The 2017/2018 NFL thread

[pharmakos]

Well Cam was offensive rookie of the year, offensive player of the year, league MVP, (he’s the only qb ever to do that), has 3 division titles, a NFC championship, went 15-1, and has the most rushing touchdowns for any qb in nfl history.

and he still doesn’t get credit.

So I’d say Case has a little more to prove as of right now.

i would agree that Cam is underrated. mostly because his QB "style" is very different. traditional metrics of QB performance don't necessarily do him justice.

 

[mal3volent]

i would agree that Cam is underrated. mostly because his QB "style" is very different. traditional metrics of QB performance don't necessarily do him justice.

Preach. I am the first to admit, I am a Cam fanboy. Totally biased in every way, but it’s good that most of the facts happen to line up with my blind admiration. Stats can be bullshit, especially QBR. I immediately lose respect for any pundit that even speaks those letters consecutively.

As convoluted as qbr is, even basic shit can be misinterpreted or misleading. Everyone loves the stat buffet. Take what you want, leave what you don’t.

Case is in a good spot though. Green Bay won’t have Rodgers forever and he’s going to leave a huge void in the nfc north when he goes.

 

[alasdairm]

but the guy lead the Vikings to a 13-3 record in the regular season and will now be playing in the NFC Championship game. how much more proof does he have to give? it's getting a little ridiculous.

i totally agree.

he was 7th overall in qb rating. 2nd in completion percentage. and his td to int ratio was 22-7 (pi! 3.14)

he had an outstanding year by any measure.

to put that in perspective, compare that with your man cam newton, mal3. 24th, 28th and 22-16 (1.38)

alasdair

 

[cj]

It sucks Wentz got hurt. Eagles have the most talented team this year and walk to the super bowl with him at qb. I still feel we have a good shot against Minnesota but I don't see us beating the pats or jags

 

[mal3volent]

i totally agree.

he was 7th overall in qb rating. 2nd in completion percentage. and his td to int ratio was 22-7 (pi! 3.14)

he had an outstanding year by any measure.

to put that in perspective, compare that with your man cam newton, mal3. 24th, 28th and 22-16 (1.38)

alasdair

Dude we just got done talking about how stats can be misleading. Qbr is total nonsense and the fact that you even reference it proves you are talking out of your ass. Can you explain qbr to me?

Wins, losses, scoring more points than the other team. That’s what matters. Carolina came up short in that respect again this year...but then again they did beat Minnesota and New England. The Saints had our number this year and that’s all there is to it.

 

[JahSEEuS]

especially QBR. I immediately lose respect for any pundit that even speaks those letters consecutively.

lol.

i totally agree.

he was 7th overall in qb rating....

alasdair

so he spells out "rating" lol.

probably unintentional, but still funny.

 

[cj]

Cams the most overrated player in the game. He's not a team leader. He can't handle adversity. He's not accurate with the ball more then 10 yards down the field. He's just not a top 5 qb. He's in the 10-15 qb range in that he's serviceable but he will never pass you to win. Carolina may have some good years but everything will have to fall exactly right.

In cams defense his oline was terrible this year. He got killed in the pocket

 

[alasdairm]

Dude we just got done talking about how stats can be misleading. Qbr is total nonsense and the fact that you even reference it proves you are talking out of your ass. Can you explain qbr to me?

your saltiness is on display again.

qb rating is very straightforward. the rating is a function of 5 key metrics: attempts; completions; yards; touchdowns; and interceptions. here's the actual formula used by the nfl:

so it tries to objectively weight those metrics to come up with a single index against which different passing performances can be measured. the min is 0 and the max is 158.3.

so, blake bortles this weekend was 14 of 26 for 214 yards, 1 td and 0 ints for a rating of 94. pretty good.

to put in context with a poor game, in week 5 ben roethlisberger was 33 of 55 for 312 yards, 0 tds and 5 ints for a rating of 38. not very good.

to put in context with a great game, in week 2 tom brady was 30 of 39 for 447 yards, 3 tds and 0 ints for a rating of 139.

here's a calculator if you want to try a few of your own to compare: The ORIGINAL Quarterback Rating Calculator

so you say i'm talking out of my ass and this is total nonsense? help me understand what your problem is with this rating mechanism? how would you better try to objectively measure the performance of a quarterback? i can actually think of one area it couple be improved but i'll wait to hear your analysis.

