Harm Reduction Article looking at overdose trends

[tryptakid]

Peak OD Phenotypes

Overdoses peaked in 2022-3 in most states. New data.

opioiddatalab.ghost.io

Overdoses seem to have dropped abruptly and we seek explanations. But when did declines actually start? Surprisingly, nearly all states declined gradually after peaking in 2022-3. The revised timeline has policy implications. Yet, this is not a celebration since we continue to lose too many people we love. Instead of our standard monthly newsletter, we want to follow-up on our two previous analyses.

We find that the drop in overdose deaths started in nearly all states in 2022-23. Most states had already reached peak OD well before major cross-national DEA actions (Operation Blue Lotus, Operation Apollo, Operation Plaza Strike, etc.). The declines started before the 2024 arrests of Sinaloa Cartel bigwigs. The "evidence" proffered by DEA for the drop is less fentanyl per pill:

The cartels have reduced the amount of fentanyl they put into pills because of the pressure we are putting on them... For first time since 2021, DEA has seen a decrease in the potency of fentanyl pills. The latest DEA laboratory testing indicates 5 out of 10 pills tested in 2024 contain a potentially deadly dose [2 mg] of fentanyl. This is down from 7 out of ten pills in 2023 and 6 out of ten pills in 2022.
Source: DEA Press Release, November 15, 2024

Lot of interesting stuff to dig into...