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My prediction of the California referendum -- it loses by a very narrow margin.

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Can anyone point me in the direction of a good bookie? I'm fairly convinced I know how the referendum for cannabis legalization in California is going to turn out on Election Day: it will lose by a very, very narrow margin, probably between 1~2%. There will then follow a heated discussion, one side saying that the nation is just not ready for such a bold move, and the other side blaming poor voter turnout. But the status quo will be upheld.

Why do I say this? Because this is the way most big and highly controversial elections I've been alive to witness have turned out: The Gore and Bush presidential election, all votes pertaining to Puerto Rican independence ever held, Quebec secession, and Taiwan's watershed Peace Referendum, which took place when I was living there.

I don't want to sound like a crackpot, but I think this is how vote-rigging works in the so-called civilized world. Defenders of the status quo, who are at a tactical advantage in any controversial ballot, purposely rig the system to win by just a narrow margin, so as to make their opposition think they had a shot of winning (but not good enough of a shot), without raising suspicions of ballot rigging. Because when popular support seems strong for something, and then it loses by a landslide, something's obviously fishy. But when it loses only by 1% of the vote, hey, it was a controversial issue so what do you expect?

For defenders of the status quo in Californian marijuana laws, it's a lot easier to play dirty with this vote (just enough to win), than to let the opposition win and then battle to reverse or deny it.
 
Actually, if the anti-19 stoners get out and vote, it will lose by a lot.

There are two freedoms that are taken away that people are pissed about - currently medical marijuana patients can smoke together, its not illegal. It will be now. Also the vague clause about using around children...

That said, even if it fails in Cali, a full-on legalization is being drafted for those 21+ that doesn't have the restrictions prop 19 does here in Colorado... and it will most definitely pass. The entire city will be storming the capitol if it doesn't... not to mention the hippies are going to come in full force up from Boulder... We seriously have one of the largest 4/20 "let's smoke in front of the capitol" events in the country...

Its already a petty offense here (and has been since at least 2000) which means at the most, 100 dollar fine, no jail, and no record... generally the cops just let you go unless you're an ass - hell they don't even always confiscate the herb!
 
Can anyone point me in the direction of a good bookie?

intrade.com has it at 57.5 right now, which is way up from 35 a few months ago. If you haven't checked out that site, you should. They have created a futures market for all non-sporting events.

On the prop, I think it has a damn good chance of passing. But we'll see.
 
Actually, if the anti-19 stoners get out and vote, it will lose by a lot.

There are two freedoms that are taken away that people are pissed about - currently medical marijuana patients can smoke together, its not illegal. It will be now. Also the vague clause about using around children...

That said, even if it fails in Cali, a full-on legalization is being drafted for those 21+ that doesn't have the restrictions prop 19 does here in Colorado... and it will most definitely pass. The entire city will be storming the capitol if it doesn't... not to mention the hippies are going to come in full force up from Boulder... We seriously have one of the largest 4/20 "let's smoke in front of the capitol" events in the country...

Its already a petty offense here (and has been since at least 2000) which means at the most, 100 dollar fine, no jail, and no record... generally the cops just let you go unless you're an ass - hell they don't even always confiscate the herb!

weed is legal in denver, techniqually techniqually not, you have mason tvert of safer to thank for that
 
^^that is just its trading price, but it can be interpreted that way as predictions from the site are often right. IE if you buy it now, and it passes, you get $136 for every $100 you invested. If you buy it and it doesn't pass, you loose all your money. People can also do the opposite and short sale, betting that it will loose. In that case, they make 164 for every 100 invested.
 
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