Wins, losses, scoring more points than the other team. That’s what matters.

right. but you're missing the point.

wins and losses are a measure of team performance. we're talking about performance at one position. of course qb performance contributes to team performance but, for a single position, we need to use a different set of metrics.

alasdair

 

[mal3volent]

Cams the most overrated player in the game. He's not a team leader. He can't handle adversity. He's not accurate with the ball more then 10 yards down the field. He's just not a top 5 qb. He's in the 10-15 qb range in that he's serviceable but he will never pass you to win. Carolina may have some good years but everything will have to fall exactly right.

In cams defense his oline was terrible this year. He got killed in the pocket

link to all the people who has been overrating Cam?

 

[mal3volent]

your saltiness is on display again.

qb rating is very straightforward. the rating is a function of 5 key metrics: attempts; completions; yards; touchdowns; and interceptions. here's the actual formula used by the nfl:

so it tries to objectively weight those metrics to come up with a single index against which different passing performances can be measured. the min is 0 and the max is 158.3.

so, blake bortles this weekend was 14 of 26 for 214 yards, 1 td and 0 ints for a rating of 94. pretty good.

to put in context with a poor game, in week 5 ben roethlisberger was 33 of 55 for 312 yards, 0 tds and 5 ints for a rating of 38. not very good.

to put in context with a great game, in week 2 tom brady was 30 of 39 for 447 yards, 3 tds and 0 ints for a rating of 139.

here's a calculator if you want to try a few of your own to compare: The ORIGINAL Quarterback Rating Calculator

so you say i'm talking out of my ass and this is total nonsense? help me understand what your problem is with this rating mechanism? how would you better try to objectively measure the performance of a quarterback? i can actually think of one area it couple be improved but i'll wait to hear your analysis.

right. but you're missing the point.

wins and losses are a measure of team performance. we're talking about performance at one position. of course qb performance contributes to team performance but, for a single position, we need to use a different set of metrics.

alasdair

thats you regurgitating some shit you found and putting numbers into a calculator, not understanding the statistic. I want to know what every number in the formula means. Why it?s there. And how can I know all this is done correctly before someone slaps the rating on the qb? I mean really, it?s pretty absurd. Someone decided one aspect of a qbs game should be weighted like this, under these factors. Haven?t they changed how they evaluate it several times already? Hasn?t Brady and Rodgers and their like come out behind Johnny Manziel and Tim Tebow...it?s convoluted, and I?ve never read a defense of it that tells me why we need it and how it is measured.

 

[pharmakos]

mal3volent, the QBRating formula leaves out QB rushing yards. That probably detracts from Cam's apparent worth with some significance.

 

[alasdairm]

^ the nfl passer rating does not but espn's qbr does take them into acount. which is what i was referring to when i wrote: "i can actually think of one area it couple be improved".

mal3volent, the formula is there and it's pretty straightforward - it simply calculates the ratios of completions to attempts, yards to attempts, touchdowns to attempts and interceptions to attempts and then weights them. if you don't get that, then i can't really help you beyond that. one could certainly debate the relative weights but that doesn't make the whole thing nonsense.

you made the claim that it's "total nonsense" so i invite you to support that claim.

Haven?t they changed how they evaluate it several times already?

at this point, i think it's important to differentiate between nfl passer rating and qbr. i initially thought you were referring to the former but perhaps you're referring to the latter. the nfl passer rating was adopted as the official nfl measure of quarterback rating in the early 70s. as far as i am aware, the method for calculating passer rating has not changed.

there's another measure used by espn which is proprietary and they call it "total quarterback rating" or qbr. passer rating is a function of the 5 metrics i mentioned earlier. qbr takes into account the 'difficulty' of each play (among other things).

as mentioned earlier, the espn total qb rating does take into account rushing yards so, if anything, it's a better measure for comparing more mobile quarterbacks like cam newton.

