow, I have always noted by stated observations, in my social circle. Different stokes for different folks. Certainly in the marijuana crowd, good bud or hash, its easy for some people to add on a high quality tax, opposed to the regular quality of bud, for something thats really good.

It got taken away. I am afraid of getting banned if I put a new one up.
 
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