Hasn?t Brady and Rodgers and their like come out behind Johnny Manziel and Tim Tebow...

tom brady's and aaron rodgers' lifetime nfl passer ratings are 97.6 and 103.8 respectively. johnny manziel's and tim tebow's are 74.4 and 75.3 so rodgers and brady are way ahead of the other two lifetime.

...why we need it...

i've already explained why i think it's needed.

...and how it is measured.

my previous post demonstrates precisely how it's measured.

alasdair

 

[mal3volent]

I wasn’t talking about passer rating or any of the more well established statistics. I was talking about what I’ve always known as qbr. And from what I’ve read in the past, they take into consideration some pretty stupid metrics. But it’s whatever. I just want to know if Cam sucks as much as your stats says he does, how did he even make it to the playoffs? And they got there, what, a couple wins behind Tom? “The best ever”. If quarterbacks are by far the most impactful players on their teams, and there’s such a huge discrepancy between Cam and Toms stats, how did they land so close at the end?

 

[alasdairm]

...they take into consideration some pretty stupid metrics.

can you give a couple of examples?

you said i was talking out of my ass and that qbr is total nonsense. as far as i can tell, that's hyperbole.

I just want to know if Cam sucks as much as your stats says he does, how did he even make it to the playoffs? And they got there, what, a couple wins behind Tom? “The best ever”. If quarterbacks are by far the most impactful players on their teams, and there’s such a huge discrepancy between Cam and Toms stats, how did they land so close at the end?

because now we're talking about team performance and a single season.

alasdair

 

[mal3volent]

Like I told you they change it so often it is impossible to keep up with. ESPN also is not completely transparent about every aspect of the process because they want to have control over it. That’s understandable from a business perspective, but it’s pretty shady that a corporation so intertwined with the NFL also possesses the ability to flood the football analytics world with its own made up formula.

They used to rate the “clutchness” of certain plays. They had a scale, but then they changed it. They’ve probably changed it again since the last time I looked. They factor in subjective shit like garbage time and performance under pressure. I’m not saying those things don’t exist or don’t matter, I’m saying how they choose to weight it can have a huge impact. Every individual player and team behaves differently under certain circumstances. You can’t just give one qb extra credit for performing well in a particular scenario then maybe overlook or not emphasize as harshly another aspect of their game that perhaps they aren’t as good at.

 

[mal3volent]

because now we're talking about team performance and a single season

are we? Basically what you’re saying is, the Panthers have been carrying Cam when we all know Cam has more often carried the Panthers. I think you are dodging my question. Teams tend to go as their qb goes. If theres such a huge gap between Tom and Cam based on those numbers you claim are so relevant, why did they land so close to each other? Also keeping in mind the Panthers bested the Patriots in their own building.

 

[alasdairm]

I’m not saying those things don’t exist or don’t matter, I’m saying how they choose to weight it can have a huge impact.

of course. i don't believe i've said anything different.

If theres such a huge gap between Tom and Cam based on those numbers you claim are so relevant, why did they land so close to each other?

because now you're talking about team performance and a single season.

career, tom brady is 222 and 64 (.776). cam newton is 65 and 49 (.570). that's a huge difference in ratio and one game or one season doesn't change that.

Also keeping in mind the Panthers bested the Patriots in their own building.

one game dude. the panthers lost to the bears earlier this season. so now you'll join me in claiming the bears are a better team than the panthers?

i think we're at an impasse. you think cam newton just doesn't get the respect he deserves. got it. let's move on?

alasdair

 

[mal3volent]

We’re only at an impasse because you keep tap dancing around the point. But it’s okay.

 

[alasdairm]

i'm not tap dancing around anything. i have answered all your questions. you just don't like the answers.

i'm going to butt out. you seem too angry to me.

roll on sunday!

i think jags are a tough test but i look forward to a pats victory, made all the sweeter with mal3volent's tears

alasdair

 

[mal3volent]

I don’t think I ever said they would lose against Jacksonville. Pretty sure I said they would lose the Super Bowl.

I mean, I know Tom was out there yesterday talking about how the Jags will be the toughest test they’ve had all year. Very convincing.

I think the Jags defense should use this play.